Member Info for buchanan101

..it's starting to move in a consistent fashion

LNG still not enough for UNESCO world heritage Norwegian fjords... need to be electric powered ships for 2025 onwards, hence our trip on the Queen Anne next summer...

@Bhants

Indeed I understand the cost outweighing the benefit - hedging is basically an insurance, and the people providing the insurance have to make money. If Carnival are big enough to ride out the spikes then they should save money in the long run.

Their share price should therefore be influenced to some degree by fuel price changes - and it has been recently, but probably more as a result of how fuel price changes are seen to affect the longer term macro economic outlook. Judging by bookings it seems that people still want to cruise despite Ukraine/Gaza/etc...

@Bhants - surely if they don't hedge fuel costs they are MORE susceptible to current price fluctuations, so the SP should move more in line with current oil prices not less

I see why they don't hedge as hedging is a form of insurance, and like all insurance it has to be paid for

"But the problem is that JOG/AB might decide to retain a sizeable chunk of each years net profit for their expansion aspirations for the company and not distribute as dividends"

How is that a problem? Dividends v investment should have no effect on the value for a shareholder (that's the simplistic theory anyway) - one gives income, one gives share value increase (in an ideal world), and both discounted to the present day should ...in theory...be of equal value.

I expect to be shot down on this - and I know we are in the real, not ideal, world - but investing for expansion should not be a "problem" - if you want the money, your shares *should* be worth more due to the investment - so sell them....

Yes @dickupham. It's only a repeat of what was written earlier in the week in an isolated article, but now it's in the online and print versions of IC. And it's the lead article in the app for tis issue

Interesting that risked NAV is referred to...which should already include an estimate for the risks involved

Volumes and number of trades are tiny this morning.

will that stay the same when issues of IC land? The highlighted story in the online version is ST's article

...the shares didn't budge!

Don't think so - all valuations seem to be saying 2.5x to 4x under

My last small top up this morning. Have to leave it there, tempting as it is to stake more

...tempting me in to buying some more...

wondering like Donkey whether someone is starting to try to get a significant holding in advance of a TO? What % of shares is realistically available to Joe Public?

Also @MP0818 IC are saying similar

Major catalysts may have come and gone, but has that info been fully digested?

There obviously should be a some sort of discount for risk and NPV calcs - but it's only 3 years away from start of production so is a discount of 3x or 4x from NAV realistic once the news has been fully digested?

(Does the NAV calculated by the two organisations quoted in IC include the NPV calculation?... it should)

If it falls to 50p you buy more shares and wait 3 years

Just like anyone who bought Shell in 2020 has done...

Hopefully that is the short termers first thing this morning. I should have realised that would happen and delayed buying more shares until today...

Is £5.29 (from yesterday).

I only have enough shares that that price would give me enough to pay for my cruise next year... wish i could risk more...

Serica has been dropping recently until yesterday - are they a good buy (opinions...?)

Yesterday was second most traded stock on ii.co.uk (64% buy)

So the markets are fairly aware, or at least ii.co.uk users are

Top traded Vodafone - 93% buy (after its 3% fall I assume)

Almost sold these the other day, given they seemed to be doing as well as Cleantech Lithium...also recommended by IC.. Had doubled up on both given IC continuing to recommend both

Bought some more today though; luckily

OK PC01..

Just bought some more and will hold on to them until >£4

I bet someone is making a fair bit of money out of all these ups and downs

A takeover of the Mars/Hotel Chocolat premium level (170%) would be good...

That'll do...

Fair value estimate

1,800.00p

44% discount

Updated 02/10/2023