Member Info for Boffin

So far this year the rain has been well under normal for much of Namibia. So much so that one of the major agricultural shows may be called off. A bit more rain is forecast for the next month but so far nothing major.

I don't expect the full half year figures to be spectacular ( although happy to be wrong!) . The first Q production numbers were still in recovery and the nargins restricted by the fixes. The 2nd Q should be better but there were still fixes in place and production had only just got back to volume. What would be good though is if we get some forward guidance along with the half year numbers due in the next couple of weeks. We are after all well into Q3 so they should have a good idea of how production is going and some of the lower level fixes have expired helping margins. Plus any news on timescales for Berg Aukas or Central Ops could be really beneficial. I don't expect much on Kitumba as they have already targeted end 2019 for the BFS and there won't be much to add any time soon.

Thats a traded futures or CFD price not the spot price for 25 tonne lots on the metals exchanges. And its the latter that is relevant for WTI (except where they have fixed).

is certainly doing its best to help. Up 6% on the week so far and only $20 short of $7100 as I write

Was meant for WTI

to one of our corporate lawyers ( well like me she's mostly retired but we both were VP's in a large pharma PLC). Her reaction was that "Unless they are certifiable then they had to have numbers in front of them when releasing that RNS that demonstrate it was reasonable for them to believe they could make those payments. If they couldn't do this then in the event of non repayment at the end of Feb they could reasonably be charged with wilful misleading of the market and potential disbarment as directors of LSE listed companies. Not that it often happens but the credibility loss would be huge. OK non predictable "force majeur" issues can intervene between now and then and delay payments but that won't absolve them from needing to be able to show that at the time of releasing the RNS they had to be essentially certain that they were in a position to make the loan repayments as stated. I think the issue behind this is that the BOD are giving us rather incomplete data on volumes, margins and timings of cash receipts which puts a great deal of uncertainty into any predictions we try to make. And uncertainty is never good for confidence or the SP.

As old timers here will know I've been out of this for eighteen months or so. For some reason though, being a somewhat contrary thinker I can't help but wonder if this isn't a good time to get back in. Whilst I don't disagree with many on here re the merits or perhaps that should be de-merits of BM I think they may have finally put a decent engine under the bonnet and it just may get to make some money. As has been pointed out bu others in spite of all the bad press we still have revenues of $120 M and the advertising audit numbers seem to show that Rythm1 is gaining some traction in the market. If they start to turn even a modest profit on that this half year we could see quite a turnaround in sentiment. After ignoring this since I got out I'm going to take a closer interest but will I get back in? Not immediately for sure but lets see what the AGM has to offer.

since I looked in here as I sold out a while ago. Good to see sales have stabilised but either costs or the competitive nature of the market Blinkx is trading in are still hammering the margins and profitability. With the lack of credibility the Blinkx BOD have at the moment its hard to see a real recovery in the SP until we have sight of the actual positive sales and profitability numbers in 6-12 months time - or the excuses for why recovery is still further delayed.

Whilst I'm not a computer software specialist most informed opinion seems to be that these patents are so broad as to be unenforceable in practice. On top of that the market cap of Vertical is about $29 M , if there was a real issue Au could have bought them from petty cash and shut the whole thing up overnight. Thats not the ML style though if he thinks he is on a winner. In which case Vertical could have a very expensive fight on its hands.

They have been talking about, and regularly putting back, "a major US acquisition". The last reason given was that they had identified "an even larger opportunity" which they needed more time to progress. Only a guess but I assume this will be in the billion if not a couple of billion range, plus restructuring costs so the cash on hand may in fact not be enough.

I picked up from the Blinkx board that Autonomy have advertised for telesales staff in the Cambridge newspapers. Not exactly their normal b to b selling model! This has to be for a consumer product of some kind and fits with their consumer "Brand" marketing efforts in sport, F1 cars and a major UK football club etc. Three to six months for recruitment and training before a launch?

An article in todays Times highlights AU's new venture into medical diagnostics using its software to search for patterns in patient data. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/industries/technology/article2809049.ece Also reiterates at the end that AU are due to announce a major US acquisition.

The share price is down because the acquisitions last year were expected to give an even greater boost to turnover than has been seen. OK its not bad and they have quite a pile of cash but a turnover of $500M for the full year is what is wanted. Mike Lynch did hint as much talking about "seasonality" and Autonomy has shown marked quarterly swings before.Could still easily come good in the full year.