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@pekingduck - I agree with many of your views on Andrada, I always have, but comparing to AFM I think is missing the point a little.

AFM is an excellent investment if all you want is exposure to the tin price over the next 10 years (which is their mine life, unless they buy out RMR which is a different topic !!). If you think tin will stay high, invest, collect the dividends, and hope the surrounding geopolitical environment stays stable.

As HarChris is saying, with ATM we're betting not just on tin prices, but on one of the multi-asset plays hitting the big time. It's been painfully slow, as we all keep saying, but the tin operation really should be at a turning point now - with the new jig running, ore-sorters coming onstream this year, and potentially Goantagab, it will finally be a stable, profitable operation even at lower tin prices. The risk of having to fund those other assets is also now removed via the partnerships.

The exciting part about ATM, which AFM doesn't have, is exactly in the "ifs" that you mention. It trudges on for now, but some day Rodney...........

@TDT - AV is very much driving this.

From the original SQM RNS - “Andrada will manage and operate the project during the earn-in period”

They are planning 120 holes over 18 months, so a little under 7 per month.

They reported on the first 15 holes after 6 months, and we're now 2 months on from that - so 8 months into the 18 month Stage 1 exploration (which might now be quicker than 18 months given they put an extra drill rig onsite).

They had said they would be reporting throughout H1, so the next batch must be any day now.

Yes, it'll all help, but needs a fairly big increase to make a meaningful difference. The royalty rate would appear to slide something like this :

Per Year Per Quarter Royalty %

1000 250 9.63

1100 275 8.88

1200 300 8.13

1300 325 7.38

1400 350 6.63

1500 375 5.88

1600 400 5.13

Basically it reduces by 0.75% for each 100 tonne per year increase. This assumes it's on a straight sliding scale, which would seem likely.

For those 6 months the royalty per tonne was $3,054, which works to 9.2% of the achieved tin price of $33,154.

They made 511 tonnes of tin in those 6 months, so a bit higher than the 1,000 tonnes level, so the royalty percentage is a bit lower than 9.63% applicable at 1,000 tonnes.

More recently the royalty is probably well over $4,000 per tonne as the average selling price would have been above $40,000.

So $4,000 per tonne on 271 tonnes means them paying out over $1m per quarter on this royalty, until they expand output.

Unfortunately we've no idea if they'll produce 1,200t this year as they've not given any guidance on what the new use of the jig plant means for output. It should be at least 1,200t, likely much more, but we don't really know.

The last published figure on the royalty was for the 6 months ending 31st Aug 2025 - when it was costing $3,054 per tonne. It's absurd that they are paying out this much per tonne of output - I'm sure Orion, or now Evolve, can't believe their luck that Andrada messed up their expansion so badly.

Any royalty rate above 5.13% was only meant to be temporary - it's even worded like that - yet here are, and they've been paying 9.63% out for over a year now.

Sorry, error in my last post. Should be :

It's 100% to Andrada until the plant is fully paid for.

It's 50/50 if it's Goantagab ore through the new plant, or 60/40 if it's Goantagab ore through the Uis main plant (remember - they expected to get the high grade ore before finishing the new plant).

The agreement that has been disclosed so far doesn't cover what happens in the current situation.

It's 100% to Andrada until the plant is fully paid for.

Then it's 50/50 if the plant is processing Goantagab ore, or 60/40 if processing Uis ore.

If it's being used as a pre-concentrator and the main plant is doing the rest of the processing - who knows ????

The "Accelerated-bookbuild-presentation-26-June-2025.pdf" file on the Andrada website contains the forecasts.

In the slides they call it "tin in concentrate" but I queried that with them and they said that was just another name for contained tin.

So they had it going from around 1,099 tonnes pa currently to 2,484 tonnes pa with the new jig and high grade ore at 20,000 tpm (this forecast is meant to be for this FY, Feb 26 to Feb 27). Rising to 2,811 tonnes per month once the ore-sorters were up and running (for the following FT, Feb 27 onwards).

Absolutely game changing, which is why we all got so excited at the time.

Agree on the profit guidance, but then we don't even have any tin output forecasts or guidance so it's not surprising. The last tin output guidance they gave was in June 2025, which assumed Goantagab ore flowing and new jig fully operating.

Now we have no high grade ore flowing, and the new jig operating as a pre-concentrator for the main plant, but they've left everyone guessing as to what that actually means for output.

It's not like they're a listed company with shareholders is it ? Why would they feel the need to give any forecasts or guidance ?

@Gibdog101 - You are of course correct, bottom line, there is now a 2nd jig, and at the big picture level, that is great news.

Your points about communication are also spot on - you are guessing about them now being able to produce 1200 tonnes. Someone else might guess 1400. Why should we be guessing though ? Most companies will provide a forecast after completing a key expansion project. Andrada were happy enough to provide forecasts when looking for the money, but now it's reality they leave everyone guessing. And on that expansion - previous RNS announcements on the jig have contained these phrases :

- "Potential for immediate, significant increase in tin production and therefore enhanced cashflow"

- "Importantly, the new plant will operate independently, ensuring there is no disruption to current mining activities or to the ongoing expansion aimed at boosting tantalum and lithium revenues at our primary plant."

- "The Plant will have the capacity to process a wide range of tin ore grades"

- "Initial feedstock will be sourced from the Uis proximal pegmatites "

- "The modular design allows for scalable expansion while operating independently, ensuring uninterrupted production at the primary processing plant."

- "The plant is a key milestone towards doubling production"

Now that it's finally completed, 14 months after the financing was secured, and this new RNS contains the word "jig" just once, in one sentence, in the middle of the long text. No big fanfare - the jig doesn't even make it into the Highlights section of the RNS.

It's a "key milestone towards doubling production", and the fact that it's completed gets slipped into one sentence, that you get the feeling they would rather have not put in there. No pictures or videos on social media, no interviews announcing it. It was a key project, and it seems they would rather no-one notices it.

The entire communications and investor relations departments at Andrada need replacing. Even if the jig isn't entirely doing what it was planned to do, they should be selling the story of what it will achieve.

I just don't know what to make of Andrada and the way they operate. I've long given AV the benefit of the doubt, in the continuing expectation of some stellar delivery that will really move us forward, but it just isn't happening.

Todays RNS, whilst obviously not bad, was really just pumped up repeats of the long term strategic RNS announcements of the past quarter - it wasn't really an operational update much at all - they even changed the name to "Business Update" - I'm guessing because they knew that Operationally, it wasn't strong enough. It certainly wasn't the news on the 2nd jig that most of us were expecting.

The 3 big projects over the past few years have all been totally mismanaged. The Lithium pilot plant, where it was continually stated that it was going to be commercialised and that they would be selling the output, but never did, then just stopped mentioning it. The ore-sorters which have gone on an extended holiday.

Now the 2nd jig - it was only in August that they released an RNS saying it had finished being built, that it could process 40,000 tonnes of ore a month, and that they would be using Uis ore with grades between 0.14% and 0.3% until Goantagab was available. Now, they're not doing that at all. They just slip in one sentence saying it's now being used as a pre-concentrator for the main circuit. Do they give any forecast or even any vague idea of what this means ? No, of course not - they just leave everyone guessing.

After all the announcements, to have Q4 in FY26 producing less tin output than in Q2 FY26 is extremely disappointing.

The trouble, of course, as an existing holder, is that the assets are such that this company could transform any day - with an offer from SQM, spectacular results from BW, or even (for olds time sake) an offtake agreement for lithium from Uis (Anyone here remember AVs interviews a couple of years back where he just kept repeating how either the lithium, or the tin, was for free - I wonder if he ever re-watches those ??)

Despite all of AVs big talk, the core business has been scraping along here for the past few years, unable to successfully execute any major tin expansion. Tin output is only slightly higher than 3 years ago - not what anyone would expect from reading the presentations produced during that time.

Trouble is, it's hard to take these slide decks seriously any more.

The last one, from June 2025, said that the jig plant WILL BE commissioned in H2 of CY2025.

It also forecast a 90% increase in tin output for FY2026 (ending Feb 2026).

As we all know, neither of those things happened.

I'll take more notice when AV says " We have doubled tin production this year" - it's just a bit more meaningful than "We're looking to".

After all, I'm "looking to" make £100 million trading profits this year. I probably won't, but I'm definitely "looking to".

I think this would have sky-rocketed as well if they'd done anything close to what they'd said they were going to do over the past two years. SQM, ACAM and EIB are all great, but they are years away from meaningful contributions to the business.

Meanwhile they spent a fortune on ore-sorters, then stopped mentioning them after they were delivered. They were meant to be installed and going through commissioning from April 2025. We still don't know what happened with that project.

In June 2025 they put out a forecast saying they would produce 1,900 tonnes of tin in the 2026 financial year - with a 2nd jig plant and ore from Goantagab. That financial year is now over and they'll actually produce just over 1,000 tonnes - so a miss by miles.

We're now 13 months on from when they got the financing for the 2nd jig, and announced an "immediate, significant increase in tin production". Shareholders still don't have a complete picture of the state of the 2nd jig, or when it will be fully operational.

They obviously still have all the potential, but it's not really any wonder that the share price is lagging like it is, when they're not even close to hitting those few targets that they do put out.

The positive is that the share price could flip very quickly once we actually get these projects delivered - the background of tin, lithium and tantalum is so strong, the turnaround to profitability once the expansion is completed will be significant. It's just unfortunate that given the poor communication and signalling by the company, we have no idea when that might happen.

Andrada traded below 2p on the 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th March 2025, and on those 4 days, 182.6m shares changed hands. It was very easy to buy, it seemed that no-one wanted the shares at that time.

Unfortunately I didn't buy 58m, but I did buy over a million on 6th March very easily, at 1.78p, so I know they were available.

If only I had timed all my other Andrada purchases as well.........

@jam2morrow - I have Quotestream which gives level 2 and full history of trade data

Just realised I could have looked it up.

There was a transaction for 58m shares at 14:38hrs on 6th March 2025 at 1.85p, so I assume that was them

We don't know exactly what they paid, but they announced their stake when the SP was 1.95p, and had been down to slightly above 1.7p in the days before that, and hadn't been above 3p for the 5 months before that.

So their average is probably close to 2p.

I guess it depends on the exact nature of the relationship between ACAM and BWCAM, as ACAM themselves are just under the 3% level.

The Certificate of Incorporation for BWCAM makes no mention of ACAM at all.

One of the directors of BWCAM is also a director of JCAM and UCAM - but no mention of ACAM.

Perhaps the control of BWCAM is just far enough away from ACAM for them to not count as an aggregate holding ? I don’t know, but I would suggest that this is more likely than ACAM having sold down their holding, only to invest again at a higher price through another entity.

@Gibdog101 - agree 100%, but note that even if the Put Option is exercised by BWCAM, it doesn't necessarily mean the issue of 300m shares. The terms state that - "The payment option will be fully elected by Andrada." If it does come to it in the future, Andrada will likely have other options for repayment than the issue of shares.

Also, on the wider point of whether it was a good deal or not - BW was on the books valued at £600,000. No partner is going to give you $51m on an asset that you yourself value at £600,000, without some serious clauses covering themselves.