Member Info for Brasso3

Followed by a 1m sell at 0.86p. :(

1,020,408 buy at 0.95p gone through. Volume creeping up nicely on the daily chart.

Just to remind you that $45 fixed pricing is actually $40 after the 12% government cut. Effectively we are getting the Brent oil price of today.

Inorganic growth rough debt and dilution.
Organic growth through dreams and failed promises.

I did tell you all that Schroders were selling. It looks like it as at a slower rate than I thought though:-

Schroders holding:-
27/01/2020 - 202,131,301 shares
07/04/2020 - 200,108,500 shares
23/04/2020 - 184,213,941 shares
24/06/2020 - 179,709,652 shares

Most investors with >10% of the stock put a NED on the board. It is there right as per LSE rules.

SHARESMag
@SHARESmag
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A very good post from the dark side:-

Highly Geared23 Jun '20 - 21:22 - 2630 of 2631

Brasso/Excellence; if we take AAZ and HGM as factual bench marks of market ascribed PE ratios I’d suggest once “ proven” on production, Altyn should sit on a PE of 8 to reflect peer group, geographic location and political risk perception, with a little upward adjustment for its huge reserves.

Assuming grade sees improvement to net recovery of 2g/tonne next year and they get to nameplate capacity at 850k Tpa , then c. 50,000 oz looks feasible in 2021.

AISC will drop from current levels and with gold at $1760, I’m comfortable with $1000 gross profit per oz.

So , $50 million, deduct $10 million for G&A, ongoing Capex, finance costs.
$40 million net , PE of 8 = $320 million. £256 million. This is 10p/share.

This is why I won’t be considering selling until this is reached, as it’s a natural end point to the current plan within the capacity of the existing mining regime and mill.

The POG leverage factor is the “ kicker”. Using the above metrics but adjusting to $2250 average 2021 Spot price , the share price jumps to 16p. I think this could happen..

The 5.2m trade is around 0.25% of the shares in circulation so do not expect a TR1 declaration anytime soon.

I cannot see anything stopping this from hitting 3p by next week.

Nice break out on the chart above 2p which is a new all time high.

I sent a query off also to the AGM:-

Dear Sir/ Madam

As a share holder in ARB I am very concerned with the lack of investment from the current Board of Directors in the companies shares. Since IPO the founding members (Mr Bixby/ Mr Edwards) have all sold out of their stock in the company and the new management team has not committed any funds into the company. I would be interested in buying more shares in ARB but are prevented from doing this as I do not see the current BoD interests as being aligned with private investors. I would be very interested in hearing the position on this from the BoD with respect to current/ future intentions to buy shares in ARB?

regards

Its a shame the AGM is not possible as I would have liked to ask the current BoD if they have any intention of buying shares. Its the main area of concern for me that they don't have any skin in the game.

I am trying to figure out how/ if the former BoD here hold there shares in ARB. In the IPO document they had the following amount of shares:-

Jonathan Bixby - 19,350,000 (6.59%)
Mike Edwards - 19,350,000 (6.59%)
Gil Penchina - 1,000,000 (0.34%)
Timothy Le Druillenec - 437,500 (0.15%)

I can only see Timothy Le Druillenec in the major share holders on the website with 437,000 shares. At IPO, Jonathon Bixby and Mike Edwards held there shares under Durban Holdings Ltd (38,900,000 shares). Are these shares now under First Investment Holdings Ltd which have 41,000,000 shares (13.99%)?

In the 2019 FY report Mike Edwards still had 21,600,000 shares but Jonathon Bixby had no declaration. However, Durban holdings were still holding 38,700,000 shares. On the 3rd February Durban Holding declared below the 3% threshold. Since then Eric Chang (1219626 BC Ltd) has also sold out or to below 1.5%.

It looks like ARB have made some updates to their website:-

https://vimeo.com/426105791

But if Schroders are still selling then Trafigura would just be allowing them to exit at a higher price.

5Sights

In the past (2017 - 2018) this was a tactic PL used to increase the share price buy increasing his stake towards 30%. It is a desperate way to improve the share price when though. What happened to organic growth...

Looks like the 1.5m sell from yesterday has been cancelled.

I think his last paragraph is correct though as PIs who would have typically bought in the open market, used the primary bid so it has caused a short term imbalance between supply and demand. Some were posting on BBs at the excitement of taking part in the primary bid at 1.85p and that the price would not go below 2p etc.

I do not have much time for Malcy but I will post his update anyway:-

President Energy
President has announced drilling and workover plans for H2 2020 which includes 2 new wells in the next four months and has already been in discussions with service providers given the capacity availability in the region. The first well will be the Las Bases 1001 development well targeting proven un-produced attic gas with 6 Bcf of total recoverable reserves with a ‘high’ COS and at a cost of $1.9m completed.

The second well is the Estancia Vieja EVN-x1 exploration well targeting a new and so far un-drilled independent structure for both gas and oil to the north of the producing Estancia Vieja field with a P50 case of 252 bopd of oil and 350 boepd of gas. Chances of success here are ‘good’ and at a cost of $2.5m completed. Should this be successful it would open up the whole of the Estancia Vieja north structure with an estimated 14 Mmbbls of Oil in place and 26 Bcf of gas in place which will require another 6 wells.

In Paraguay the concession period extends to 1Q 2022 and with successful drilling would be extended to a production licence. President acknowledge that they have had ‘meaningful discussions’ with an NOC with regard to a farm-in which are on hold at present due to COVID-19 related issues.

Peter Levine, President Chairman commented ‘We believe now is the time to plan and invest for the future, particularly as we will have negligible third party debt at the half year end and are in a solid position. The fact that we will be able to bring successful wells into production in Rio Negro without any delay or excessive costs demonstrates the value of our conventional onshore wells in central locations with the benefit of owning and operating the regional pipelines and infrastructure. This enables us to transport produced oil and gas from the fields to the main national pipelines and on to our off-taker Trafigura, a strategically important major shareholder in President.’

President shares are slightly below the recent issue price and whilst that can to an extent be explained by the placings taking demand out of the market on a short-term basis, for the longer term the recent corporate activity and imminent drilling campaign makes the shares look incredibly attractive.

https://www.malcysblog.com/2020/06/oil-price-predator-president-empyrean/