Member Info for bonker99

It's their exchange mate so they get to call the shots on pricing and news timing as per.

Dual-pricing because of the non-retail player(s) mate :).

I'm still wiping the coffee off my screen mate.

Sorry mate but I'm not just talking to you when I reply on here - I'm talking to everybody so some of the references will be foreign to the inexperienced ;)

Pump money = the ITK guys who already know why this can't break upper 2s and who may well already know where they're going to take it to the upside on imminent news.

The pump money.

Oh yes indeedy :)

They can't get in peeps ;)

*BUMP*

We don't need all of the Seven Sisters domes to come in with big grades or intercept widths for this to be massive :)

This is how it goes in broad numbers and here's some reference notes first:

The Expansion Case of the Feb PFS has been met, or very likely exceeded, with last week's 60mt resource upgrade.

That puts the NPV at a minimum $400m @ $3 Copper with a minimum IRR of 38% (already exceptional!) and max AISC of $1.5 with $200m capex required to get it going to ultimately produce $1.1b of EBITDA on $2.2b of revenue.

That entire operation - carving out the ore and processing it to concentrate runs at break even with Copper @ $1.8 (Julian Hanna presentation).

That's what we've got "in the bank" (NOT priced into the SP - yet) @ $3 Copper. Copper's on a wobble at the mo thanks to Trump's nonsense but imo the Copper price isn't relevant here until well into 2019 - post DFS in Q1.

If we stop there and just do some pretty simple math in terms of a reasonable expectation of a sale of that then we'd likely be looking at something like 30% of the NPV - that's $120m net to the JV partners - 30% of that nets to MTR for a cool $36m cash in the bank - that's £27m. Add that to the c£15m cash + assets in the recent MTR results as at end of 2017 and there's your MTR SP @ 4s at cash only with ZERO further upside priced in.

We can pee about around the margins on those numbers of course but in broad terms that's about the reality of it with the current T3 pit @ $3 Copper being worth something in the region of +3p on the MTR SP.

Why aren't we at 4s yet then? Well because we haven't dropped the official DFS yet but that'll come in 2019 Q1 and we've already moved halfway to it from 1.8p as the market times that reality going forward with 2s being proper whalloped these past two months because, on paper, it's a free bagger+ gift with no further upside priced in on *any* new discoveries between now and then.

So, each "T3" discovery is worth +3p on the MTR SP? More or less yes but bear in mind that we only need to build one plant and these seven underground domes in the wider T3 Dome Complex we're drilling the first three of right now (A1, A4 and A9) are all close enough to simultaneously feed that same plant so we only need one of those plants.

There will be additional costs to upgrade the (modular by design) plant over and above a processing rate of a single T3 feed but regardless, the economy of scale/synergy are virtually certain to send the existing PFS Expansion Case numbers streaking upwards in terms of profitability and reduced costs per pound of processed Copper.

So, let's say we bag another 3x T3 size deposits - that's +9p on top of the existing 4s target to get us to teens without taking into account any economy of scale increase *OR* Copper @ > $3 which will also balloon all the numbers upwards (DOUBLE all numbers at $4 Copper!)

No worries mate - I know how it is - you've just gotta be a bit more confident in your investment but that's difficult when you don't know what they know ;)

I've got em all filtered so I don't see the nonsense as you know but if you want my take on any negative points raised then go ahead and ask me - I won't rose tint it if I think there's any merit in the point but at least you'll get an honest and well intentioned answer from someone :)

Could be a few Xmases in here this year :)

Or maybe not :)

IWWB etc :)

:)

We'll get 2.7p with a bit of luck :)

Morning.

A pretty successful day then for the pros looking to muddy the waters again with (more) disinformation and to seed discord on the front page of this board :) They started this at 2p and now we're at 3p awaiting yet more great news - nuff said imo :)

Not that their MO will make a blind bit of difference to where this share is heading of course (it's just about dissuading others from buying/holding before the next move up) but you lot need to fight the disinformation with information, not just sling ad hominem mud cos then they win :)

*BUMP*

We don't need all of the Seven Sisters to come in with big grades or intercept widths for this to be massive :)

This is how it goes in broad numbers and here's some reference notes first:

The Expansion Case of the Feb PFS has been met, or very likely exceeded, with last week's 60mt resource upgrade.

That puts the NPV at a minimum $400m @ $3 Copper with a minimum IRR of 38% (already exceptional!) and max AISC of $1.5 with $200m capex required to get it going to ultimately produce $1.1b of EBITDA on $2.2b of revenue.

That entire operation - carving out the ore and processing it to concentrate runs at break even with Copper @ $1.8 (Julian Hanna presentation).

That's what we've got "in the bank" (NOT priced into the SP - yet) @ $3 Copper. Copper's on a wobble at the mo thanks to Trump's nonsense but imo the Copper price isn't relevant here until well into 2019 - post DFS in Q1.

If we stop there and just do some pretty simple math in terms of a reasonable expectation of a sale of that then we'd likely be looking at something like 30% of the NPV - that's $120m net to the JV partners - 30% of that nets to MTR for a cool $36m cash in the bank - that's £27m. Add that to the c£15m cash + assets in the recent MTR results as at end of 2017 and there's your MTR SP @ 4s at cash only with ZERO further upside priced in.

We can pee about around the margins on those numbers of course but in broad terms that's about the reality of it with the current T3 pit @ $3 Copper being worth something in the region of +3p on the MTR SP.

Why aren't we at 4s yet then? Well because we haven't dropped the official DFS yet but that'll come in 2019 Q1 and we've already moved halfway to it from 1.8p as the market times that reality going forward with 2s being proper whalloped these past two months because, on paper, it's a free bagger+ gift with no further upside priced in on *any* new discoveries between now and then.

So, each "T3" discovery is worth +3p on the MTR SP? More or less yes but bear in mind that we only need to build one plant and these seven underground domes in the wider T3 Dome Complex we're drilling the first three of right now (A1, A4 and A9) are all close enough to simultaneously feed that same plant so we only need one of those plants.

There will be additional costs to upgrade the (modular by design) plant over and above a processing rate of a single T3 feed but regardless, the economy of scale/synergy are virtually certain to send the existing PFS Expansion Case numbers streaking upwards in terms of profitability and reduced costs per pound of processed Copper.

So, let's say we bag another 3x T3 size deposits - that's +9p on top of the existing 4s target to get us to teens without taking into account any economy of scale increase *OR* Copper @ > $3 which will also balloon all the numbers upwards (DOUBLE all numbers at $4 Copper!)

Thank you Guiding Hand ;)

@ kayzer - charts and fundamentals are the same thing with respect to upside/downside.

Nobody is good at everything out of the box and other aspects of The Read take longer to learn than others - I'm no different.

Just chill and ignore them peeps - I know for sure who they are/what they represent across their various IDs and it sure ain't sellers :)

Tick tock.

Tee hee :)

Morning.

I can't speak to timescales of course but on a plain reading of the existing resource and PFS Expansion Case financial numbers that's how this opportunity will pan out on anything like similar sized new discoveries - we could beat T3 on size/grades on a new find of course, it's perfectly possible as we're drilling so many new and large targets in H2 and that 67m intercept on A4 the other day is already the biggest intercept we've had so it really could happen here.

Bear in mind the mid teens shout was in response to a question about what *I* would happily accept on an early T/O by a major as a finger in the air job on getting, say, decent discoveries on half of the targets we're drilling. Another 3-4 decent finds would likely justify that kind of number BUT remember that the likes of Rio Tinto are said to be willing to pay a 30-40% premium for the right kind of asset(s) so you never know, that kind of number could be seen here earlier than we think if/when the market overshoots a tad on great news and/or a major steps in to call a halt to proceedings :)

PS:

For ref - @ $4 Copper all those numbers double, yes DOUBLE (+6p per T3).

Also, these seven underground domes are all in the wider T3 Dome Complex around the current T3 pit resource - in late Summer 2018 we'll be drilling more targets around the Olympus Mons that is the T20 Dome Complex.

T20 is TWICE the size of the T3 Dome Complex and the soil anomalies (zinc) down there are very many times higher than T3. Purely speculative on my part but that *may* indicate that any resource there is shallow and could lead to another open pit like T3.

We don't need all of the Seven Sisters to come in with big grades or intercept widths for this to be massive :)

Apol's for the abrupt response earlier @tones but I was mid-game lol

This is how it goes in broad numbers and here's some reference notes first:

The Expansion Case of the Feb PFS has been met, or very likely exceeded, with last week's 60mt resource upgrade.

That puts the NPV at a minimum $400m @ $3 Copper with a minimum IRR of 38% (already exceptional!) and max AISC of $1.5 with $200m capex required to get it going to ultimately produce $1.1b of EBITDA on $2.2b of revenue.

That entire operation - carving out the ore and processing it to concentrate runs at break even with Copper @ $1.8 (Julian Hanna presentation).

That's what we've got "in the bank" (NOT priced into the SP - yet) @ $3 Copper. Copper's on a wobble at the mo thanks to Trump's nonsense but imo the Copper price isn't relevant here until well into 2019 - post DFS in Q1.

If we stop there and just do some pretty simple math in terms of a reasonable expectation of a sale of that then we'd likely be looking at something like 30% of the NPV - that's $120m net to the JV partners - 30% of that nets to MTR for a cool $36m cash in the bank - that's £27m. Add that to the c£15m cash + assets in the recent MTR results as at end of 2017 and there's your MTR SP @ 4s at cash only with ZERO further upside priced in.

We can pee about around the margins on those numbers of course but in broad terms that's about the reality of it with the current T3 pit @ $3 Copper being worth something in the region of +3p on the MTR SP.

Why aren't we at 4s yet then? Well because we haven't dropped the official DFS yet but that'll come in 2019 Q1 and we've already moved halfway to it from 1.8p as the market times that reality going forward with 2s being proper whalloped these past two months because, on paper, it's a free bagger+ gift with no further upside priced in on *any* new discoveries between now and then.

So, each "T3" discovery is worth +3p on the MTR SP? More or less yes but bear in mind that we only need to build one plant and these seven underground domes in the wider T3 Dome Complex we're drilling the first three of right now (A1, A4 and A9) are all close enough to simultaneously feed that same plant so we only need one of those plants.

There will be additional costs to upgrade the (modular by design) plant over and above a processing rate of a single T3 feed but regardless, the economy of scale/synergy are virtually certain to send the existing PFS Expansion Case numbers streaking upwards in terms of profitability and reduced costs per pound of processed Copper.

So, let's say we bag another 3x T3 size deposits - that's +9p on top of the existing 4s target to get us to teens without taking into account any economy of scale increase *OR* Copper @ > $3 which will also balloon all the numbers upwards.

HTH!