Member Info for BlueWiley

BBH / Rider my view is we can’t assume anything apart from an agreement with Argentina to settle will improve the SP an awful lot and will bury once and for all doubts on the metrics BUR uses for predicting a fair ROI..

About 30m bill payers will receive something if successful - the maths says about c£25 each after Burford collect c£120m (£30m + £90m)

Cont..

Right now, Burford is the only funder with that scale. CEOs, CFOs, and General Counsels like collecting bonuses. If that means giving up some future economics to Burford, which is playing the justice-turns-slowly game, so be it. With these dynamics, I think demand will grow. Ultimately, shareholder returns will come down to Burford's case-selection abilities, which historically have been outstanding. Since inception, only 8% of deployments have gone to adjudication and lost, resulting in a ~85% loss of capital to those line items. In contrast, 73% of deployments reached a settlement returning an average of 58% (23% IRR), and the remaining 19% reached a winning adjudication returning an average of 247% (49% IRR). Time will tell if these high returns continue, but there is a lot of upside potential that is not being priced into shares today. The CEO seems to agree with his recent $5M purchase.

Exciting times ahead … 💥

Burford (BUR) - As the ancient Greeks said, "The wheels of justice turn slowly, but grind exceedingly fine." As a litigation financer, Burford has funded a large portfolio of legal cases that are working their way through the legal process. Their largest "holding" is a judgement against Argentina related to the YPF case, for which Burford is in charge of pursuing the payout. If Burford were to collect the full $6.2B (not including post-judgement interest accruing at ~5% per year), this windfall would be worth $28 per share. To be clear, especially given Argentina's history in cases of this type, it is my expectation that Burford will take a haircut in a negotiated settlement. Interestingly, Burford's CIO Jonothan Molot appears

on the visitor logs for senior Argentinian officials (link)... at least they are talking.

While the YPF judgment is a massive asset for Burford, it is far from the only case that should start gaining more traction in the near term. Despite receiving $242M of proceeds from $135M of pre-2020 vintage deployments in 2023, Burford still has ~$782M of deployments remaining in that vintage that we should start seeing flow through the P&L in the form of realizations as courts are now fully re-opened and cases delayed by the pandemic conclude.

Similar to the inevitable growth of KKR, excluding a change of law limiting litigation finance, I believe that Burford should continue to grow because of corporate manager incentives. They are solving two problems, particularly for public companies. First, legal cases are a drain on current year P&L. Thus, if a CEO or CFO wants to preserve this year's earnings, they can have Burford pay the legal expenses, resulting in "found money?" It is easy to see a CEO hugging the General Counsel and CFO when they tell him/her that they found the money to "save" the year simply by partnering with Burford.

The second problem is that the market does not generally attribute value to pending legal cases, and GAAP accounting does not help. However, if you sell a portion of the potential outcome to Burford for cash, the market does value that. Want to

"strengthen" your balance sheet, at least optically, for the market or lenders? Sell a part of your case to Burford. One Fortune 50 company partnered with Burford last year for a $325M commitment to their case.

I forgot to add that the permission to proceed was granted yesterday ..

https://www.marketscreener.com/news/latest/992-million-UK-lawsuit-against-European-power-cable-groups-gets-go-ahead-46623573/

Hat tip to SommersetLad

Https://www.catribunal.org.uk/sites/cat/files/2024-05/14407722%20Clare%20Mary%20Joan%20Spottiswoode%20CBE%20v%20Nexans%20France%20S.A.S.%20%26%20Others%20-%20Judgment%20%28Collective%20Proceedings%20Order%29%20%203%20May%202024.pdf

This is interesting as it gives an insight to a straight forward risk reward model by Burford. We will find your case but we want our investment back plus 3 x the value of the investment … simples

Section 23

The PCR entered into a financing agreement with BC Investments Ltd ("Burford"), a subsidiary of Burford Capital, dated 20 June 2018 (the "LFA").

The LFA has been varied from time to time to take account of developments in case law on litigation funding.

Pursuant to the LFA as varied, Burford has committed to provide up to an aggregate maximum amount of £30,715,000 to fund the costs of the Collective Proceedings, subject to the Collective Proceedings reaching various procedural stages. That figure includes £10 million of adverse costs cover in addition to after the event insurance cover which the PCR has obtained. In return for its investment in funding the action, if the Collective Proceedings are successful and an award of damages is made to the Class, Burford would be entitled to receive both repayment of all sums invested in the case pursuant to the LFA and an amount equal to three times the capital invested out of the damages and costs awarded to the Class. The payment structure is set out in Schedule 3 to the LFA as varied as follows:

1

"Allocation of Proceeds and Costs Awards

Its certainly getting v interesting… not ypf related but a good find by somersetlad on blue board ref another case.. I’ll start a new post

ExTrader - I like this from your post on blue board.. The Burford Bofffin Boys earning there $ here !!

Kirchner's use of YPF jets - referenced in the submission - whether for personal or 'Government' business could prove to be their undoing.

Another stride forward .. this may push the issue further up Mr Milei list of priorities as I don’t believe anyone including Burford wants to see 51% of YPF seized..

Yep…!

Https://buenosairesherald.com/politics/judiciary/ypf-expropriation-case-burford-requests-argentinas-shares-of-the-company

Mr Marroc as a trusted source of information you’ve made my day 🙏🏻

Approximately $4.5bn… but that was before the news so the value could fall tomorrow.. either way this should be good news for BUR ..

Thanks again Mr Marroc .. more twist & turns in this story than the Singapore Grad Prix

BBH that’s the billion dollar question.. estimates vary from the award adding £10+per share to £20+per share and some say higher… I try to think of it as icing on the cake.. my investment is based upon the business as a whole not just YPF and I expect the SP to be c£40-£60 in 2-3years giving a market of £9bn to £13bn. The current conservative NAV is c£8bn.

Thank you Mr Marroc. Interesting point regarding beneficiaries of Peterson’s award! Basically 12 months from now and this should be settled once a for all but it could be sooner. I can live with that..

Good evening Mr Marroc

Would it surprise you and your team if Mr Milei and his team agreed a deal with Burford in the coming weeks or months?

“In February, the IMF warned Argentina that it needs to address legal issues related to recent court rulings if it wants to regain access to international credit.”