Member Info for Brasso3

169 share in PPC at 2.2p = £3.718
1 share in ATOM at 80p = £0.80

£0.80 / £3.718 = 21.5% divi

If it opens at 2.2p fill your boots!

So the calculations here were a bit off on market cap. Nevertheless this is still a massive dividend with PPC at 2.2p

It looks like the IPO is delayed as I suspected. Having the record date 19 days away will be a big benefit as you would have to be insane now to sell PPC below 3p. Should see PPC move upwards over the next 2 weeks and allow time for some ATOM publicity building up to the IPO. I think it will be a strong IPO so the divi will end up being more valuable than it is currently detailed on paper.

NM

Whilst the news on PG wells is progress and being able to sell oil outside Argentina is a positive you can never dismiss the information that they do not provide (eg. current production). We have not idea what current production levels are but as they do not get mentioned you can be certain that at best they will be average.

I had hoped for some end of year headlines on production with 1 or 2 PG wells online and the US wells back pumping away. I would be surprised of the total exit rate is above 2500 BOEPD now. Do I need to remind everyone that PPC was targeting 3600 - 4000 BOEPD average for 2021.

I dread to think where the share price would be without the ATOM IPO.

I suspect we have around 5 -7 trading days left before the record date if this IPO is going ahead this month. Should see an increase in volume now IMO.

Urraca

During my 13 year love affair with MRP/ PPC I cannot recall them meeting any deadlines so do not hold your breath on 'mid December'. I am guessing this is going to slip to January as it would be stupid to do an IPO 23rd Dec - 31st Dec IMO.

NM

If I am looking to explain the large drop today I have to attribute several factors:-
- PG not in production until Jan and the market was incorrectly expecting flow rates.
- Triche well appears to be delayed by a few weeks.
- Oil prices have had a bad week ($75 down to $69/ barrel).
- PPC was overbought on RSI (74 on the daily).
- Market misinterpreted the 1p options RNS as being something new.
- Still not details on ATOM IPO.

They are not free but at 1p they are a gift to employees who have failed to deliver in Argentina.

Not bad news but how has this drilling programme slipped by around 2/3 months. These 3 wells were all supposed to be online this year.

13th July

- At Puesto Guardian, Salta Province, Argentina, the first of the three new firm oil wells is currently expected to be spudded on time in the first half of October with the second and third wells to be drilled back to back through Q4 2021

4th Aug

- The first of the three new vertical oil wells to be drilled at the Dos Puntitas field, Puesto Guardian, Salta Province is on track to spud in the first two weeks of October, with wells two and three being drilled back to back thereafter in Q4 2021.

22nd Sep

- Site clearance for the first well has begun with the rig due to be mobilised during the first days of October. Drilling of the first well is now expected to commence by the end of the third week in October with drilling of all three wells expected to be completed by the end of the year with the final well in that sequence expected to be on stream in the first part of January 2022.

Disappointed not to get the operational updates by now.

5th Nov RNS

Louisiana workover of Triche well in progress

The long-awaited workover of the Triche well has commenced and is projected to continue for three weeks to plug back, perforate and produce from a higher section in the well.

In the event of success, it is projected that both the Triche and Simmons wells will be back on sustained production at or around the end of this month.

22nd Nov RNS

New oil well in Salta drilling ahead at 2,500 metres depth with target depth of 3,300 metres expected to be reached in next seven days

I will be very surprised if there is not an RNS tomorrow...

There is not much new information on PG. It peaked around 800 BOPD 5 years ago from memory and now now chugging along at sub 400 BOPD I think. There is a summary on the PPC website:-

https://www.presidentenergyplc.com/operations/argentina/puesto-guardian/

The old presentations have been removed from the PPC website but I still have pdf copies saved for reference.

I want the PG well to be successful just to get rid of any potential bad news that will impact the momentum the share price has picked up. PPC does not have a great operational record especially at Puesto Guardian so this will put a few minds at rest. The extra 250 BOPD predicted will be nice but its more about restoring some confidence and bringing PG back into view as its been the forgotten asset. We should not forget the the majority of PPCs P2 oil reserves are at PG despite Rio Negro have the larger slice of current production.

464,000 at 2.74p and 428,000 at 2.8p gone through on PLUS.

Bigger buyers moving in at higher levels.

AParky

I think the probability of the IPO details being released is now very high. They will need to give 2 weeks notice before the IPO date IMO. I cannot see a sell off until we go past the record date.

Conveniently hid that 15k GBP trade on the PLUS market. Naughty. :)

Also PPC receive $4m lump sum so they only pay around 10% of the first well.

I cannot see them spudding in March. I expect PPC will want the PG drilling campaign done first as they will want strong cashflow going into the Paraguay drilling. Also, 4 months is not much time when it comes to an exploration well in a remote area without infrastructure. I think May/ June is more realistic for Paraguay.

https://soundcloud.com/user-757245438/message-from-chairman-peter-levine-on-the-paraguay-farm-out-25-november-2021?si=98e0ded30840452ca1871f0596f74fd6

I wonder what share price PPC needs to rise to before the record date to properly factor in the Atome valuation. I think PPC is worth more than 2p without Atome but if we use 2p then at present Atome is only worth 0.5p or around £10m. There is clearly a big distortion here with the present market cap. I think PPC will have to rise to 3.5p - 4p (£70m - £80m) on the record date for any valuations to make sense. If it then splits 50:50 and PPC drops back to 2p and Atome lists at a market cap of ~£40m there will be few complaints. I think based on assets/ cashflow, PPC should have a larger weighting but there is a moderate amount of debt to factor in on the PPC half of the relationship.

Which ever way you dress this up there is around £70m - £80m on offer here for £53m at 2.6p.