Member Info for bonker99

A timely note from our biggest shareholder - Rick Rule of Sprott - on how to sort the wheat from the chaff in the small cap resource space:

http://cdn.ceo.ca.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/1bsua9d-Rick-Rule-Questions-for-Juniors.pdf

Presumably MMc, CH, TG & co were deemed to be up to snuff ;)

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chile-mining-escondida/union-at-chiles-escondida-mine-sees-little-hope-for-contract-deal-idUSKBN1KB0PH

Timely ;)

Job done by/for those guys then with worthwhile information for new investors pushed off the front page - it was ever thus :)

Picking up on a few of the points raised:

We've seen the other guys constant naysaying here from 1.8p when they were shouting that 1.5p was coming and I was filling my boots to fill my entire SIPP with a 2.0p average. Since then we've done +75% in just 3 months so enough said. I've got other pensions of course but imo and given enough time, that holding alone could be a final pension-maker on its own - time will tell.

All those guys will have succeeded in doing so far is to put people off from making a fat short-term profit and/or for those seeing the possibly incredible upside from getting a low enough average locked away in their PFs so when this rise is seen to just keep on going up/sideways/up/sideways for years they, above all other PIs, see their holdings value multiply more than everyone else's as low averages become increasingly impossible to attain.

The art of making serious money in this game is seeing the shot *before* it unfolds and 162 and I have delivered that to those that took the plunge with us at/under 2p without question but we think there's WAY more to come here as the story unfolds and the market is forced to rerate MTR via their ballooning balance sheet.

Whether anyone wants to hold on/keep topping up at these comedy price levels is up to them but if you actually want to make money in this game on a consistent basis then these are the shots that you hold onto.

If you can't slay your Inner Muppet and hold onto these/keep topping up around this kind of SP then you're suffering from the same lack of patience/inability to see where something is going over time as most other PIs (y'know, the PIs that lose money 95% of the time) and the other mob will do everything in their power to promote that Inner Muppet via the usual offputting "it's not this, it's not that, it'll take 5-10 years to see profit" etc :)

Given the recent news, 2.7p looks exceptionally unlikely to be broken going forward as everyone can now see that 2.7p is the MINIMUM net cash/liquid assets on MTR's balance sheet via the multiplied equity stake/swap in that cracking JV restructuring but I have strong hopes, hell, a near expectation that the initial £15m valuation on that equity swap will balloon to the £35-60m range as time goes by when the MOD SP/mcap puts on some serious weight as the exploration campaign unfolds over the next six months.

The official, unequivocal, monetisation of that balance sheet explosion will occur on a successful vote by MOD's shareholders in October and I don't doubt it will pass as it's in everyone's interests. When it does, I'm thinking that +£35-60m gets dropped onto MTR's balance sheet and there's my 5s/8s SP chart TA shouts fulfilled - go figure.

Who to trust?

Nobody.

Google "MTR Blog" & watch the MOD SP.

That is all.

@ You lot :)

Yes, filtered some time back along with a few others and another one (another known entity) plonked in the bin just now - they'll all come crawling out of the woodwork now as you'd expect and it's all part of the game to try and discredit where THEY NEED TO to help further their boot-filling objective while the limited opportunity still remains :)

I refer you to my post this morning - they want useful information off the front page of this board where people cannot see it - there's no need at all to be stepping up on behalf of 162 and I, we're both grinning like Cheshire cats right now :)

As I've said in the past, if any of you have concerns about points raised by these guys (and I can only imagine the nonsense being spouted) then feel free to ask me about them directly and I'll give you a straight-bat response although I imagine most/all of the points will be of the impossible to dis/prove variety as they usually are with their well practised MO of seeding doubt in the minds of people who don't know any better - it's just a job for them and I don't take it personally at all :)

The talk on here doesn't add up to a hill of beans, it's all conjecture - let the news flow do the talking as it's the only thing that counts for diddly in this game and these guys are still reacting to the news flow we've already had but they likely as not already know what's coming next.

The better this gets, the more of this we'll have because they're losing/have already lost.

It's all part of the game ;)

#1

Hey :)

I've just dropped a new copper chart too - what you see there is what the likes of Rio and BHP are seeing and with respect to MOD's 2020 production start timescale it looks pretty awesome. No way are T/O deals going to be done at the current T3-only PFS NPV of $400m+ @ $3 Copper. Everyone can see the same thing so these deals are going to be done at an ever increasing $Premium going forward :)

OK, so I touched on how the drill campaign may shake out on Friday and whilst I do not know the answer to all those queries I would make the following observations:

Yes, 5 rigs to start with increasing to 10 rigs as the campaign unfolds.

A1 (deemed the highest priority before they started drilling!), A4 (with the 67m intercept the other week) and A9 being the first three of seven buried domes around the wider T3 Dome Complex that all *look* T3-esque in their nature going by the AEM tech deployed to identify the 10 major targets for this campaign.

The other three targets being the T20 Dome Complex (which is twice the size of the T3 Dome Complex!), T4 and T23 all to the south west of T3 which are to be drilled in August/September (don't forget the one month consultation period post-approval). Phenomenally high soil samples down there compared to T3 so it's my hope that we end up with another sizeable and cheap open pit ala T3.

#2

Given they've "over-committed" three out of five drills to A4 it would seem reasonable to summise they think they've hit something worthy of far greater focus there. That 67m intercept is the biggest intercept ever made on this land, bar none. By way of reference, the T3 pit story started with a 52m intercept at 2% copper culminating in a 60mt copper resource @ 1% copper.

IIRC, they were going to push that 67m intercept hole far deeper, all the way down to 600m if memory serves, to try and guage the depth of the mineralisation. That's important to establish because we're almost certainly talking about up to seven underground satellite resources here to add to the T3 open pit feed into the plant. The slab-like mineralisation in/around T3 is very wide so as you might expect, width x height = a big number if you can show you've got size in both parts of the equation :)

Again, I would think it reasonable to expect that all other activities in the campaign will be slowed while they focus on A4.

My general feel for how they'd like the story to develop is that yes, they'll let the market know of a good early hole but with my deramper hat on, one good hole doesn't make a resource and "anyone can get a lucky hit" :)

In that respect I would assume they're going to want to show that hole wasn't just a one-off and if they can show they've got multiple good holes on A4 then (in my parlance) the exploration there is over and now it's an out and out development job to fill it full of holes to establish the true SCOPE [ see what I did there? ;) ] of the discovery which may come at a later date of course.

As we well know, another significant resource discovery is a total game-changer here and if and when MOD are able to demonstrate convincing evidence of that then the market will do what it does best and react in a “shock” manner 

Assays are a finger in the air job of course but given that the first good A4 hole was a few weeks ago I don’t think it unreasonable to think they may already be in possession of assays for that hole. They may, however, upon seeing another good looking hole, decide to bundle the assays up together to drop a proper an undeniable multi-hole/multi-assayed bomb into the market so, again, who knows on timescales overall but all good news is great news from here on out and additive to what we already have in the bank via T3 so let’s not forget that … All in all, I would guess that we’ll be in receipt of assays soon/in August.

As for progression to/on the other domes I have no idea other than suggesting that once A4 is of a “known quantity” they are likely then to move rigs over to the other targets.

#3

As for news quantity and regularity, well, in my near-decade of stock market trading I’ve never known so much (stellar!) news to drop in such quick succession already but there’s no reason to think that will slow down going forward. In fact, I think it likely that we won’t go more than a couple of weeks or so without something else dropping due to the nature and size of the campaign and that will likely continue into 2019 Q1 from here unless someone calls a stop to it before then of course ;)

You’ve made reference to the non-JV targets there in T1/T7 and I should also point out that whilst we always had exposure to additional good news coming from there via our prior 6% holding in MOD, we’ve just multiplied that with the JV restructuring so, yes, ALL good news coming out from MOD is good news for us now, more so than ever before.

We’ve spent hundreds of hours of our own time researching the MTR opportunity and, hopefully, got quite a few people in with belting 2s averages over the last year or so since we created the blog in Spring 2017. The 12-month delay since then has been a proper PITA but boy is the news pouring in now and we’re yet to see the stuff that really matters – The Truth Machine (the drill bit) giving us the reality of what’s likely to kick off right here, right now.

All told, we’ve liked c5p from the very get-go in 2017 based on just the existing T3 pit back then but that does not take into account either the huge +44% copper resource upgrade to 60mt the other week or the sheer size and potential of this exploration campaign which, in the fullness of time, may multiply that c5p target/new SP base many times here on continuing good news.

If and when Rick Rule is given cause to take his £9m in 6p warrants (to bring his £13.5m MTR average down to, wait for it … 5p) then watch out – enough said.

One final note before I take a break – I cannot give enough credit to the CEO Michael McNeilly and the Chairman Charles Hall for both their ability and their conduct.

That JV restructuring deal that MMc brokered is phenomenal for MTR shareholders and WAY ahead of 162 and I’s best hopes here. It’s a good job I was sitting down when I read it as my knees would definitely have gone  I got right on 162’s t*ts immediately afterwards as I kept badgering him for confirmation of what I thought I was seeing – sorry mate! 

Charles Hall’s £90k buy at 3.0p yesterday, 10% over the prevailing market price at the time, was not only an epic vote of confidence in the likely outcome here but also a very loud and clear message to the market that “boy have you got this wrong at 2s” and a “don’t worry, we’ve got your backs” message to PIs.

That ability and conduct would shame most FTSE 100 BODs and on AIM it’s not only exceptional but a genuine miracle!

Yes it's all psychological and it's a well-worn MO for these guys - they only do it because it works :)

They'll be screaming for a quid SP target etc on other IDs soon enough - it's all part of the game :)

All I'm suggesting is to play the ball, not the "man" - new money wants to feel confident in joining us and they know that so it's all about putting off that new money which they've been doing since their 1.5p shouts when we were at tuppence.

I have zero doubts as to where we're heading here and neither do they - hence ;)

Updated the blog with some errata corrections and more up to date pics etc - google "MTR Blog" - 25k hits is nearly upon us :)

Guys and gals, be advised that the main objective of the reverse-book talking pros on the other side of the fence is to fill the front page on this board with garbage to make it impossible for new people to get a feel for what may be about to kick off here as the lit fuse to the powder keg grows rapidly shorter.

I get the emotion but the more you hit back, the less useful information there is for new people, and their new money, to make a decision on whether to come in with us. There are no other objectives here, it's all those guys care about - stopping that new money from pitching in, especially at these price levels with what I don't doubt will be very limited availability in short order.

This is a money and influence game and most PIs won't read past the top half a dozen posts, certainly not the first page, so that's the valuable real estate that these guys fight for and they'll wind you up at every turn if they can. It's their job and they're very good at it but only if you react in the right/wrong way.

It's up to you how you post but that's the game.

Coffee's for closers ;)

Well we've had months of IWWBOOTOTW shouts and they've started coming in recently for once with Sunday night news drops so who knows, maybe we'll get the fourth(?) on the trot :) That last A4 hole news was very promising indeed so fingers crossed whenever it drops.

Whatever happens from here peeps, and whenever it happens, >3.25p is THE breakout line here and that's good forever, whatever news does or does not drop at whatever point in time.

PS: Has anyone else noticed the correlation betwixt the Copper price and the MTR price? Same low, same high, same major Bull pivot backtest level at c2.7 - kerazy :) Here's to $27 Copper! :D

We're doing our best - cheers :)

I'll try and get the blog straightened out/simplified to reflect all this amazing recent news next week :)

I can't see it cos he's in the bin but I can imagine ;)

Another year, another set of IDs ;)

It's all good - he's proper minted lolz

Presumably Happy Hour is over ;)

I won't be telling anyone when to buy or sell - that's up to them and you all need to be big boys and girls and take responsibility for your own decision making regardless of anything I ever say here or elsewhere - it's your money, not mine.

2.7p is a monster chart pivot though - that much I'll tell you.

The AIM mafia have her in a tight grip ;)

This is about that upside, not the downside, I'm very sure of that :)

The longer they're able to persist with this, the more I get to add at a comedy SP so it's all good from my perspective - if y'all have a different perspective then I'm afraid I can't help with that other than give my view on the shenanighans.

Perhaps they think something major may drop on Sunday night again - who knows but it's all good.

Talk about protesting too much ;)

:D

I can emote too :D

RNS - just look at that! :D

Guys and gals, don't EVER say that this BOD don't have PI's backs.

Just think how this would have played out *anywhere* else - massive dilution and BOD not putting eff-all of their own money into it, never mind above market rates.

The Chairman could have taken those extra 3m shares at 10% less than he's just paid for them via his options that still have 18 months until expiry and he took another 2m well above his 2p warrants price a few months ago too so that's +£135k of his own money over and above the 2p warrants he took now.

THAT'S conviction for you and a bloody clear message to both you and the wider market as to what he thinks the future is here.

You've never had it so good.

This is a tough game for most PIs and trust me, I do get it and empathise completely.

To our eyes, this looked great months ago but the news flow since then has been spectacular - the only missing catalyst now is more good drill/assay news from the ongoing campaign in Botswana but it sounds very promising so far on just two holes out of 60 to come.

I get some stick behind the scenes here for not ramping the hell out of this because I'm far more conservative in how I portray opportunities like this but that's just my style - I'm more about pointing out the likelihood of people *not losing* money than I am about screaming at the nailed-on 10x bagger we're all going to get next week because that's just BS and I just won't do it, even if I think it's a viable shout over time (and I really do think that BTW).

Trying to communicate the opportunity here in clear and simple enough terms is an ongoing discussion between 162 and I and I've got lots of free time over the next couple of weeks and I'll try and sort out a complete rehash of the blog to break it down for people as to why we have the view we have.

162 is a top-notch corporate bean counter and I'm a silly IQ technical guy so the way we see things as clear as day to us is different to most people so the challenge on us is to make this more understandable to the regular PI out there so we'll try and get that done ASAP.