Member Info for Brasso3

Can PPC end this miserable downtrend this week with some positive news?

- DP 2001 flow rates?
- DP 2003 on production?
- US wells back online?
- Argentina reserves report?
- 2021 unaudited results?
- Paraguay spud date?

My guess is the first 2 bullets of news will be released but it will take all of the above to get this back to 2p.

I guess nobody told you that money is paid up front for drilling wells! The money will already be with the contractor/ Escrow account.

The truth is that nobody has any clue how much money PPC will have in the bank. Past form would suggest not much.

We are half way through Q1 and only 1 of the 3 wells is online at unknown flow rates. The 2nd well might be online by the end of February. The 3rd well has not even spudded.

The US wells have been offline for more than 6 months.

The 3 wells will now cost $11m but were originally budgeted at $3.5m per well.

26th Jan RNS:-

'President expresses its sincere appreciation of the support of the Salta Province and its authorities in its endeavours both in relation to the current US$11 million three well drilling programme'

The bond raised $9m and the 3 well programme in Argentina has cost $11m so far. Where is the other $7m coming from for the additional 2 wells?

Lets see if the first 3 wells are successful before we start making assumptions about the further 2. How much cash does PPC have now? How far over budget are the DP wells and US wells? What does PPC need to have put aside for Paraguay?

I expect production will peak around 3200 - 3400 BOEPD (Q1/Q2) once the Argntine 3 wells/ US wells are on production then we will have a decline though 2022. PPC will need to start to build up some cash as contingency for the Paraguay drill which could of course go over budget .

3000 Barrels of Oil Equivalent per Day (BOEPD) includes the gas. 2021 production should be around 2700 BOEPD.

If we get a February update I am sure there will be no production forecasts for 2022. PPCs forecasts are meaningless anyway but I doubt they will leave them exposed to criticism on that front again.

If 2 of the Argentina wells are commercial then I expect average production for 2022 to be around 3000 BOEPD.

NM

When the 2021 accounts get published I am willing to bet that that is less than $2m in the bank at year end (excluding the cash from the recent $9m bond).

13th Jan RNS:-

'In Louisiana, whilst delays in the workover is frustrating to shareholders and management alike, they are all part of working in deep wells and are no-ones fault. The permission from the State to re-complete the well is hoped to be received soon relating to plugging back and perforating a section higher up the hole. Work is expected to commence as expeditiously as possible thereafter and the Company will give an update at or around the end of this month.'

We are now in February and still it appears none of the new wells are online. All 3 wells were supposed to be in production by January.

22nd Sept RNS:-

Drilling of the first well is now expected to commence by the end of the third week in October with drilling of all three wells expected to be completed by the end of the year with the final well in that sequence expected to be on stream in the first part of January 2022.

PPC share price reflects the financial performance (revenue/ EBITDA in this case) over the last 3 years:-

Revenue
2018 - $47m
2019 - $40m
2020 - $27m

EBITDA
2018 - $17m
2019 - $11m
2020 - $2m

Hopefully 2021 revenue/ EBITDA will be a change in direction. Unfortunately we have to wait until the end of May to get formal confirmation.

EBITDA for H1 2021 (interims) was $4.5m.

Not only did production not show any growth they missed 2021 forecasts by 30%. The 2021 target production was 3600 - 4000 BOEPD. Furthermore 2020 production was a higher oil:gas ratio compared to 2021. PPC got lucky that oil prices were high in 2021 otherwise there would have been another placing.

Thanks to Piperpeter on ADVFN:-

REPORTE DE PRODUCCCION.
PRESIDENT PETROLEUM S.A.
NEQUINA + NOROESTE.

Enero '21...........Petroleo 9.203,441 [m3]
Febrero '21.........Petroleo 7.610,289 [m3]
Marzo '21...........Petroleo 7.904,337 [m3]
Abril '21...........Petroleo 8.283,923 [m3]
Mayo '21............Petroleo 9.053,542 [m3]
Junio '21...........Petroleo 8.323,987 [m3]
Julio '21...........Petroleo 8.422,365 [m3]
Agosto '21..........Petroleo 8.391,015 [m3]
Septiembre '21......Petroleo 7.814,645 [m3]
Octubre '21.........Petroleo 7.574,273 [m3]
Noviembre '21.......Petroleo 7.323,696 [m3]
Diciembre '21.......Petroleo 7.831,326 [m3]

Enero '21...........Gas 5.226,979 [Miles de m3]
Febrero '21.........Gas 4.726,241 [Miles de m3]
Marzo '21...........Gas 3.841,369 [Miles de m3]
Abril '21...........Gas 4.159,609 [Miles de m3]
Mayo '21............Gas 6.106,850 [Miles de m3]
Junio '21...........Gas 5.972.658 [Miles de m3]
Julio '21...........Gas 5.286,880 [Miles de m3]
Agosto '21..........Gas 4.871,660 [Miles de m3]
Septiembre '21......Gas 4.494,636 [Miles de m3]
Octubre '21.........Gas 4.601,645 [Miles de m3]
Noviembre '21.......Gas 4.255,044 [Miles de m3]
Diciembre '21.......Gas 4.800,315 [Miles de m3]

Why do you expect to see some positive production news? I expect December production was the worst month of 2021.

Breaking out of the falling wedge. 2.8p - 3p on the cards before the 30th Dec.

The change in PPCs share price will be interesting from the 29th to the 30th. It should drop about 0.5p to account for the reduced holding in ATOM from 85% to 28%. The drop could be short lived if the ATOM share price has a strong open.

The share price has risen from 1.7p to 2.3p recently so is that ATOM factored in?

I think the delays in Argentina (Puesto Guardian) and USA (ELV) have done the damage here. We should have been exiting 2021 with our oil/ gas production on the rise but instead we will finish close to yearly lows in production. The way Paraguay was handled with lots of secrecy meant that the impact of that JV never really gave the share price a boost. 2021 looks like another year to forget as a PPC share holder.

Steve

As the PB has been extended clearly not a very fast take up of ATOM shares. I am sure they will get the 9m GBP from somewhere but the lack of volume at PPC also suggests not much interest in ATOM.

With PPC retaining a 23% - 25% interest in ATOM any strong moves in the ATOM share price will feed through to PPCs share price.