RE: MTR the place to be23 Sep 2018 15:11
Afternoon.
A big SP shout there mate but nobody is in a position to prove otherwise yet of course, particularly if the Copper price is seen to nudge back towards $4s into 2019.
I would assume it's in both MOD and MTR's interests to get another resource scoped/NPVd ASAP and the A4 Dome find looks to be on point in that respect so far. If they can get that into the Q1 2019 DFS then happy days.
MOD looks very well priced at $0.40s based on the T3 $400m @ $3 NPV alone so it wouldn't be unreasonable to think their SP could bag on getting another resource of scores of MTs of 1%+ Copper scoped and A4 Dome alone looks like it could deliver that based on what we've seen so far from the drilling.
The backdrop of the faux "trade wars" and ongoing record-setting Copper consumption by China is capturing my attention big time now as are the plummeting LME Copper stocks.
It's thought that it was a huge Copper short from $3.30 that drove the price down to a key technical pivot (for me cos it's tied to the $4.6 all-time high) of $2.55 recently and that the short was placed in China.
We know the Chinese are buying up Copper plays left, right and centre and I can well imagine they're doing their best to manipulate the Copper price to their own ends.
The big question of course will be what they then do to the Copper price having satisfied their Copper play buying requirements.
It could well end up being in their own interests to push the price well up going forward having secured a load of direct mining exposure around the world. They're not stupid, they're loaded with cash and they know what the long term outlook is for the global Copper supply (not good!) so it's pretty easy for me to think they'll try and win on both sides of the price manipulation (pre supply squeeze) and market supply pricing (post supply squeeze) equation having positioned themselves appropriately over recent years..
Moreover and notwithstanding the current EV explosion's effect on Copper demand going forward, the Chinese are going to need an absolute sh*tton of Copper to be able to realise their OBOR dream and I can well see Copper becoming quite the strategic asset going forward as the Top Dog battle betwixt East/West gathers pace.
Ultimately, regardless of what is really going on behind the scenes, we know that the medium-long term outlook for the Copper price looks very good indeed with a sizeable shift in supply/demand arriving in 2019 and we look very well positioned to take advantage of that as the exploration>development>production make up of our big KCB plays progresses over time.
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