Member Info for Bpx1

Guys,

A reliable indicator of pending recession is flashing red. I cant say which industry but 2 commodities and byproducts have just crashed 20% and 30% in 2 weeks. The industry in question knows from previous cycles these are leading indicators.

Ive been with you on this 4 year journey. And just got out. If your time horizon allows it, stay put. If not - consider your % liquidity position.

Nothing in this for me - just a warning to my fellow comrades and shipmates.

If it's right for you then well done.

Just penned my 'thank you' card to Tufan. I owe him a great deal.

...and yet Buffett is holding record levels of cash. Hmmm

That's me. Sold all my holdings. Objectives met. Tufan has changed my future. I can now retire - and will now live off interest on my portfolio.

If I waited until it went up another 9% to £12, while I am waiting multiple external factors could prove to be the trigger point for the long awaited market correction.

- AI bubble bursts when investors realise it is harder to monetise than expected.

- Reeves has to go to IMF when confidence drops out of UK government - with Associated contagion. In the 2008 crash, it was the banks who ran out of money. This time it will be on another scale when governments are bankrupt

- Putin tests Nato even further with Nato paralysed and not knowing how to respond

- unemployment and global economic realities

hit home

- widespread civil unrest due to migrant crisis

Even though RR will continue to be a stunning company - it will not be insulated from the 'pop' when it happens.

Personally - I don't need to take that risk any more. And when there is a correction (not if) - I will have the option to get back in with my 100% liquidity.

This suits my personal circumstances. Realise others will choose to remain invested for the ride. Tufan has now made it so that that no longer has to be the case for me.

Enjoy the ride. Good luck all. I'm off and out!

-

However, the proposal has created a potential dilemma for Ed Miliband, the Energy Secretary, as Wylfa is also being eyed as a potential testbed for the first mini nuclear reactors plants designed by Rolls-Royce, which are due to be built by the mid-2030s.

Gloves about to come off. Not about playing fair, but who you know. RR's perceived first mover advantage potentially about to be under undermined by transatlantic relations - which will not be reciprocated- meaning RR unlikely to be given any business in US.

Feel RR may have reached a zenith for now.

Is the cyclical aero industry starting to turn.

Winding in their winter capacity due to uncertain demand.

RR used to be the share leading the rising tide. I can't help but see it is now going in the opposite direction of the others that are rising.

Can't help but think what will happen when the UK and USA macro situation hits the headlines.

Considering my exit very soon. A few % drop every day and before we know it I'll have lost value that could have been placed elsewhere.

I agree with your points which are logical and well thought through. The most important view is that of the markets. What do they think. Sentiment is a massive factor.

Why do crashes / corrections happen if all businesses are valued logically and objectively? They happen because sentiment has taken them above true valuations.

It is then negative sentiment that causes an over reaction and a sell off that is contagious.

I agree with your points. Unfortunately you also need to factor in sentiment as being both an upward and downward lever. Where is that in your equation.

Years of investing has shown that patience and riding out these sentiment peaks and troughs is the wise longterm strategy.

Others may not have a 5 or 10 year horizon to work with. If you see a cliff edge approaching and 4% return over 2 years is enough, balanced against a perceived risk of a 20% drop then at this stage of my investing horizon, I know which one I am taking.

There are 3 levers pulling RR down.

1. The likelihood of peace talks being successful.

2. People just realising that 5% of investors in AI and its infrastructure will get a return (who on here has ever paid for AI?). This will hit SMR investment.

3. Market sentiment. The belief that RR (and the market's bull run when looking at latest US data) has run out of steam.

With interest rates holding im looking at moving everything into overnight money markets rather than ride this one out. Low cost, 4% return while the market loses 20+%. I dont lose 20% abd gain 20% on the return. So near enough a 50% return.

For those who have not seen it, this gives an excellent insight into the man behind the recovery.

My take home: invest in the man with the plan that is so well thought through from concept to execution.

He strikes me as the kind of thinker who would rather report conservative figures and just get on with doing the job.

For now - I'm still a hold.

(Great interviewer. Not overawed - as though Turbo is applying for a job!)

https://youtu.be/w7U_txgsTHs?si=OdoGRHd8mSFN4jk2

Good news in aero is contagious

Boom. Through a psychological barrier as well. Clear of £10.00

Hope market doesn't focus on slightly disappointing defence numbers. There's value built in based on good defence dividend. Let's see at 8

Https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/07/30/nuclear-power-start-up-pulls-out-uk-miliband-drags-feet/

It will be interesting to see how this affects travel stocks today.

US indices down. Rycey well up.

Looks like the longer than usual tree shake is over...

Oh. Is the tree shake happening that was forecast a few days ago. Funny that.

Just getting ready for the usual pre-reporting treeshake. Keep a tight hold of those shares. Others want them.

Hi - is anyone else who has an ii account showing an unexplained significant drop compared to Friday?