RE: Cenkos note out3 Aug 2020 10:05
"Better trading than expected
Seeing Machines has released a trading update demonstrating the
business is performing better than expected on key metrics: Revenues of
A$39.7m were 13% ahead of our expectations of $35.1m and cash of
A$38.7m was 21% ahead of our expectations of A$32.0m. We believe
this strong end to the financial year reflects the continued demand for
the company’s Fleet product by sophisticated fleet owners and that the
key home markets of Australia and New Zealand have been less affected
by COVID than feared. We believe this strong cash performance should
reduce the perceived funding risk weighting and help the valuation
recover towards previous levels. We iterate our Buy recommendation
and 7.2p price target.
Fleet installation rate back on track - Whilst the headline figure for installed units
by the year end is only 2% ahead of our expectations, it still represents 46% growth
YoY which is impressive considering the pressures on fleet owners this year. Also,
more importantly the rate of installations has significantly increased in the last few
weeks of the financial year from lows of 50/month at the height of the pandemic
lockdowns up to a rate of 250/month and rising. The helps support our view that
this business unit could grow revenues by more than 35% in FY21
Automotive product launches will increase visibility – With the launch of two
globally significant vehicles incorporating Seeing Machines driver monitoring in the
coming months, we believe value attributed to this business by the market will rise
despite COVID likely delaying some new RFQ activity. We also note that with
production systems in place at key global OEMs, new RFQs are not necessarily
needed by the OEMs as they roll the technology out to other platforms in their group,
as demonstrated by Ford putting DMS into the Mach-E as well as the F150.
Cash is king and the balance is healthy - The cash position at the year-end of
A$38.7m implies a significant reduction in the operating cash burn in the second half
to cA$8m from A$15m in the first half (we believe the company has not materially
increased its small debt positions). In addition to the better than expected revenues,
we believe the positive cash outperformance reflects the continued unwinding of
working capital in the fleet division as well as the diligent focus of the management
on cost control as well as the salary sacrifices made across the firm. The cash balance
reported is A$6.7m greater than we expected and now looks to cover the A$5.5m
cash shortfall previously forecast.
Management team is delivering in a tough environment – despite a longer road to recovery from the pandemic for most sectors, especially those exposed to transportation markets, Seeing Machines is now demonstrating both a resilient top line performance and an ability to manage the business for cash, helping support our revenue growth expectations and increasing the potential to run the bus