Member Info for boselecta

Good call.

The cumulative shorts position (above 0.5%) have been about the same for the past 3 weeks this before the latest trading statement and after.

All the knowns are known now except the unknowns hence the shorts position. It is all about positive/negative news now on the pandemic and the pace of recovery which will determine the share price direction.

All gone quiet at IAG.

Could be five weeks without a peep. Last official statement 2nd April. Next scheduled statement 7th May (Q1R, current, forward and outlook). Not banging on the government door every other day pleading poverty and upsetting Sunak. Keeping your head down. See how Virgin gets on with the begging bowl. Learn from Easyjet'scurrent position and shananigans. Attend funeral of Norwegian.

Professional.

Well at least a lot is now out in the open now after todays trading update. More clarity now and less speculation on the numbers.

Therefore, you are now speculating on the unknowns, when will the pandemic ease, when will flying resume and how quickly will confidence return? Guarantee a lot more people will be getting on planes than the commentators on here think. Until then the shorters will be in charge of the share price and further still until we have trading updates from IAG & Ryanair.

Stelios might be right or wrong on the Airbus order but Easyjet can't get out of its contract if you read the statement. But normally in this situation both companies would agree a termination fee so either this has been discussed and rejected or the Easyjet board is fairly confident of the future.

The airlines, airports, travel companies and agents, marketeers, tourist dependent nations and governments will go on a major charm offensive to bring back customers to the airports at the end of this.

Just like the current security restrictions introduced after 9/11 not only was it about making sure terrorists did not get on the plane loaded but it was to give a sense security to the passenger. The same thought process will apply after Covid and it is probably already being worked on.

EZJ is an interesting play. I took an financial interest recently. I am not concerned whether people will return to flying - they will.

Amongst other things, it has a great franchise, dominates its chosen sector with Ryanair and IAG and has survived a number of shocks over the last twenty five years. Knowing if this pandemic is short term or longer is the key here to making any money out of EZJ. If only we knew! So anyone buying now, like me, is essentially saying this is short term and the longer term will be quite profitable.

The shorts are still in and building and have about 11% (est - including those below 0.5%) so any positive news sends the share price significantly higher. The shorts call clearly has not helped the share price but their bet is quite clear in that positive news will not be forthcoming anytime soon.

I think the PRA will recommend something but it will be up to the banks. More importantly the banks themselves and the big institutional investors should decide this.

The PRA now look reactive after CEB got in first and Barclays being only 3 days away from payment! Would be a very poor show.

I would be against this, of course, as the dividend payment is just what retail investors need at the moment.

As mentioned, the UK banks have plenty of capital. The european banks have much less so and the CEB using a wide brush has infected the UK PRA with their virus should they make the same call.

Even though it came from the informed FT and it is getting posted everywhere it is not guaranteed to happen.

Taking equity stakes as a means of rescue has been a financial disaster for the British taxpayer and investors. Shall we do it again? Commercial loans, with strings natrually, are the only way forward.

No other airline in the world regarding the virus, as of yet, has been has been offered an equity stake by their government. Poisonous.

Seen this about £1.30 during the financial crisis. Hard to recall their cash pile, if any, then but probably was nowhere near their pile today. People still travelled - if they wished to. Smaller fleet fewer subsidiaries. Survived.

Now at £1.93. Significant cash pile but no-one is travelling or being allowed to. Bigger fleet more subsidiaries. Unless you are truly on the inside and know the cash burn - difficult to call.

News from UK government on support, Friday or over the week-end, possibly a key moment.

Not one to usually comment on others comments but do we really need this crap?

Painful. Been through all the ups and downs of this company past 20 years.
Foggy. Hard to see through it.
Worst Fear. Realised, grounding of nearly all of their planes.
Optimism. Cash preservation, increasing cargo operations coming to the forefront for time being. The planes can be converted at the tug of a parachute.

Government Help. Not sure. Keeps all the weak airlines flying while the prudent go essentially unrewarded but is likely to give rise to a dominant position on the other side of this if others are liquidated.
Dividends. Bang goes the final I am sure. Unfortunately, makes sense.
Best Case: Outstanding opportunity for investors with nerve and sense of what is going on.

Final dividend up 3%. FY results out tomorrow.

The longer the virus disrupts the aviation industry the more likey it is Norwegian and Flybe will disappear. I think todays major declines are a fear that airlines might be grounded by governments to try and contain the spread of the virus. It has not happened previously but remains a possibility.

Goe's against the grain but buying small in to the weekend might be an option, not just on IAG either. How much fear is left before fear fatigue sets in?

Heathrow 3 is 10 years away!

Having been in airlines for many a year, and seeing off many a financial threat, another golden opportunity will present its self soon. Sit tight and have plenty of cash on the side. Timing, of course, is the key.

Anybody any thoughts why both are scheduled to report their Q3 results on the same day (30th January 2020, according to both websites)? Never occurred before. Interesting though.

Anybody any thoughts why both are scheduled to report their Q3 results on the same day (30th January 2020, according to both websites)? Never occurred before. Interesting though.

When you are PE and you own fifty per cent of one of your biggest investments (Action) which makes up thirty six percent of your entire portfolio then investors may think twice. But they shouldn't.

It's not surprising 3i stayed in and increased there investment in Action. It would have been relatively flagged up their intention to do so prior to the announcement and a four per cent share price drop that day means nothing in context. Another PE house taking a $1 billion stake supports the increased investment and raises awareness.

In the US two similar businesses compete in a similar space (lower end value propositions) and between them, Dollar Tree (under pressure today) and Dollar General with a combined value of $62 billion. They have 30,000 stores between them serving 325 million people.

Action has c.1,500 stores in a small number of targeted European countries. The entire population of Europe comes in at around 750 million. Is there room for further growth? Is a $11 billion valuation on the conservative side? Can they expand in to other areas of business in due course? You decide.

The share price nudging towards £10 presented an opportunity given the premium had dropped to fourteen percent but it has taken off again. Clearly, unexpected events come in to play and companies with a high valuation (is it high?) don't half hit the fan when it all turns.

Its difficult to accept comments from contributors who don't or won't hold IAG stock. Their decision not to is based on 'customer service issues'.

The holders of Ryanair stock have made substantial returns based on profits and growth. Yet were/are they not the 'scum of skies'? IAG's growth and profits have soared eight fold to £3.5b . Not to mention Easyjet/Wizzair...

As always, theres only one thing that fundamentally takes the share price higher, increasing profit.

Theres been no buying opportunity since the decline started. Other significant events, mostly outside of airlines control, have now conspired to keep the share price trending lower. It is an unwanted perfect storm for airlines. The whole market may take it higher but stand alone highers are just a little hard to find.

A p/e of 3.8 and a yield of 6.7% are the lowest I've seen for many a year and are very attractive numbers. Just need to see the fundamentals and sentiment in particular improve before accumulating further.

Not worried about strikes, fines etc. Those costs can all be passed on to the customer as normal.