courtesy of Lazarus65 HC24 May 2018 17:27
Lazarus65 said: ↑
The complexity of potential outcomes is further accentuated by the various investment objectives of shareholders. I tend to over-simplify it in my mind, so that I can derive a strategy that I can live with. And that is that a) HRZ is the main game and there is no dispute that oil is down there in vast quantities (remember the beakers; remember the DeMac report); and b) conventional is the icing on the cake, albeit a thick layer of icing and also albeit an icing likely to be tasted before the main cake is baked.
So what? Well, it looks like a conventional farmout on some of the icing is imminent, and is designed to not only progress the project but also start to return some (see through) value to shareholders. An opportunity for investors to derisk, or free carry or just bask in the paper profit. And for some, to exit with strong gain. For the remaining (and new) investors, time and treasure to bake the cake would have been bought by the company. After all properly creaming the curve still takes time, particularly when venturing off-piste on the tundra, as they will have to do at some point for delineation purposes.
Which brings us to 2V flow test as the imminent next step in the cake baking. Noting point a) above, even a �failure� with the flow test is not the end of the journey. A setback yes, but nothing terminal. Not in the least IMO. Remember the beakers and the DeMac report. It is a prospective resource because the extraction technique has not been established yet. But it is an engineering challenge that is not rocket science. If 2V fails, the knowledge it will provide will help the 3v/h test well. And if that is sub-optimal, then the 4v/h test well will be the richer for it. My point being that the nut will be cracked. Even if 2V flows better than the 100 bopd hurdle rate, much has been learned to improve the next well (2H?).
The see-through valuation upgrade provided by the conventional farmout will provide investors with a means to risk adjust their exposure to the longer cake baking journey.
IMO. As always, DYOR & GLTA.