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Oak Bloke ATM analysis updated today, post results - https://substack.com/home/post/p-148414746?source=queue

Thanks for that. Good to see someone other than AV speaking.

Nice to see the CFO wearing the company shirt as well !!!!

Take a read of : https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/lemme-atm-lemme-atm

And remember, tin prices are now about 25% higher than the average they were during the period of these results. Average was $25,593 during FY2024. Since the start of this FY they've averaged around $31,000 and Andrada have now edged 30% of their production at $33,000.

Margin is much greater currently than it was during the reported period.

Anyone expecting ATM to be throwing off excess cash and paying dividends at this stage is in the wrong the place.

There are real positives here. 83% revenue growth, more expansion in the next 6 months, lithium partner deal real close now, still £10m in the bank as of this week.

Still a sleeping giant, but it’ll wake up some day.

CRTM announces that it is re-repricing the 2,071,428 warrants held by Russell Fryer that had an exercise price of 5p, and 400,000 warrants that had an exercise price of 10p, to have a new exercise price, in line with the recently announced strategic financing, of 0.5p.

What are the chances ?

@pekingduck - "May have some update news this week, will post what I can"

I suspect you're doing the same as me at some point this week then ;-)

The value for Fryer now isn't in his shareholding, it's in getting his payments for CRTM buying MO from him (these may have been paid already, will have to wait for the accounts at end of October to see this - perhaps this is where some of the £1.6m from the April CLNs went ?), and getting his Baobab loan paid, which CRTM nicely agreed to take on the responsibility for when it bought MO.

The April CLN RNS said no single holder could own more than 30%, but I can't see how those terms can hold now - the numbers don't add up.

CRTM market cap £1.65m now.

NIU have £1m in CLNs from April, they've 4.2m warrants at 0.5p, they've £105,000 worth of shares at 2p, and are considering investing another £2.4m.

If they want the company I would expect they could take it anytime they want it. Fryers holding is pretty insignificant now, with all this dilution he must be down to around 5% at a guess.

Looks like they'll be getting nearly 50% of the company here if they commit the whole £2.5m.

I wonder if this is why RF was rumoured to be gathering up some "insiders" ? I would think some previous large backers won't be too happy with dilution at this level.

Oh dear.......

CLN at 2p.

4.2m warrants at 0.5p !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

No explanation of where the £1.6m from the last CLNs has gone..........

My main criticism at present is that I think they've lost their way a bit, strategically, and I don't just mean the "Strategic Process".

They had solid plans 3-4 years ago - Phase 1, Expansion, then Phase 2. As pekingduck has said, had they stuck to that and pursued it, they would be an order of magnitude bigger by now. The $15k spot tin price for a few months during Covid wouldn't have affected decisions to build a mine with a 20-30 year life. Besides, we've seen tin hit nearly $50k since then, and still haven't fully pursued how to get the Phase 2 ramp up moving.

I'm probably being harsh, but to me, the last couple of years are bit like - ooh, look, some lithium, that's nice........ooh, and there's some tantalum, we could do something with that......ooh, those ore sorters look good don't they.....

I've been a holder since early 2021, but if you asked me right now what the plan is to get to a full scale Phase 2 mine, and what the timeline is - I wouldn't be able to tell you. I've looked, and I've asked, and I should know - but I don't because I don't think the company are being clear on what the 3 or 5 year roadmap is now. I'm not even clear on what we're looking for from the Strategic Process, and given it's been going on for 15 months now, I should at least have some idea of what to expect. I just hope they know what they're looking for.

All that said, I remain positive for the future and positive that a way will be found to make this asset pay. I'm just frustrated with the present. Not just with the share price (although obviously that as well), but with the comms and strategy.

Of course it's all hearsay, because there's nothing else to go on.

Road meant to be finished - no news.

Ore sales meant to have started - no news

Lab analysis of previous drilling - no news

New drilling meant to have started - no news

Discussions with another processing plant - no news

USA Govt grant funding application - no news

Term sheet for $11m loan - no news

Undisclosed insider dealing by the CEO - The last 4 RNS releases

It's impossible to know. Only thing I can think of is that perhaps some of the big investors who have previously backed RF, have indicated some dissatisfaction, so RF is trying to collect up support from others.

Perhaps those previous backers are going to try to push a vote on something, so RF wants shareholders on his side ? Could it be related to the April CLN holders ? Or as you say, another placing - which would raise the question of what's happened to the £1.6m as that road couldn't have cost anything near that.

Pure speculation, and I can't see what the link is to why the road news hasn't been released.

It's really concerning that there's no news on ore sales. In Feb 2023 RF said "Buyers of the ore are circling" and here we are, 18 months later, and not a single pebble has actually been sold.

Same with drilling - there's never been any lab analysis of anything from Molulu - just handheld XRF scans which can mean anything. The previous drill results weren't sent to labs, and there's been no new drilling since last year, despite plenty of promises (as recently as 23rd May RF said in an interview that he was "speaking to the drilling company today", and then on 29th May said -"Drilling to start early July").

Nothing ever clear or straightforward with this company.

RF calling large shareholders may be BS, but it’s been confirmed by several people who were called by him and asked to sign papers to be legally “insiders”. The ones stating this refused to sign. Obviously if this is BS several people would need to be telling the same lies.

Other long term posters in the TG have suddenly gone quiet - presumably because they did sign.

Something is brewing and it doesn’t smell like it’s good.

There's something going wrong here isn't there ?

This is a company that used to provide updates on chickens, vegetable patches, and piles of bricks. Then on the verge of what should be transformative for them - the first sale of ore and first revenue ever, after two years of promises - it all goes deathly quiet.

The CRTM X account has even stopped putting up posts about the demand for copper, which it was doing every few days until a few weeks ago.

The shares today traded at 3.5p, having been 35p less than two years ago - that's a shocking record by any measure.

Funny how a long term holder in the TG group admitted this week he’d finally sold up and that he’d been wrong about CRTM all along and that Mazza had been right !!

Seems quite a few of the long term holders in that group have sold up and there’s not much of value there either.

It would seem someone took offence at me even mentioning another tin company, as my post must have been reported as it's been removed.

Strange behaviour for such an innocuous post. I won't bother again.

CRTM current market cap = £2.63m

Shares to be issued for CLNs = £1.6m

Those CLN holders will be getting around 60% of the company if they are converted around these levels. That's pretty bad dilution for existing holders.

I still can't understand why those backers provided £1.6m without any guarantee of why they would get their hands on the shares. There has to be more to that raise than was made public.