Member Info for bonker99

Silver will only move up with gold imo and may well lag it - to begin with - if an economic downturn is perceived to be the driver for gold's move.

With FRES being the World's biggest Silver miner we'd all like to see Silver make a move but we're 50/50 Gold/Silver here so it'll all come out in the wash over time.

The really interesting aspect to Silver, compared to gold, is what happens when it does boing because historically it's had days/weeks of nosebleed vertical rises when it does kick off - something to look forward to later on perhaps :)

See, now this is what I'm talking about - the Dollar moving up as I type and gold going WITH it ...

I'll stick with my 1k/1.3k targets :)

FFS:

https://imgur.com/a/kbnBT2d

A nice gap-up here then - Gold and the Dollar both flat so far today.

An interesting chart that's been at the forefront of my market thinking these past six months or so:

https://ei.marke****ch.com/Multimedia/2018/08/23/Photos/NS/MW-GO866_histor_20180823143601_NS.jpg?uuid=62d095b6-a703-11e8-af13-ac162d7bc1f7

Interesting:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-13/as-trade-woes-punish-s-p-500-newmont-goldcorp-is-market-victor

Coffee @ 81 IMO ;)

Nite.

MMT scares everyone, especially those holding dollars but not those buying gold lol

I see they're planning on holding "hearings" on it to get the Dem's perspective but ultimately, nobody in the US, of all places, is going to turn down $2T of freshly printed money to stuff into the hands of consumers/the wider economy.

They can't do more big debt with rates anywhere near where they are as they're already, on current trajectory, only going to be capable of paying off just the debt interest within five years and that's without any real downturn in the GDP in the interim period.

I'm as sure as I can be that they know the score, they simply must keep the numbers going sideways at worst case otherwise it's game over. In the interim period, tariffs and oil pumping help keep the wolf from the door whilst they prep the MMT money printing machine.

The thing is, given where they are, I actually think it's the smart move as they'll come out of it with a weaker currency which will boost their exports - they simply must kill the dollar IMO otherwise they're stuffed in an increasingly globally competitive environment so a race to the currency bottom in 2020 looks odds-on to me.

They've gotta double-down with a massive expansion plan IMO to outgrow that debt - I suspect a fair chunk of that $2T will make its way south of the border ...

I'm not so sure they can allow any genuine Black Swan stuff mate because the margins between barely in control and completely lost it are getting wafer thin now IMO.

IIRC, I think this is specifically a US issue - look at EU indices performance vs US but again, IIRC, EU is rocking a 14 P/E vs SPX P/E of 22 ...

I don't see a mega market sell-off in the near term at least but then US Q2 GDP numbers could change all that given the monumental amount of channel/inventory stuffing they did in Q1.

I'm pretty sure this is all long-planned panto to drive the narrative to massive MMT money printing (fiscal debt - $2T of infrastructue spending being lined up over there already) to keep deflation away (game over ...) and to boost inflation to shrink the existing debt pile.

They're obviously driving oil up as best they can to further boost inflation with their BS games with Iran/SA etc.

I still maintain my long-held view of Jap-style stagflation with markets/economies going sideways at best with occasional days like today as the reality numbers keep pouring in and people wake up to the fact that the current best case is to continue to try and print your way out of it - killing the Dollar in the process (also a good thing for the US too over the longer-term IMO).

Clearly, the Fed can't raise rates and they can't massively slash them all in one go either so they've gotta come up with a new playbook - this is how it goes when you've lost control and run out of levers to pull ...

Gotta be good news for Goldies though (but not banks which would explain Basel3 and CBs epic physical gold buying these last years), if not right now then within six months IMO.

A proper beating :)

Yes, BTC flying lol, too manic for me to play with though.

Gold steady at around $1,300 as I type - DREADFUL day on US markets.

Again, this is all about pricing in rate cuts with the possibility/probabiltiy of the US printing so much money in the year(s) ahead to fight off deflation that Dollar-inverse instruments like Gold and Silver are bound to be steady, if not outright strong but it won't all come in one day.

If we get a proper economic downturn then Silver, as the more industrial metal, may lag Gold somewhat but if half of FRES' money comes from gold then that's just fine.

A nice low RSI here still so plenty of scope for a bit of a bounce, even if we have to wait some months for the proper win but if this goes our way and you're patient then you could be in a position of making money even in the shorter-term whilst many other sectors get dumped.

Over the longer-term though and, again, if the macro goes our way then something like this may well outperform just about everything else out there - if you stick with it ...

"the US now pays more than Greece for 5 and 10 year notes" - blimey.

Beating $1,300 looks important to me - keep yer eyes on it.

No worries - just an amateur's read of course :)

I am, however, pencilling in $1,435 for Gold if this is going to go our way from here.

Wow

http://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/gold.php

Get the popcorn in dude and write down the exact date/time you said that ;)

$1,294

We've all been here before of course :D

Yes, Silver moving too now - fabbo hourly candle on Gold - fingers crossed this it it guys, no sign of a paper dump yet.

$1,291 - one day Rodders ...

It's complicated mate :)

The US can't afford to take on more debt at increasing rates - as we covered this w/e - and that's why Trump is calling for rates to be slashed so they can try and print their way out of the mess they're in with cheap money otherwise they can't service the interest alone within five years.

I hear you on those yields going higher to attract the money but I would suggest that at this stage of the game you're also taking risk into account and the read-ahead that the US are almost certainly going to zero rates/kill the dollar to stay in the game - that's a pretty good reason to go for stuff sold in Dollars but not Dollars themselves, again, as I covered on the w/e.

Of course this is epicly complicated but trade war escalation (all planned panto of course) will undeniably push the needle towards stock market sell-off followed by rates being dumped and a move seen by Gold at this point will be part of that low rates read but there are of course various push/pull forces at play here and we're talking about trillions of Dollars changing hands/moving about from one yield-seeking instrument to another so, again, it's complicated :)

$1,290 dude - fingers crossed ...

FWIW:

https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno/status/1127914046311796736