Member Info for bonker99

So it is - my bad.

OK, well then that does put a different spin on things because Dugbe's book valuation of c50m will likely double on that DFS - maybe more if Gold has moved by then.

Thanks for that - that pulls upper targets forward by over a year and makes this very simple now:

You've got six months to get as many shares as you can get under 22p.

I've enjoyed the deflation talk all year from the usual FinTwit blue checks whilst watching Gold bottoming as it tracks the reality and the 10-year yield, whether it went up or down. All the signs of a serious reversal for Gold and not before time.

US GDP for Q3 is being marked down heavily now, almost to zero and that's a really big problem.

Flattening GDP in this hyperinflationary environment is effective recession and a deep one at that.

The Fed are trapped - if they raise rates the cost of the debt interest (already at 110% of tax receipts) balloons to unmanagable levels against an even weaker GDP as that rise will kill both business and the housing market.

I see little choice here but a mild taper, no interest rate rise and enormous YCC to keep the bond yields down and to ensure that the death knell of deflation is kept at bay - that really is the ballgame re the debt were that to happen.

Sprinkle in a little fear to the mix and this is precisely the ****tail (but without so much debt and an inability to raise rates!!) that saw Gold 8x back during the 1970s.

All we need now are the strikes over pay for the 1970s comparison - already being planned no doubt.

@aprogerson I did mean that - thanks.

I said the Gold price matters - obviously - it leverages the mcap targets up/down as you would expect so look out for a breakout above $1,800 because that's the ballgame from this position - going the other way, <$1,720 spells trouble in the short-term.

Gold may go to the moon, or it may not - hard to see how it doesn't in the current hyperinflationary environment of c14% inflation in 2021 (real world as measured in the 1970s - not the comedy modern "CPI") with likely more than that to come in 2022 but time will tell.

as Hummingbird transforms into a mid-tier Gold producer @ 300k+ oz pa.

Chart:

https://twitter.com/bonker_99/status/1452246498469728259

While appreciating the discussion on all-things-Yanfolila guys/gals, as I've said a number of occasions recently, this play really is all about Kouroussa and Dugbe, it doesn't matter what does or does not happen at Yanfolila anymore.

I've put timelines on the chart for the expected news flow over the coming weeks and the expected timelines for Kouroussa production, Dugbe DFs and Dugbe production.

The known unknown right now is what happens to the Gold price in the coming period as these targets are highly sensitive (up and down) to that from the current c$1,775 price.

To my mind, that's the only unknown (that matters) now that we know both Kouroussa and Dugbe are fully financed and there's no placings coming here.

I understand talk of taper/rates rising etc but to my mind, while a limited (and doubtless short-lived) taper will occur, I do not think there is any chance at all of a rates rise ahead of US mid-terms in 12 months time as it will destroy the US housing market - again - so maybe after those they'll tweak rates up a tad before inevitably dropping them again months later.

By that time I expect Gold to have hit an intermediate target of $2,400 with anything up to c$3k within a year after that.

Rates/yields have the lowest ceiling on them ever because of the still-booming debt - we know this - and I expect YCC by the bucket load within a quarter or two to keep them down, probably with Lael "YCC" Brainard at the helm of The Fed following Powell's dis/graceful exit.

The upside to inversely correlated assets, such as Gold, is not limited in any way - there's only one way this is going over a given timescale - the fear hasn't even begun yet and I still maintain my view of a likely "credit event" within a quarter or two too.

Happy to add to my prior 16p average here at 17.4p on Friday's ever-so-convenient drop, have cash banked from other big goldies on Friday waiting for more in the weeks ahead at any price.

Notable on the weekly chart is the fake print at 16p they threw down on Monday which back-filled the weekly gap-up nicely for us (and implying a Double-Bottom to 30s of course) after the 50% rise we saw on the Kouroussa financing news so no need to return there but if it does I'll happily meet you all there again.

Expect it to get noisy in here over the coming weeks :)

Had a quick look just now - certain to test $59k but on the assumption it closes this week red - looks likely - then I like $52,680 on Wednesday.

You'll owe me a(nother) drink if that shout comes off ;)

Quite :)

It is what it is - many are looking to get in - 3 weeks or 3 months I do not know but keep an eye on Gold re The Fed in three weeks time - taper/QE/YCC etc.

I banked profits on all my other goldies (6 of) this afternoon - this is the only goldy I bought today - expecting SP "pressure" in the coming period, happy to keep stacking ahead of Q1 2022 - nearly there now ...

Up the Villa!

That Gold candle lol

The Fed are funny :)

Have a good one y'all.

I took a few more too on the Gold breakout - upping my average from 16p but that's fine - it's just time now.

I did ponder earlier about tossing some to use elsewhere but I honestly looked at my (substantial) watchlist and couldn't see anything more worthwhile than this :)

Maybe they can keep it going sideways for six weeks or so or maybe they can't but there's always more dry powder for this.

Stay with the mo ...

Gold @ $1,812 - looks like it's going to reach for $1,830 - that should wake some people up.

Big move this if it holds it - getting hot now so could spike along with Gold/Silver.

Bitcoin being slammed again just as Gold flies - funny old game ...

Whoopsy - NOT a good look for BTC to be bombing again when Gold is flying - I have to assume a c$56k print from here.

Uh oh, algo bot not happy :)

Nobody can see into the future with 100% accuracy but PFS are usually +=30%, DFS +-10%.

The numbers I'm quoting are standard industry-wide valuation metrics for PFS & DFS NPV values.

Those numbers are based on $1,775 Gold as an average across Dugbe & Kouroussa - I'm completely ignoring Yanfolila.

Gold @ $1,806 now.

I can't help on FCF directly but again, I know with absolute certainty that the value of Dugbe & Kouroussa *@ $1,775 Gold* is 28p so forget Yanfolila completely if you like.

Why aren't we at 28p then?

"market mechanics"

Cash throw off by 2023 - 2025 (Kourassa + Dugbe production)?

£500m easily and that's at the current Gold price so, y'know, do the math ...

Gold @ $1,800 - where Gold goes BTC must ...

If you're wondering about that flurry of big buying - that was Gold going to $1,800 just now.

Who cares? :)

Stick to what matters:

Gold is tracking the 10-year UP exactly as I predicted it would do some time back.