RE: EG21 Dec 2023 16:40
Naturally this project is very early stage, and despite the confident geological chances of success of 60-70% per project, and low economic threshold of 38 mmboe, we have applied a cautious 20% risking in calculating our Total NAV. This values the three prospects at US$70m risked, or 5.67p/shr. Our risking allows headroom to add substantial value as the project passes major milestones, such as the securing of drilling finance, successful drilling, project sanction etc. Including assets elsewhere across Europa’s portfolio (onshore UK, Serenity, Inishkea West) we calculate a Core NAV of 3.76p/shr (which includes discovered resources and corporate items only) and a Total NAV (i.e. including exploration) of 15.83p/shr. Reflecting the current state of the equity markets, our Target Price of 4.97p/shr is set at Core NAV, plus just 10% of the (already risked) exploration NAV. Finally it is worth adding a short comment on what will remain the company’s most important asset (for now at least). At the time of the latest announcement, the Wressle field was flowing at rates equivalent to c.205 bopd net to Europa. At current oil prices, we estimate that this will generate in the region of US$3.5-4m of operating cash flow, which more than covers any capital requirements that the company has elsewhere across the portfolio. We estimate that, following the US$3m investment, Europa will still have over US$3m cash remaining on the balance sheet (debt free), implying a current enterprise value of just US$9m today.”