Member Info for Boffin

The half year report 2021 had the following statement

"Current order book included over 50 qualified fuel cell deployment enquiries, the 'majority of which represent multiple order potential,"

Rooky. I'm sure you are correct but to me leasehold of the site isn't full ownership of the site which is what the RNS says. It's just rather sloppy drafting of the RNS.

For the past few years the 6 month interim report has always ben issued before the end of June.

Hmmm!

I'm a bit taken aback by the statement

"Obtained full ownership and control of the Protos Plastics-to Hydrogen No 1 Ltd site near Chester."

Have we really taken the freehold ownership of that part of the Protos site to be used for the DMG plant. That's what "full ownership" means to me

And not a word about Creswick and Bailieston. I wonder if they are on the list of potential disposals to both raise cash and enable all the resources to be focused on Queensland?

I know the consensus on here is that Victoria has been a total failure. I think though that the nuggety nature of gold deposits there mean that far more drilling than ECR can resource is necessary to get reliable data . Just as an example at 50 g per ton present as just one nugget of roughly half a teaspoon full in size. The chances of hitting that with a 10cm drill core is quite small. Even if present as 10 5g nuggets in the ton the chances of hitting one are still low. Thats what the whole bag reanalysis confirmed. With nuggety gold deposits you need large samples or many drill holes to get reliable assessments.

One of the bigger gold miners may well think it worth a look either as a jv or a takeover. That would to me be a good way to raise some cash for Queensland and get someone onboard who can afford the scale of sampling needed in Victoria.

My understanding of the interview was that it may e some time before there is drilling at Lolworth and Hurricane. Lower cost activity to ensure best possible drill targets is the immediate plan . Some RC drilling may then happen but diamond drilling my not happen for a while.

Purely my speculation but this may mean that in the near term at least Midas 1 & 2 and associated crews may be doing contract drilling for others and raising some revenue to fund ECR's later programmes

We are now only 8 clear working days from the AGM and still no accounts or annual report.

I can't make up my mind whether the auditors have "concerns" or is the business hoping for some "big news" before the event.

Either way its really a very poor way to treat shareholders who should be given enough time to properly examine the documents before deciding how to vote.

I emailed Hiiroc almost exactly a year ago quoting the AFC RNS/press release and asking for info on status.

I received a very prompt and polite reply outlining Hiiroc's progress ( including the test with Centrica due to start later this year. I copied the essence of the message on here at the time

The person replying said quite clearly that they had no knowledge of anything to do with AFC.

Perhaps someone going to the AGM might care to pose a question.? Unfortunately I am out of the UK at the time.

Whatever views you hold on how well the technical side of the company is being run the admin is poor. Its been two weeks since the announcement of the AGM and delayed annual report. We are now less than nine working days from the AGM and still no Annual report or accounts available. By almost any standards that is poor and for example with my travel arrangements over the next couple of weeks will give me little free time to peruse and evaluate in such a foreshortened time frame.

Well no further updates on either the National H2 website nor an RNS from PHE suggest to me that a deal wasn't even close to being "oven ready" let alone done as NH2 implied.

Given they haven't even raised the funds to do the planning phase let alone enough to build a DMG giving them Pan Pacific exclusivity seems a substantial risk to me. That is unless very tight get out clauses on specific delivery milestones on finance raising, construction and operation etc are incorporated. We don't need our hands tied by another Protos/ Peel infinitely elastic timeline exclusivity.

Unfortunately thy haven't done the numbers. They have basically rehashed the output numbers that PHE have published on numerous occasions. The claimed deliverable outputs do indeed paint a pretty picture. But these mean little without clarity of what and who will be required to get there.

What they haven't done is disclose the input numbers such as the capital construction costs ( let alone where the capital is going to come from) nor the projected operating costs ( and thus the working capital requirements. And certainly no mention of what and when PHE may expect to earn from this. Yet they claim they know the IRR to be 15%. They must therefore have some detailed awareness of what these inputs look like but choose not to say.

Look, it may be for whatever reason they don't wish to publicly declare them although any intelligent investor would demand to be given a sight of them as part of any sensible due diligence.

Apart from the above information vacuum my major concern is doing a deal with a business that has yet to demonstrate the financial and management competencies to deliver the stated program . We then risk ending up with another Peel/Protos situation where National H2 hold a regional exclusivity but take years to get anywhere.

I hope to be convinced that all is well but for the moment I'm not

Nuthazard. An interesting find dated 30 March 2023. The very same day that PHE issued an RNS saying they hadn't reached an agreement ( although confirming discussions happening).

Who should I believe and why?

I've just been re-reading the National H2 prospectus.

And now I find it even odder.

The money they seek to raise is just enough to do the planning so that construction can start Q4 2023 with comissioning circa 9 months later

No mention of where the cash to build the first plant is coming from nor even how much they will need.
From what we know of Protos engineering some items need very early ordering. Probably within a couple of months if National H2 are to hit their stated commissioning date. Is this credible?
No mention of fees to PHE

Plus just a view on the National H2 board. Their CV's to me don't seem quite what I would expect for tackling a project like this. OK I'm a retired pharma biochemist not a chemical engineer but if we were putting together a new manufacturing plant ( and I've been involved in a few) then the team running the project wouldn't look like them.

So who is going to manage the build program? And where is the money to pay them coming from ?

To misapply an old phrase this presentation begins to look like "All fur coat and no knickers" to me

I certainly didn't say or think that the PHE BOD have done anything wrong in their handling of this.

I think National H2 have put themselves in a difficult position for at least 3 reasons

Legally they are making statements which it would appear they cannot currently support. If , just as an example, they were to use this to attract shareholders investments or loans this could be seen as fraud.

Second they are in a weaker negotiating position with PHE re financial terms and conditions of the deal. National H2 have effectively forced themselves to do a deal. Very odd!

Third it can't help trust between the two companies when one of them is leaking information that there is a discussion and essentially indicating there is a done deal. Normal best practice are synchronised joint statements. This most certainly isn't and its not good for mutual confidence.

Don't misunderstand me. I'm very happy to see a deal that offers PHE a decent return on its IP but as of yet we have no idea what that may be in this instance. Yes we know what the proposed licence fees were a few years ago ( and a few BODs ago!) but now is now not then

And a week ago PHE issue an RNS acknowledging discussions but stating "There is no agreement with National H2".

I can't recall ever seeing a disconnect in public statements between two companies quite like this. A very strange environment in which to engage in negotiations.

Thanks everyone for the constructive input.re potential DMG at Protos.

I have though come up with a further issue that for me could be a total show stopper at Protos.

Lets suppose for a moment that a DMG gets built, at least substantially paid for by PHE and borrowings and a rather more modest amount (if anything at all) by Peel.

The question then is what is the price to be paid for end of life plastic gate fees ? Suppose Peel then play hardball (Whittaker's favourite sport by all accounts) and dramatically cut the fees per ton they are prepared to pay PHE? What could PHE do? . We could obviously try to get feedstock from elsewhere but it may not be that easy when Protos are busy absorbing plastic waste from miles around. The whole thing could be bankrupted in months and Peel pick it up for peanuts

I obviously am not privvy to what issues are currently being negotiated but if a long term minimum gate fee price isn't included then I am rapidly moving to a position that I hope we don't build at Protos and head for a FOAK elsewhere. To me Peels behaviour so far on our project ( and some others not related to Protos) means we need to be very careful.

Piltick. It's quite possible that you are right. But just to play Devils Advocate I'll toss in a couple of other thoughts

First if Peel really just want to drop it why bother with a four week extension or indeed why have PHE agreed to it when they didn't have to? It suggests to me there is some reason that both parties see that it's worth keeping negotiating for a bit longer. It may of course come to nothing but its a very limited duration so they are probably quite close.

Secondly Peel's reluctance may be much to do with timing . Why would they put money into building the DMG plant some years before feedstock would have become available from the Protos sorting facility ?

Just thoughts, I have no evidence or strong views either way.

Just amusing myself ruminating over what may be happening in the discussions with Peel and I have no evidence for my thoughts but I just wonder. It's a bit convenient that the Australian "leak" or whatever it was happens just before the exclusivity was due to end. Put this together with the known situation with HUI and it could be saying to Peel " you aren't the only fish in the sea". Indeed it could even create pressure by hinting " How are you going to fulfill all the planning commitments and public claims re Protos if we walk away? What are you going todo with all the non recyclable plastics without our DMG technology?" I wouldn't want to overplay the PHE position but we do have a fair amount of cash in the bank with which we could do some other jv especially as quite a few governments around the world seem prepared to make contributions to improve plastic waste disposal.

I may be wrong of course but a sell off just before the end of the Tax year isn't uncommon. Some of it may well be people getting ready to transfer money to their ISA's and then rebuy. We'll find out next Thursday onwards.

Mentalmax "The dumper" may just be selling a few ready to switch them into their ISA asap. Happens quite a bit at this time of year. Its not me by the way , I'm set up for this already.