RE: Floods28 May 2018 20:44
@ zan - Copy that and to underline my point about MOD's 7% SP drop today:
In the year since we created the MTR blog (BTW, thanks for the "Greece" hits this past week Tom) our main value point, apart from the huge exploration upside potential that we're about to see realised with any luck, was the arbitrage between the MTR cash+assets position (a million or two shy of �20m)+the MOD JV stake value vs the MTR mcap with hardly anything priced in re the JV stake or any possible JV stake<>MOD equity swap deal that could, overnight, book many millions onto the MTR balance sheet with the requisite market reaction (pricing it in) following immediately upon such a deal. Depending on the size/shape of such a deal, the SP here could open north of 3p and not trade below it again as it would reflect the new boosted balance sheet.
This week's MOD consolidation vote had already captured my (and others) attention with it being a possible opportunity to do a JV restructure with MTR and just days before that vote, we've seen monster volume on MOD that dropped off on Friday and substantial buying here at 2.25p on the MMs shake on the same day (+750k to the blue team here - again, tvm Tom).
That's then followed by a 7% drop on MOD from nowhere today on no volume plus a vacuous "article" - anonymous to boot I think; I didn't check that closely but anyone "writing" and not willing to put it above their own signature is clearly open to receiving a reverse-read from the more experienced PI.
So what?
Well, if there's a JV restructure deal attached to Wednesday's vote and the "market" recently got wind of it then the above MO is precisely what you may expect to see with loads of shares suddenly changing hands and the MOD SP being dropped to account for additional dilution of the share base around the time of the consolidation.
Add in the comedy (comedy being all about timing) hatchet job and, yes, I agree wholeheartedly.
The top-ups I've done recently were predicated on the risk reduction of the overall project via what looks to be a substantial resource upgrade in early/June following the very solid 60-hole assay results plus all of the incredibly exciting Seven Sisters domes drilling that's now underway but I may be about to switch my timing perspective here to the immediate term based on a read of these somewhat timely "signals".
It's a tough old game this which is why most people lose/never make any money of course - you've got wall-to-wall BSers all around you and you don't know who to listen to and if you're inexperienced you've got pretty much no chance. Who anyone listens to is entirely up to them and we all live and die by our own buying/selling decisions and rightly so.
I'll add this though - whether we're right or wrong here at low 2s remains to be seen but you'll never see 162 or I make anonymous shouts on shares - what we write will ALWAYS be above our signatures.
Sign In
Follow the stocks
