Member Info for buchanan101

Fair value...(that'll do...)

2,122.9291p

26% discount

Updated 14/11/2023

The whole market is up - even Aston Martin...

Yet CVSG is down... what the actual!

But banks also have to pay more for the money.

The Net Interest Margin is a metric they are measured on, and it's around 3% at the moment, but dropping slightly as they are having to pay more to get the money in to lend out

Comment on Lloyds last week

"The percentage that banks profit from loans and savings, a key measure of lending profitability called net interest margin, rose to 3.15% from 2.84% in the same three quarters in 2022.

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The difference between the interest lenders receive from loans and the rate they pay depositors is captured by net interest margin.

But the high of the nine months to September was not consistent - in the final three months that margin dropped to 3.08%."

What do they know we don't - or what do we know they don't...

Hopefully it's the latter

I might half jump off at 1700p...

Not just that - many of the Covid pets are breeds that are problematic...bulldogs for example. Anything with short noses or lots of flappy skin...

OH is a vet, if I haven't mentioned that before ;)

The big money is in referrals - she went to visit Dick White's referral centre last week - HUGE referral business at Six Mile Bottom near Cambridge.

Any Brexit failure is due to politicians lying about what it could achieve. It was all nonsense; France and Germany aren't doing their best to ensure its failure - reality does that; wanting the benefits of being in the single market without actually being in it was all fantasy. Most people weren't that bothered about EU membership - where did it rank on a list of concerns in 2010? - until Cameron wanted to keep his party together by appealing to its fringe - who were never going to be happy. And still aren't.

Have any of you lot even looked up the meaning of woke?

And as for Farage - 80% of people really don't give a toss what he thinks or does

Why would there be a significant number of legal actions about account closures. They weren't found to have acted illegally for Farage

Much more relevant for banks is potential defaulting on loans they've made

"NatWest reported that in third quarter of 2023, total income rose to GBP3.49 billion from GBP3.23 billion a year earlier. Operating pretax profit rose to GBP1.33 billion from GBP1.09 billion. Looking ahead, NatWest expects to return significant capital via dividend and buybacks in the medium term. "Today's Q3 2023 results show that NatWest is a strong bank which is performing well, generating sustainable profits and returns."

How on earth does this drop the SP by 10%+?

Currently yielding 7.53% dividend - so if you buy now and hold, and assuming div in absolute terms holds, you'll be getting 7.53% every year on your investment...

...anyway that's what I told myself before buying some!!

Of course smaller dividend means more to reinvest. The *theory* is that dividend payout % has little effect on overall long term return to the shareholder. But a small % payout does make it less attractive to some investors..

I'm quite happy that they keep the money to reinvest as demand for vet services is only going to increase...all those Covid pets getting to ages when they start to need more expensive treatments

Maybe general market decline of up to 10% hasn't helped...

Becoming a target for a takeover?

Have to sit on my ~£4k's worth of shares for now...

Oil price effects are in their recent Q3 report.

Per quarter 10% change in fuel price affects income or loss by $ 55million, (so $210m/year). I guess the feeling is that increased fuel costs won't just affect costs but also reduce demand as fuel costs hit discretionary spending, hence sp movements greater than can be explained just from costs

The report is very positive (OK they always will be, but occupancy for example is 109% (that's a lot of 3rd berths), and a policy is to sell further and further ahead - indeed Cunard are trying to sell me Summer 2025 cruises.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/CCL/carnival-corporation-3q-2023-earnings-e0bybicfrj7q6ok.html

Easy if we know what the margin is at as particular oil price....

$250,000 for 5000 passengers though.. $50 a head

Assuming one of the ugly megaships... probably the same, or more for a QM2 crossing (heavier per passenger/faster) with half the number of passengers. $100 a head... sounds the right sort of order given ticket prices

I thought mostly due to oil price (and the sp has gone up between my post and yours as the oil price drops).

It's been over $100 a few times in the past https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil

I find it strange that the international benchmark for oil is an oil that comes out of the North Sea

Oh yes, QG is rather good (first crossing/cruise last October - managed to persuade the OH).

Downgrading to PG on QA next June - not intending to be in cabin much in June, and be interesting to see if the food is in any way inferior. Better grills on deck facilities on QA compared with QM2

Anyway - I guess this is share chat - I should have sold my shares a couple of months ago (still up as bought in 2020)...but is now a buying opportunity?

The Verandah steak house is worth a visit - we were also in Queens Grill on a QM2 crossing and went there once

"The industry remains very buoyant and likely to continue to be very recession proof despite the obvious challenges due to tough economic background".

Precisely. The Covid pets are only just starting to get to the age where more serious problems only just start to appear. Demand for vet services will only increase over at least the next 5 years