RE: When GDP goes up through Government spending27 Jul 2023 21:15
The US is running a Budget Deficit of 8%> to GDP (this US fiscal year I think it could be 10%> as tax receipts are collapsing), that is in order to get a GDP growth of 2% or so. The fact that markets are taking that as bullish and, in their stride, tells you something is desperately wrong.
No, there is no recession in theory, they have a nominal 2% growth rate, but that is at a real loss when you have a 4.7% core inflation rate (3%> headline), and the government is spending cash like a drug addict who just found a wallet on the pavement.
It’s a complete Ponzi Scheme at this point, they are funnelling huge amount of cash in at the bottom of the pyramid to keep the system afloat.
You may be able to pretend you’re in growth, but your tax receipts down 10%> year on year say otherwise.
Of course, it’s fine…right up until the point when it’s not.