Zumore
I suspect they started the GPR work in September and as we witnessed last time RGM did exploration work there 7 years ago the weather beat them from fully completing the whole area but have managed to complete a significant part of the work and will be returning for a few weeks after the rainy season to finish.
I would be very surprised if I am wrong about that.
As a private bet as much money as you like Stephen we both know RGM have had very serious money issues over the last 12 months and that work has progressed at Mambare in that time which indeed costs money .If one party doesn't pay its way than they get diluted 2-1 .
I think the only bit we don't agree on if I have got this right is the 2-1 dilution .
How do I know the JV contract is dilutive 2-1 cos Bell told me face to face years ago when the tables were turned and it was DNi who wasn't able to contribute fully to licence renewal costs etc.Russell Debney also confirmed this to me .
Of course the new JV partners might not be continuing with the same DNi 2-1 contract but this to me is highly unlikely cos as you know the 2-1 part is there for a very good reason .
In exactly the same way I was right about it not being possible to use the DNi process in PNG for carcinogenic shipping reasons which is the real reason why DSO is being explored but has never been admitted. And I was also right about DNi no longer being our JV partner (RGM kept quite about that one for 2 years) I am right this time too.
As we live and breath RGM is presently a minority shareholder in Mambare and almost certainly would have been served notice to this effect,think about it why would the JV partners want to pay RGM share of the costs for a whole 12 months and beyond when they can simply dilute them out of the picture altogether ,particularly when you consider RGM have been messing them around for the last 2 years resulting in them very nearly losing the licence altogether ,which is another thing I was also right about.
Business is business ,the contract is the contract and the covenant is the covenant .
It is entire possible this is indeed the plan, don't pay anything together to costs ,get diluted , the JV list Battery Metals on the ASX ,RGM sell whats left of their stake and focus on energy storage instead.
My point is very simple ,there nothing wrong with that so long as shareholder are aware.
Thank you , as the final results confirm RGM haven't spent not a single pound on Mambare in calendar 2019,surely we can all agree on that and that we can all also already that a lot of work has taken place there .
When one party fails to contribute to a works budget they signed the other party serves notice after 3 to 6 months period , at that stage the other party has time to respond if they don't dilution at 2 -1 takes place .
I am happy to except theres a very slim possibility the JV have exercised leniency but I suspect its a simple technically issue . Stephen to clear this all up as its getting a bit boring , I suggest I stop going on about it and when the next Mambare RNS is announced if it shows 50% I will owe you personally £150 and if its less then 50% you'll owe me £150.
Do you want to shake hands on that and we will leave it there.
Taken from todays finals RNS,notice the absence of " 50% " which has been included in all cases since the JV was created back in 2010.They can't be honest and state the present % holding because they just can't and because they obviously feel the news of their holding dropping by 25% -35% would have a detrimental effect on the SP when they need to try and get it up before the next even bigger fund raising .Its starting to look like the companies entire focus is going to be on battery energy storage which is fine and I hope it works for them .My point is they need to inform shareholders when major changes like this happen ,absence of information is intentionally mislead investors into potentially making investments they otherwise wouldn't have made.
Mambare Nickel-Cobalt Project " ............." - the Company's nickel-cobalt project at Mambare in Papua New Guinea (PNG), continued to make progress despite the lack of capital available to facilitate operations with the Company's joint venture partners during the period. Application for the renewal of the EL1390 exploration licences, encompassing the project were submitted to the PNG authorities in early March 2019, and the accompanying Warden's Hearing took place in April 2019. A successful renewal of these licences is pending and will cover the period June 2019 to June 2021. Also, during the year, the existing resource was updated to the current JORC 2012 code. The joint venture partners have proposed a work plan to focus on ground penetrating radar activities and studying opportunities to progress a direct shipping ore operation at the project.
Beautifully articulated ,
bless you thanks
Of course Helpful and Stephen have to say that cos there are up to their necks in this.
SL and SP have either of you asked Scott about this 2-1 Mambare dilution arrangement yet?
Just give him a ring?
Scott doesn't know anything about exploration in Mambare and look what happened there absolutely nothing resulting in them very nealyr losing the asset altogether and finished with the JVP taking full control diluting RGM down to single digits.
Scott didn't know anything about the hirer car business and look what happened there ,he lost the entire investment within 6 months.
Scott didn't know anything about coal either but that didn't stop him from successfully investing £2M twice and he lost the lot on both occasions almost instantly .
Scott didn't know anything about oil and gas but didn't stop him from investing in CZN losing 92% and is by far the best investment he's ever made .
Needless to say Scott doesn't know anything about gas power stations either so its obvious where this is going .
Todays RNS endorses my belief Scott has a no commitment policy towards Mambare and is allowing RGM holding to be diluted down to single figures % .
James Parson can't change 2 -1 dilution in exactly the same way Stephen Lundy can't .
We are now at a 52 week low and the fall will almost certainly continue.Those who bought in on the.0004p ramp will within 12 months know how it feels to be a member of the 99.7% RGM losers club.
Can someone remind me how many days we have until the loan deadline?
thanks
Good morning Zumore,
Valuations post consolidation based on RGM contribution remaining at zero and the Mambare work program continuing to DFS fully funded by JVP.
We could debate this for a long time but for me if we were to imagine Mambare listed on the ASX in £ signs I would give it a valuation should it reach the DFS stage of between £3 - £5M in this market.
RGM minority holding will be at the most 15% equating to £450k - £750k plus £800k cash raised totalling.
Ttotal £1,250,000 - £1,550,000 (870,000 new consolidated shares in circulation) = 1.4p - 1.7p
But I think we need to take the remain £760k of debt into account and if you do that and assuming £100k pa average director salaries and we are looking at a more realistic value of 0.5p .
Its already starting to look like 2020 is going to be another 90% down for RGM shareholders ,lets just hope SP ,Luke and SL haven't both thrown good money after bad or they'll find themselves at the end of 2020 fighting over the" RGM biggest ever dunce in history hat".
Zumore , thanks for that
https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/regency-mines-RGM/share-news/Update-on-Mambare-and-Direct-Nickel/45437866
"Regency and DNi have agreed that they will each contribute up to GBP1 000,000 to the next phases of exploration at Mambare which is planned to commence in January 2011 with the twin objectives of drilling out a resource and testing further areas of mineralisation."
Obviously this is Bell BS at the time, so basically its March , this means the road ( assuming the 24th July RNS is correct) to the top of Mambare inc. costs associated started March 2019 . Add 3 months which is a reasonable period of time before serving notice to an non contributing partner and its starting to look like June was when we ( I am speculating but its high probable ) became a minority partner .
We have been working on the assumption the 24th July Mambare RNS was yet another pack of lies but imagining they were telling the true on that occasion then all the above is almost certainly correct.
Stephen Pearce it might be worth noting Scott was holding the reins for that period.
Zumore I am very busy ATM your 25 posts a month ration was a great idea ATT cos nothing was happening then,now its a different story today so you should IMO resume more regular posting .
As Lundy posted the AR will confirm who's right or wrong.
Lundy Unhelpful "I expect there will be an AGM update but in any case the AR should be out soon. Why bother with all the assumptions and hysteria when you should have some facts pretty shortly?"
I dont suppose we will be hearing from him for a while.
Zumore can you remind me when the rainy season ends in PNG,in 2011 exploration work started end of Jan from memory.
Thanks
To put it another way its either,
A) the 24th July RNS relating to Mambare was totally false and the true really is nothing has been happening there.
B) The 24th July RNS is factually correct and we plan to pay for it using the £800k raised on the 23rd Dec plus an additional placing in the NY post consolidation .
C) The 24th July RNS is factually correct and we are going to pay something towards it to reduce the level of dilution .
D) The 24th July RNS is factually correct and we don't pay anything towards to costs resulting in us being heavily diluted to single digits.
Which one is it A,B,C, or D?
I don't think anyone of sane mind is going to dispute if the work has been carried out at this stage RGM hasn't paid a single penny towards the it as RGM full year report due in a few days time will confirm .
Given that this work and the cost associated started 12 months ago(basically this is old news but new news too cos RGM have chosen to withhold and hide this information from its shareholders ), its logical and reasonable to believe Mambare dilution notice has already been served i.e. we already are a Mambare minority shareholder.
Were any of the 7 billion new shares participants made aware of this critical investment fact?
Zumore sorry I can't remember who is who , isn't Helpful Lundy in real life and didn't SP post his involvement in the placing ?
Common sense assumption :The only assumption in that post is it only costs £2m to build a road to the top ,GPR and mining licence application etc. and RGM can't afford to contribute towards any of the costs everything else is fact .
Fact: This is what Andrew Bell said to me once in 2011,"at 2 - 1 you would have to be a fool to not match your JVP pound for pound because at that level (2 -1) one partner can dilute heavily the other partner very quickly ,before you know it your holding is at single digit %"
Fact :Scott would of course have signed a budget agreement with PNG authorities so is fully aware what the final dilutionary amount is should he fail to contribute .
You can put lipstick on a porkie pies ,but its still an pork pie underneath , with an usual tasting ketchup .
I know you know DNi only JV-ed with RGM because Mambare is a "Monster" ,but has always considered the management to be total buffoons Even with various DNi management changes over the years that opinion has never waived.
You have got to see this from a serious JVP perspective who don't come from a AIM list Management Mickey Mouse background .The JV understand they have signed and agreed to an exploration/works programme budget for the next 2 years and because they want to give the project the best chance of production in this next cycle .
1) New Road to the top of the plateau , (there wasn't even a road to the bottom the last time exploration took place , Zumore and I can remember photos of an investor field trip to PNG 9 years ago showing the investor/adventurer being whinged over the Mambare River by temporary metal cables.
Clearly things have moved on.
2) Ground Penetrating Radar over the plateau.
3) Interpretation of GPR
4) Mining Licence Application
5) Environmental Study
6) DFS
ETC
Thats all happened or is going to be completed in 2020, as is contractually bound.
The point you are missing is all of the above doesnt come cheap and the question is how much if any is RGM going to contribute to ?
Are we going to see another even larger placing immediately after consolidation to pay for all this ?
The JV contract when originally drawn out between DNi and RGM 30 Nov 2010 had a a 2 to 1 dilution mechanism .
Put simply DNI and RGM both put in £1M each at the start of the JV in 2010 equaling to 1 units per £1M to each party .
Imagine if the road to the top,GPR and DFS etc costed as little as £2M and RGM because they have completely lost everything on a coal gamble a year before couldn't afford to pay for their contactual obligations on Mambare?
No problem the work still goes ahead.
JV spend the whole £2M and so (2-1) gains 4 units plus their original 1 unit totalling 5 units . RGM spends nothing and maintains their original 1 units
Ttotal JV partners 5 units ( 83.33%) Dummy RGM 1 unit (16.6%)
Do these calc again using £3M or £4M which may or not be more realist and RGM share of the Mambare drops to single digits.
Are we witnessing another hat-trick of RGM own goals all over again ?
As always you just can't make this company up!
TD2
Agreed,
24TH July RNS
This DSO operation would consist of a relatively simply flow sheet with no processing plant, pipeline or tailings. As a result, this plan would be both environmentally friendly and uncontroversial in comparison with similar efforts in the region. A definitive feasibility study is planned covering this DSO operation following the conclusion of this year's work programme.
Partridge ,
" GPR walking is now, subject to JV funding". No funding, no work."
You are getting the JVP financial position confused with RGM financial position ,although technically RGM position will change slightly post 23rd Dec .
I can not stress enough this work programme absolutely has to be done and on time or they lose everything.
The JV can't not afford for their obligated 2019-2020 work programme to not be completed this time around ,they are already on their 2nd chance so unless they want to have the whole asset taken away from them they needed to do the GPR in September in order to remain on schedule the DFS in 2020 as they are also legally obligated to do.
As previously posted the JVP are not fools and fully understand the situation and what their contractual legal obligations are .
Zumore
"Bell says taking the next step at Mambare, moving towards feasibility, could cost between US$12 and US$20 million – or maybe less, depending on the route taken.
Bell says “Either way, we wouldn’t get much credit for doing that now, in this market."
You are exactly right ,Bell did say that ,but that was before the DSO proposal making what AB said then irrelavant i.e. the goal posts have most considerably since 2012.
"Booboo, I sense excitement from you regarding Mambare but I see RGM not dedicated to it"
Right again , they do seem very uncommitted towards Mambare , but again lets not get RGM lack of commitment confused to the JVP commitment , the JVP is no fool.
This work almost certainly would have taken place and completed before the rainy season so why haven't they announced the results ?
24th July 2019
"A work programme was put forward for the 2019-20 programme to the Mineral Resources Authority ("MRA") in Papua New Guinea. "
By the time this RNS Mambare update was released we were already well into this 2 year works programme consisting of 3 main objectives.
A) Road access to the top of the plateau. 2019
"To date, track and road clearing to support this effort has been largely completed with some bank cutting remaining. Spot gravelling and stump removal is scheduled for later this summer utilising heavier earth moving and bulldozer equipment."
B) GPR Ground penetrating Radar Sept 2019
"GPR walking is now, subject to JV funding, scheduled to start by September, with proposals from Canadian service providers under consideration. The current plans sent to the MRA include a revised ground penetrating radar ("GPR") work programme, estimated to complete in the second half of 2019."
C) DFS Definitive Feasibility Study 2020
" A definitive feasibility study is planned covering this DSO operation following the conclusion of this year's work programme. "
Unfortunately this exciting Mambare news got lost a little in bit at the time mainly because it was mixed inside the long awaited Strategic Review RNS ,but as Stephen has correctly pointed out many times , thats when he isn't counting up all of this weeks placing profits ,its all there in the announcements .
I think it would be fair to assume milestones A and B have been completed so presumably we now have a 3D interpretation map showing depth conductivity etc. of the plateau which will make exciting reading when it is announced .
With everything on course for C) a mining application and a successful DFS in 2020 everything appears to be nicely primed.
What is completely puzzling is as to why RGM have chosen to keep quiet about it when the best piece of news RGM have had in years is just sitting on their desks.
Well said Magic,yes all participates of the .0275p placing and Stephen is almost certainly one of them are netting themselves an easy 50% profit every time a mug punter buys in here @ .04p .
FACT.
RGM biggest asset is an electrical socket point somewhere in Liverpool which doesnt work cos someone has stolen the copper wire out of it.