Member Info for Brumm1875

Used to have very large holding but sold it at a very large loss a few months ago. Management have been very poor, over promising (market size) and under delivering (small number of billable tests). The CFO, a personal friend of the CEO, left it too late to shore up the balance sheet and should have been replaced a long time ago. Anyway, commercialisation has been very disappointing with just a few thousands tests sold annually and little evidence of the sales taking off. Despite the cost cutting efforts, revenues generated are not enough to make this a viable business. The best thing would have been a take over by a larger diagnostic/dialysis group with a sizeable sales force but that didn’t happen either . Now expect a massively dilutive small fund raise will keep this sad show on the road for a little longer.

Fantastic news. The move to the new, larger, state of the art facility now done, another big contract signing, the capital market day to come and big volumes of share traded … We will soon be back above 30p, on the way to 40p !

Some very large trades went through this afternoon around 27p. Blocks of 350k, 165k & 70k shares . Looks like institutions are loading up ahead of analysts/investors visit of the new Canary Wharf facility planned for mid-July. This event and some contract news might be the catalysts needed to take the share price above 30p. DYOR

This is the first time Futura Medical & Eroxon are specifically mentioned in a major research note on Haleon. Berenberg aren’t a Micky Mouse research house as they cover UK and European mid-large caps with sales offices in London, New York, Frankfurt etc . This is a very significant development for Futura IMHO as it will brings it to the attention of institutional investors who are clients of Berenberg. 40p has been a share price resistance up to now but expect it to be broken as soon as the timing of the US launch becomes clearer. In the meantime, Coopers are continuing the roll out of Eroxon launches in EU countries. We’ll get a sales update in September. Exciting times ahead.

Berenberg initiated coverage of consumer health company Haleon on Wednesday with a 'buy' rating and 407.0p price target, stating that its investment case was based in part on the US launch of Eroxon, which it expects to drive better-than-expected organic sales growth of 5.8% in 2025.

Berenberg said the opportunity from the US launch of Eroxon - the first-ever over-the-counter erectile dysfunction topical cream - was "substantial". It noted that among men of all ages, 20% suffer from ED, but the condition was more pronounced in older age groups, as 50% of over 40s experience ED.

"Importantly, 80% of men who suffer from ED are not taking any treatment, meaning the addressable market for Eroxon is significant," it said. "We conservatively estimate that the US rollout will improve group organic sales by an average of 0.8pp in its first five years (2025-29). We note that there are already encouraging signs from the rollout of Eroxon in the UK and Belgium, with the brand gaining 20% share in its first 12 months."

The bank's investment case was also based on Haleon's exposure to attractive categories that it expects to grow 4.6% in the medium term, above Berenberg's forecast sector average of 4.1%; and the stock trading on a valuation discount of 17% to key household and personal care (HPC) peers. Berenberg also noted that Haleon trades on a 12-month forward price-to-earnings of 17.3x.

RNS out this morning showing JPM Asset Management have raised their stake in HVO from 3% to over 5%. Another price of evidence showing that institutional investors are supporting the company. As we say in the City: “Follow the money”

A tot of c. 400k shares went through just before the close at 1.02p . The auction price of 0.8p was just for 8.6k shares

Stt1

You state :

“CF dumped the majority of his holding in ONE go!! He bought 1m at 26.5p over 2.5yrs ago, which had just gone into profit.

That selling majority in ONE go, for a company supposedly growing strongly is not usual.”

My reply:

If you care to read the RNS regarding the placing (below) , you’ll see that CF and the related Directors DIDN’T SELL THE MAJORITY OF THEIR SHAREHOLDING IN ONE GO as you claim but “approximately 25% of their current shareholding” i.e. THEY RETAIN c. 75 % OF THEIR SHAREHOLDING” so either you didn’t bother to read the RNS or you’re lying. You obviously have an agenda against HVO which is your business but stop spreading lies and move on.

RNS

hVIVO plc (AIM & Euronext: HVO), the world leader in testing infectious and respiratory disease products using human challenge clinical trials, announces that it has been informed by certain Directors of the Company of their intention to sell, in aggregate, not less than 14,000,000 ordinary shares of 0.1 pence each ("Ordinary Shares") in the capital of Company (the "Placing Shares"), representing approximately 25% of their current shareholding, at a price of 28 pence per Placing Share (the "Placing") in order to satisfy strong institutional demand.

Each of Raglan Road Capital Limited and Raglan Securities Limited (two investment vehicles of Cathal Friel, Co-Founder and Chairman), Pamela Iyer (Cathal Friel's spouse), Horizon Medical Technologies Limited (an investment vehicle controlled by Cathal Friel but of which neither he nor his spouse has any beneficial ownership) and Brendan Buckley (Co-Founder and Non-Executive Director) (together, the "Selling Shareholders"), intend to participate in the Placing as the selling shareholders.

Stt1 .

Having a majority/controlling shareholder selling down his holding to other institutional investors is quite common and not necessarily a red flag. Look at Ryanair for example which was IPO in 1997. Mitchael O'Leary, the CEO used to own 18% of the airline then. Over the years, he has been steadily reducing his stake to 3.9% today. When the business was listed it was still loss making and about to turn profitable. Today Ryanair is by far the biggest (€23bn valuation) and most profitable airline in Europe (€13bn revenue, €1.7bn net profit) and still growing strongly. O’Leary’s 3.9% stake is worth a cool €900m today and he has been able to use his wealth to invest in other ventures (e.g. horse racing). Estate planning, spreading your investments & mitigating risk is part and parcel of the lives of successful entrepreneurs and wealthy investors. CF is doing exactly that. Although he has sold down his stake he remains a substantial investor in HVO and like the rest of us shareholders is looking forward to making money from his shareholding.

As for the CEO & CFO receiving stock options these are quite common to incentivise and retain the top management in competitive sectors . Look at RELX , for example, where I used to work (2010-18). The long standing CEO & CFO have received big stock options year in year out . In the meantime the share price has gone up from c. £5 in 2010 (when I joined) to £35 today. These two are still there, delivering great returns for shareholders and making themselves very rich in the process .

Reckon you should move on and deramp somewhere else .

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ryanair-flotation-to-place-300m-value-on-company-1.69666

The recent pull back in the share price is quite normal and healthy IMHO given the strong run over the past 12 month and the time needed to digest the recent stock placing. Having new institutional investors on board is a positive as they can see the strong fundamentals of the business over the medium term (growth market, HVO market leadership, improving margins, strong cash generation and balance sheet, income distribution etc) . Their support will be key to take HVO to the next level as they expand organically and via M&A. Have topped up my holding just above 25p and look forward to April when we’ll get the detailed 2023 results and dividend declaration.

Decent sized buy today. Time to bottom fish at these levels?

Investec have raised their price target to 38p (from 27p) this morning. The average price target from the 6 analysts covering the stock is 33.6p with the lowest at 29p and the highest at 38p.

23m shares traded on Nasdaq at 4.30pm. That’s about 25% of the issued shares. Pretty impressive. Need to close about $3 tonight to target next resistance at $3.50. Fingers crossed !

I am as disappointed as any other shareholders by this presentation & Q&A. We did not get any clarity on funding, strategy, partnerships, milestones etc. It felt like they have almost given up with no fight left in them.

The bottom line is we still need to approve the lifting of the ceiling from 40% to 100% of issued capital for future capital increase to give them optionality. I would not be surprised if they have already a partner lined e.g. Merck to buy new shares, conditional to this approval.

It’s a right mess atm, but I still believe there is great value in 4D. The problem is when & who will be able to cristallise it.

Are you talking about POLX or ORPH? I cannot see the TR-1 on LSE. Where did you see that, please? Thanks

The CEO also confirmed that they expect Liberum to be appointed as the new Nomad for ORPH in the next couple of weeks, once the due diligence work is complete. Shame this issue has overshadowed the good RNS today about the contract win.

Personally, I would like the presentation to coincide with a major RNS. Following the recent partnership announcement for Korea, Management hinted that they were now working on a deal “closer to home”. To me , this means a partnership deal for EU/UK were they already have received clearance with the EC Mark. It is bad time they put flesh on the bone and unveil their commercial strategy for Europe, including the UK. Ideally, we will hear about partners, launch dates and possible milestone payments & royalties. GLA

Align have not sold a single share but have been slightly diluted by the recent increase in total of number Corcel shares in issue resulting from the recent conversion of debt for equity.

The last RNS said that they had to postpone the release of their full year results (to the end of June 2021) to « before the end of December » due to the change of auditors & Covid related issues. Expect investors are now anticipating these results anytime. Personally, I expect a big accounting kitchen sink with some asset write-offs but this is backward looking so not worried. The new management have had time to work on a new strategy and will probably announce some new business & financial targets. Exciting times ahead!

You’re welcome Blue83. I used to work as a fund manager in the City so I know how volatile & unpredictable the market can be during the Summer lull. Anyway, on Nasdaq the stock has already recovered from -22% to -5% currently. Fingers crossed this was just a storm in a tea cup!