RE: share currently punching below11 Aug 2018 12:06
No doubt about some people saying one thing and doing another but that's people and money for you.
Many will be downhearted at seeing us do low-mid 3s then within days we're back at mid-upper 2s again but at least there's a viable, non-bad reason for it - lots more money coming into the company to leverage across this big drill campaign.
BTW, for any that still don't get it, we're an investment company, we're not miners and we don't make anything except more money by spending money so re-caps like this should be expected, no matter how unfortunately timed they may appear to be - not least of all to me!
We did +90% in a classic 3-4 month upswing so that's not too shabby imo and likely reads well as to the next upswing from a new mid 2s floor, wherever that floor may find herself although from a 2.8p placing you'd expect any further dips to be bought into on an increasingly heavier basis the lower she goes.
Someone happy to take 2.5m (and more) on the bid at 2.65p so far at a 5% discount to the placing which isn't a surprise really. We *may* get some shakes to slightly lower levels but I'd expect those to be sponged up rapidly if and when they occur. Many will be eyeing a Wave 3 (the big one) from hereabouts I'm sure.
We're well into a higher lows vs an increasingly higher flat-top (2>2.5>2.8>3.2 but now at 3.4p) trading/chart formation which is the prelude to rounding out the ultimate move back to the flat-top around 5s that completes a large cup/handle formation on the chart.
What happens on the other side of that cup/handle is of interest to most I would think, at least those that don't trade very short-term. A plain-reading would suggest something in the 8-10p range to my eye.
We're obviously into a period of very heavily critical news flow in the coming weeks and months and opportunists will abound, even if they do overcommit themselves at some points and end up having to sell back to the market at a small loss to fund that committment. Nobody is going to get all of it 100% right, including me :)
Now the placing recap is out of the way, we can all rest assured I would think that all news is good news as it will merely add to the increasingly attractive T3 pit NPV value.
As for corporate/PI alignment, well I'm certainly no expert on what may, eventually, shake out here once MOD float on the LSE towards the end of the year.
Ultimately, I would expect all available options to be examined by all parties (including external/new ones) and I still see this as a great opportunity to multiply your money from mid 2s albeit that I can't state categorically what that multiplier will end up being, or the timescale for seeing that come to fruition but at latest 2019 Q2 to my eye. That epic JV restructure made everything and anything possible.
If you think that the eventual outcome here is already a done deal then I'd tend to agree and I'd welcome open debate on that.