Member Info for bonker99

And received £6m of new money in the 10p placing don't forget - pretty hefty for a £24m mcap company.

There'll be a reason for that.

Brent back at $73.

LOL

12.9214p divi.

Moning - looking perkier - Dollar dumping again helps.

This chart position is a doozy - staring contest now.

Added.

In this "market" they're both right :)

Keep guessing mug ;)

Aye up.

What a day :)

Well we're not there yet but Silver closed just north of $15 so right on the cusp of a breakout and arguably already there imo but we'll know for sure when it's made it when it does it.

Plenty more jawboning to come no doubt but yes, the underlying figures, outside of govt/pentagon spending, really are poor.

The gist appears to be, aside from govt "money" accounting for almost 2% of the 3.2% "growth", that the inventory build is so great that consumers are going to have to weigh in massively in Q2. If they don't turn up then perhaps you're looking at the prospect of inventory dumping causing further deflationary pressure.

The problem with the PMI number is that it'll be skewed by the tariffs - which is why those tariffs were done of course - it boosts "prices" and stuffs channels, partly causing the inventory build in the process but hey, the numbers are all higher so it must be good right? Until you hit a possible vacuum in Q2 ...

As with all things, you have to look at this from a relative, rather than an absolute, perspective. The SPX has just closed on it's previous prior high of 2,940 with (IIRC) a P/E of 22 which isn't a completely ridiculous number but you've gotta be able to justify that forward-looking growth number and if today's numbers are meant to do that (some horror DOW numbers this week too of course) then I'm certainly not buying it :)

I'm not naive enough to think that it can't go higher whilst Trump & co are dumping it on retail (assholes!) but you've gotta be thinking now that either the high is already in or we'll see it in the next month or two and then gawd only knows what happens.

Have a good w/e all :)

https://twitter.com/bonker99/status/1121785485485981698

Job done?

http://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/silver.php

$1,287

Gold:Silver ratio now 86:1 - for now - not quite an all-time record but bloody close.

Dollar still dumping.

Don't blink.

Some of that (really quite horrific) smelly detail:

https://twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1121765729844572161

Gold @ $1,285

You can't claim 3.2% when 2% of it comes from printing money/public spending lol - or you can but you're going to murder your currency.

As I say and with ref to topics discused earlier today - these are clever/deceitful people by nature so perhaps the ducks are indeed aligning, just not in a way that they can fess up to or is immediately understandable to plebs like us.

It don't half reek though - there's a lot of very smelly detail behind that headline number.

You're going to have to wait and see how the market continues to react to the reeking BS coming out of the US mate - on the face of it, they achieved that 3.2% GDP "growth" with 2% of the number coming from govt spending and that's clearly not good as it implies ongoing printing press to keep it recession away - hence the Dolalr drop/PMs move up presumably.

These really are pivotal times - if the market calls BS completely then anything can happen to the upside but it may take a while for the pieces to fall into place, there's a lorra head scratching and money moving around right now as you might expect.

As for FRES - well this is the world's biggest Silver miner and Mexico's biggest Gold miner and sat on an oversold daily RSI so there's plenty of scope for a decent lift from hereabouts but it's going to rely on the Silver/Gold price of course.

I still maintain 1.3k/2k targets should the PMs balloon start to fly.

Consensus appears to be that underlying GDP is c1% with the "headline" 3.2% being BS - clearly that's the position of the big money out there - Gold/Silver up, Dollar down.

Talk about Through the Looking Glass ...

Umm, a 3.2%(!!!) Q1 GDP print and the Dollar is getting creamed with Gold & Silver both moving up.

Is the market, finally, calling BS on the US numbers?

Eyes down then - it's getting lively out there - GL peeps :)

Trump is a nobody, I doubt he's made a single decision on anything yet ala "W" - it's all panto, banks and the likes of Bolton call the plays.

Talking of which - someone appears to have spiked Russia's EU-bound oil with chlorine, presumably via the pipeline that runs throught the recently US-bought-and-paid-for Ukraine.

If I'm Putin I'm rolling the tanks in no questions asked.

Let's see what that does for Gold/Silver ;)

Yes, I'm pretty sure they've pumped the oil price to help hide the underlying deflationary pressure.

It's obviously a very complex picture to try and get to grips with of course but I simply cannot help but think that the US is now having to compete globally like it has never had to before with the rise of the East/developing nations and you really don't want a strong currency in that scenario.

Ultimately, if your average US worker demands $20ph and there's a growing army of workers outside the US willing to do the same work for half (or less) that then eventually that is going to cause you a major problem, exacerbated of course if a foreign buyer of your services is paying nosebleed exchange rates to pay you in very expensive Dollars.

Something has to give here IMO and we've not even mentioned the national/personal debt levels which surely must be a major constraining factor with the majority of the US GDP being based on consumerism. I noted last year that the credit reference agencies loosened their good/bad thresholds to allow more people to take on more debt but clearly, there has to be some limits here where the numbers simply don't work anymore.

I can't see past a prolonged period of stagflation in my own thinking - I simply cannot see where the spare capacity is between what people have and what they owe without what they owe being inflated away somewhat by five or so years of 3-4% inflation.

The attractiveness of the Dollar you mention is spot-on but that's a big problem for the US imo :)

Clearly, they need to give everyone a good reason to stop pouring into it and look elsewhere and rate cut(s) would certainly achieve that. Then you're left looking for a bucket that's big enough to handle the amount (trillions) of money that will be looking to diversify and Gold is a bloody big bucket with an inverse relationship to the very instrument you maybe don't think is so attractive anymore ...

Time will tell :)

Yup, this week will set the tone for the next quarter (at least) IMO.

US Q1 GDP numbers this afternoon are bound to be soft but it's not a normal quarter of course and the bulls will be using that as an excuse along with all the other obsfucating measures put in place recently.

All other things being equal, and I'm not an economist of course but if you're rocking near-record unemployment at 3.8% (a hefty amount of part time gigs rather than real jobs in that number IMO) and you still can't hit your 2% inflation target then there's a serious underlying problem to be dealt with imo.

Moreover, US tax revenue has been flat for a decade now - the money pumping has acheived diddly in real economic term but they've got themselves a nice $trillion budget deficit in the process ...

If it isn't right now then we'll have to take another view in 3-6 months time but some terrible earning numbers on the DOW this week would, to my eye at least, portend a slowing economy over there (as we already know we have everywhere else in the World) and, for once, I think Trump/industrialists/Fed will have their thinking aligned re cutting rates to keep the deflation horror at bay and boosting exports by weakening the Dollar.

Almost half of US corporate profits come from abroad so given the Dollar's recent boom that would seem to be a real problem for them going forward if they don't butcher the Dollar.

As for PMs - well the only ingredient missing from that complex cocktail these past years is that inflation but perhaps that's about to change - Gold/Silver typically do well when monetary policy reverses and the Fed have a habit of raising slowly but cutting hard when they make the move so let's see what happens.

All the ducks seem to be aligned but whether it's now or later remains to be seen but it feels right so far.