Member Info for BoracicLint

MHL2020, I think you still hold the same number of shares if it is taken private. However, 2 things will probably happen:

1. A lot of PIs will probably bail out and possibly some IIs depending on their remit; this may cause the SP to decline quite a bit prior to privatisation.

2. Once privatised, of course the shares will no longer be quoted on a full exchange. An alternative platform will be offered but this may be highly illiquid, the costs are unknown and the SP itself may not be transparent until you are at the point of selling.

(This happened to me with Fusionex which became a nightmare, ending only with the private shareholders being compulsorily bought out at a considerable loss.)

For these reasons, if there is any inkling of being taken private, I will be voting against even if that means leaving the current BOD in place, albeit with their appallingly bad communications.

The divi has arrived in my IG account.

Now only down by about 40%!

Yep, I may be being a bit gloomy; it's a fair cop! And yes, I agree I was far too trusting of the BBC pre-Covid. I am now highly sceptical of numerous articles it publishes. Having said that RSA does have very serious problems.

I think there is great potential here - let's hope the management team can execute a successful development of this new asset for the company. Creasy, plus the LEXers with RSA experience have excellent credentials. Time will tell and I accept this will be medium to long-term investment. At the current SP, can you believe I am actually in profit for the first time since 2009.

The deal looks good on paper, with a massive increase in potential reserves - but these are not 'official' JORC; I wonder when/if this will happen.

My worries about working in RSA continue though. Have a look at this article from the Beeb https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-65671718

It's a country rich in resources yet extensive power cuts now seem to be becoming the norm. This is basic infrastructure provision and things have got so bad that "Turkish company, Karpowership, has signed deals for its ship-mounted power plants to supply electricity to several West African countries, and last week South Africa. These are moored off the coast and directly plugged into the national grid, supply between 30 MW and 470 MW per vessel." This is another quote from the Beeb.

I am staying with Lex as it looks as if it could be a multi-bagger over a period of years but RSA will be a very difficult place to do business.

An interesting article on the Beeb here https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-65671718 mainly about the internal problems in RSA. I know we export most of our coal but it made me realise the kind of environment TGA has to do business in. Having the new resource in Oz may be good news in the medium term but RSA looks like a country falling apart. Admittedly, I shouldn't judge on the basis of one article but it seems very serious.

I agree. The foundations seem solid and being internet only, they avoid a lot of other costs and managing what they have should be easier, especially now they've moved on to the cloud.

Today's drop did seem an over-reaction so I have bought back in at just under 105p, hoping that H2 will be as good as they expect.

Great to see the SP continuing upwards and this makes sense considering the potential increase in reserves.

However, I do have quite a few initial concerns...

Oh no, it's in Africa again - I remember all the troubles in Tanzania. I can't see RSA being much better. I have shares in Thungela and even for lowly valued coal in comparison with gold, they have infrastructure and crime problems aplenty.

The reserves are only independently verified, not JORC.

How aligned are the goals of WRE and BBBEE - is this likely to be the cause of future friction?

Looks as if no open-pit mining, so extraction costs will be higher.

Issuance of additional 110m shares, conditional admittedly, will dilute us nearly 40% - we need a high confidence level the reserves are as stated.

Do we really want to get into possibly mining?

WRE was in business rescue - why was this and why isn't the wealthy Creasy able to bail it out himself?

On the plus side, BoD members have experience in RSA and the tenements do seem rich.

There are 2 'unknown' trades totalling about £30k according to the trades page so if they are actually buys then that might explain the big shift. It is odd for such a big move on no news, even for LEX. I will be a happy boy if this really is the beginning of a change in fortunes as I've been here since 2009 and my patience is wearing a bit thin.

After very deep thought, I have decided to take up my full allocation of the offer, costing a princely £22. It was either that, or buy a few lottery tickets; KMK came out marginally on top!

Today's RNS is bad news but not unexpected. I think the BOD have been pretty straightforward for months about the options. I knew this was a gamble to get back in and I foolishly bought at the recent peak. I've sold now as I don't think trading will be practical for PIs once re-dom has happened and although this is a solid business, it's been shafted by the geo-political situation (as have EVR and POG) and that doesn't look to be changing soon.

My loss has eaten into all profits here apart from 20 quid, so I may celebrate with a Nando's.

For those remaining, I wish you all the best but for me the horizon here just looks bleak.

Good and positive half-year results, plus a broker buy rating last month, but oddly no price movement today. Hope to see some movement beyond 700p very soon.

Or Joules - Tom Joules, major shareholder remains involved in the company while retail shareholders are all wiped out. Shameful

I suppose the gold price holding up at about $2000 must be giving us a tailwind. This is nosebleed territory for LEX, surely?

Or is it a PI waiting for suspension to be lifted?

A positive set of results and RNS, considering the economic backdrop. Also, a proposed final divi of 4.5p shows they are continuing the progressive divi policy.

I've been in this share since 2017 and it hasn't got above about 170p. I'm out with a tiny loss after divis, as I doubt a better offer will emerge. Good luck if you're holding on.

Not invested here yet but keeping an eye on it. Jefferies has downgraded to underperform - presumably causing the drop in SP today - and quotes concern about debt and financing of the Arqiva acquisition. Total debt is now 519m or 55% of NAV, quite a bit more than the 40%ish current NAV discount. I wonder if future dividends are secure?

Just woken up to this, was feeling ill, now worse. So glad I sold out for "only" a 75% loss a couple of weeks ago. I am genuinely sorry for other LTHs who stuck it out till today.

BoDs handling of this has been awful - I still haven't really heard a decent argument why they needed the full £45m now. They have been supine as far as I can see.

It does seem this industry is now in terminal decline when you consider that AMGO had just reached the point of becoming the cleanest player in the market and yet has been unable to secure what is really quite small funding. A combination of the funding issue and withdrawal of the guarantor product, plus difficulty in getting enough new business with the stringent new rules, along with lower interest rates in Reward Rate made me think the writing was probably on the wall.

The FCA has also played another blinder by constantly dragging its heels and the late intervention in SOA1. Waiving the absurd £79m fine has perversely made wind-down an easier option.

The irony of the situation is that we need this type of lender more than ever since the pandemic. I suspect a lot of claimants have just chanced their arm with the lure of free cash and egged on by the likes of debt dromedary. Now what will they do when they need their next loan and the only lenders are pawn brokers and loan sharks - good luck with that!

At the same time I have to take responsibility as an investor. I knew this was very risky and was expecting a big reward when this came good. It was about understanding the risk and not allocating too much into one share/ industry. Everybody has lost out here - I hope the BoD is barred from running another company.

I've no idea how much longer trading will continue but I won't be touching this with a bargepole.

I've been thinking following the meeting. I am heavily overweight in this share already (my own fault). While there might be a big buyer in the background this is all speculation. The fact they haven't raised a penny more since 23/02 is concerning. The RI will force me to add more money into this share (I am not sure there will be enough demand to allow tail-swallowing).
Yes, the BOD does keep banging on about wind-down and I feel this is becoming a more likely outcome by the day.
So, I decided to sell my whole holding. It's a massive 75% loss and my second biggest ever share loss in money terms - it bloody hurts.
Sod's law says an RNS tomorrow with more than full funding and a teensy RI!!
Anyway, for everyone else still in, wish you all the best. If things turn out well and Amigo 2 becomes a profitable prospect, I would look to re-invest, though you will all be rich and catching a few rays somewhere exclusive ;)

Now, where's that red wine?

I only managed to attend the final 10 minutes, so thanks to Novice for the updates. Is it fair to say the current situation is:
1) SOA can only be changed by the court. There is no time for this and why would the judge agree to changing the terms to anything less than the current scheme.

2) Out of the 45m needed, they have, quote "non-binding, indicative interest for between £10m to £15m of equity and £10m of exchangeable notes" . This hasn't changed since 23rd Feb. If all of that became firm agreements, we would have a max of £25m, leaving a further £20m to raise.
During the meeting was the issue raised that if they can't raise £45m this way, could the balance attempt to be raised through the RI? Or, did they suggest that without the £45m in advance, it will go straight to wind-down?

3) There still has to be a RI with a dilution of 19:1 and there are currently about 475m shares. Usually, RI are issued at a discount to the current SP of roughly 2.4p. If they offered it at 2p, then 475m x 19 x 2p would raise £1.8m (please check this for schoolboy errors), which is very little towards the total. If the RI was offered at a premium, how much take-up would there be for such a risky business.

4) The FCA Consumer Duty legislation is new to me but if this is going to restrict AMGO in any way, it doesn't look good on top our existing problems.

5) It seems we are relying on a white knight to ride in and save our capital position. Without that, I suspect the other IIs won't make binding agreements.

Bearing all this in mind, I feel really pessimistic about the future and can't help but think we will go into wind-down and we will all be wiped out. Sorry to be down but...