Member Info for bonker99

You're welcome - FWIW, I've just updated the chart and November, maybe even Bonfire night itself, looks "pivotal" - fireworks? :)

That's likely the time we formalise the JV restructure and book a ton more MOD shares onto our balance sheet - what we don't know of course is what's going to happen to the MOD SP between now and then but we can all imagine/hope for something special based on ongoing drill/assay news - maybe even a first hit on the T20 monster :)

I mentioned yesterday that I don't think MTR is undervalued right now as things stand but that situation may change dramatically by early November and perhaps the market sees that too.

I also mentioned it can be difficult to keep a lid on your blue sky thinking when you're a holder but looking at MOD from a pure chart perspective it's not lost on me that their top price was $3.30 (in new post-consolidation 10x money) and the low is a PERFECT Fib 8x to that prior high.

Put the case that, over time, MOD are able to unearth a serious quantity/quality of Copper in Botswana, the Copper price escalates significantly (as we expect it to based purely on supply/demand) and the MOD share issue doubles to fund the exploration/development of the asset(s) and they get back to that prior $3.30 high on their chart and you're talking about a £Billion valuation. Net c25% of that to MTR and you're looking at c20p here - a perfect 10x from our recent 2p base.

Pie in the sky?

Maybe but I'm sure the same kind of thinking abounded (blue sky/pie in the sky) when Julian Hanna of MOD and Terry Grammer of MTR took multiple companies from microcap to $Billion valuations in ther respective pasts - it CAN happen if you've got the right commodity asset in the right place at the right time and I think we have just that.

Actually it's 40.6m MOD option shares for a zero consideration - i.e. free.

That's to protect MTR's stake in MOD from any dilution effect by MOD placing for future funding - the effective stakeholding size (limited to 12.5% at any one time) is 24.8% so it really is a huge holding in MOD and if MOD goes £Large then ...

Also, if MOD are taken over then all of the 40.6m option shares convert immediately with no limits - talk about a giant win for MTR right there ........

Morning.

Yup, one other tantalising tidbit I didn't mention re the MOD float later in the year is that MOD's project manager, JJVR, is said to be moving to London for two years from November.

Quite what portends I know not but it does Imply major involvement by another party (Just money guys or someone much more involved with the exploration drilling?) that are based over here - could it be a major??

https://twitter.com/IKN_Mark/status/1035614587226398720

Afternoon DR :)

It is difficult to not get over-excited and ahead of the facts on the ground with this setup right now and I'm as guilty as anyone of that but I simply cannot stop myself from joining dots and thinking that we may just be on the cusp of something special kicking off. That's over months/quarters of course, not days/weeks but nevertheless it does make me drool at times :)

Rick Rule is obviously very comfortable with putting his money and reputation on the line by lining up a further £2.6m investment into MTR and that breeds further confidence in our own investments here as the story continues to unfold.

I really do find the new KML JV and the MOD main LSE listing this year fascinating and, possibly, very portentous with respect to how this may all play out over the next six months or so.

Given our (sizeable for us!) commitment to funding further exploration across this vast MOD JV acreage (although we have dropped any commitment to T3/DFS funding of course with the new JV structure) I do find it VERY interesting that we have gone ahead and further exposed ourselves to similar exploration commitments with the new KML JV.

It really is difficult for me not to think that the MTR BOD must know that there is enough interest in these Kalahari Copper Belt projects to justify taking on such further commitments.

The MOD main LSE listing also suggests to me that there's (possibly £SERIOUS) London money interested in this region, the assets and the commodity itself as a possible BIG winning play over the coming year(s).

I find it impossible not to link the two moves together in terms of our boys knowing that not only does the future look bright on the ground in terms of exploration results but also an increasing level of interest, globally, in what may just become (over time) a seriously sizeable and all-new Tier 1 global source of unexploited and high grade Copper in the years and decades ahead, just as many/most older Tier 1 Copper supplies (in Chile in particular) are seeing their grades plummet.

That's classic PI blue sky thinking there of course and it remains to be seen how this really does play out but IMO, align the right kind of exploration results with the right kind of moves being seen in the Copper price as the EV explosion gathers pace and copper supply starts to falter plus see further evidence of big money making moves into this space and our hopes/expectations may not only be met but exceeded dramatically.

I also like the fact we're going to be holding a very substantial stake in MOD as a main LSE exchange listed company. I think it adds a bit more credibility to us as an investment vehicle away from the usual AIM casino stuff. That main LSE exchange listing decision further adds credence, IMO, to the thinking that there's maybe big money involved on the London side of the MOD listing equation.

Bring on the next drill/assay results ...

Yes, link added/updated in the blog - Google "MTRBlog".

BTW, this note from Sprott is in the blog but maybe many missed it - it outlines their bullishness on MTR and covers the new KML JV. It's from June so some things have progressed since then of course:

https://tinyurl.com/yd8kxj96

on the market, buys/sells and timing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FD7vLELww-o&feature=youtu.be

Interesting to hear him talk of an 18-month timescale and two lots of field work being required to see the value start to out.

Rick Rule first invested here in April 2017 so 18 months would be December this year, right around the MOD LSE listing time and this current MOD drill campaign being the second major exploration initiative in the Kalahari Copper Belt.

Bill Oddie delivering the goods Sunday night then mate? :)

Certainly is - some junior mining investments pay off big time :)

It's not about me, it's about the stellar partners we have, the tremendous asset and the value on offer here at 2s :)

peeps :)

I just got back from a three day business trip to Brussels just last night - nice to see such a large and successful raise from Sprott.

Onwards and upwards :)

Morning.

Nice to see copper playing nicely.

Yup, as discussed with many people away from here, there's a line of thought building that the October main LSE exchange listing for MOD may well involve a sizeable influx of cash for MOD to go all guns blazing on exploration to rapidly build up/multiply the scoped NPV value of the project(s) as our neighbours Cupric Canyon did with the huge amount of money Barclays of London threw at them a couple or three years ago.

Evening.

Yup, it doesn't make any sense at all for MTR to be going so large into the KCB via the new KML JV if they didn't think the MOD side of things was shaping up very nicely already.

Clearly, the Chairman thinks so otherwise he wouldn't have thrown such a big amount of his own money in here just a few weeks ago - he didn't need to do that and he obviously thinks he's going to get a very nice result from it.

Short-term SP moves aside, you've gotta follow the money here and there's more new money coming in and more new JV land to explore so the size of the potential prize once this all plays out just keeps getting bigger.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/aug/26/electric-cars-exceed-1m-in-europe-as-sales-soar-by-more-than-40-per-cent?CMP=share_btn_tw

A couple of interesting reads on Botswana mining/sub-saharan Africa money influx:

https://www.biznews.com/africa/2018/08/24/botswana-namibia-mining-streaks-ahead-sa

https://www.csis.org/analysis/world-coming-sub-saharan-africa-where-united-states

Morning.

Something I missed off yesterday's NPV post as I was in a rush:

A decent rule of thumb for valuing an asset with an NPV figure is that you start buying into it at/under 30% of the NPV figure as that's the likely valuation on a sale.

That number comes in at around £93m for the T3 PFS Expansion Case (prior to any possible throughput uplift as we saw recently with the +20% uplift on the Base Case) at $3 Copper and around £67m with Copper at its current $2.7 price.

With MOD's current mcap at less than £60m you can see why there's value on the table there given that we're not applying any value at all to the rest of the acreage, cash in bank, or the possible value of any new discoveries during this big drill campaign.

Keep hitting new and significant copper as they have done so far and it would be reasonable to think the market will start buying into the likelihood that MOD are significantly undervalued, especially if the copper price is seen to recover over the coming months.

Evening.

You may well be right and I agree, I think the MOD main LSE listing in October is significant.

What should also be of interest is that if MTR didn't already think/know that serious money was interested in the Kalahari Copper Belt then they wouldn't be expanding their interest in the area with the KML JV.

MOD:

£59m mcap

No idea on NAV but the NPV of the T3 "starter project" PFS Expansion Case is $400m @ $3 Copper (c$800m @ $4 copper) with an IRR of 38%.

Given that the PFS Base Case production of T3 was recently lifted by 20% from 2.5mtpa to 3.0 mtpa it may be reasonable to think that the above Expansion Case numbers could also see a significant lift ahead of the DFS in Q1 2019.

As for prospects, well more is more obviously so a higher copper price and/or new copper resources discoveries all add to the above value proposition here.

I'm not exactly bowled over with the drilling speed by MOD I must admit but there's a lot going on down there and you can't argue with the results so far.

So many major AEM targets identified you need two hands to count them all and their first drill pulls out 52m @ 1.5% and 15m @ 2.9% plus thin veins of up to 15% Copper - those are very, very encouraging results indeed and trounce what most explorers discover in the modern age.

Add scale to those grades, and boy do we have the prospect of District Scale here, and that's how you can end up with something worth a bloody fortune in the years ahead.

Note the BHP/Rio article I just posted a link to - interesting to see those guys making a lot of money out of low grade Copper having invested in lowering costs. Much of their grades will be as low as 0.5% in the older mines so you can see how attractive a sizeable copper project at 1%+ could be in the modern age and so far that's where we are - we just need to keep building it up and one day those guys may come knocking on our door.

https://smallcaps.com.au/bhp-rio-tinto-miners-start-pull-their-weight/