Member Info for bluerill

What, that you manage to chime in out of the blue with a comment that's utterly meaningless but delivered with your signature smug cluelessness at the same time? Yeah baby, plus ca change

now I'm lol-ing.

Yo Trustatrade, here's a suggestion for your first tweet re SLE: after the 6p special dividend, assuming a net price of say, 20p, the company's second biggest shareholder - who just happens to be the operator of OML18 and on whose board our CEO sits - would be able to bid a a nearly 50% premium for the shares in San Leon it does not already own for essentially NOTHING (that's like, for free), using just the cash it is about to receive from the special dividend, the cash on the SLE balance sheet plus the $92m it still owes to san leon by year-end 2021 which of course it would no longer have to pay. Nice starting point for legacy shareholders if Eroton/Midwestern were then to add in a value for sle's 10% economic stake in OML18, which is about to see a 25%+ uplift in revenues (before any new drilling) from the commissioning of its new pipeline/FSO infrastructure in late Spring/early Summer. Right now this is just fun with numbers, but who knows what the future holds? Maths available on request.

please, be our guest

hmmmm, almost a trend. Savannah Pets out with yet another punchy update from a substantial AIM-listed, Nigeria focused hydrocarbon producer

Useful report today from Seplat Pets, the largest UK-listed Nigerian producer after its recent takeover of Eland (engineered by the way, by Eland's largest shareholder. Just sayin'), with earnings coming in a bit rough on the back of a lower oil prices, but mitigated somewhat on industry-low OPEX, which allow it to produce profitably below current oil prices. The latter may well prove a secret sauce for San Leon's post-special divi performance especially with even a small bounce in Brent as we know the Group has similar low-cost production advantages in OML18, which are actually set to improve further with the new conveyance system going live. Seplat also announced a surprise RISE in their expected capital expenditure budget from $100m to $120m, another small, but encouraging data point for the industry in-country.

see now, any and all squirrels who are still out there twitching underneath the rubble of their making, that's what a true 'ramper' (god, what a stupid term that is) looks like. Bless

Wow, measured AND realistic. Steady my heart.....meantime, no one is waiting on the Nigerian government before they get involved in sle. Maybe 18 months ago, but not now. Further efforts from Oisin to promote the shares likewise are neither here nor there, though they're always welcome. Far more useful in that general area in fact would be for the market to get some real research from Cantors, which now seems very possible given sle's robust situation and, as per Mclean's post below, the broker is clearly beginning to 'get it.' That would be worth 20 Fanning press interviews and I think its now increasingly likely. So far, so what. That leaves the final point about the low free float being potentially advantageous for shareholders going forward. Unlike the other points, this one has some potential, though its far from certain whether it will be. To date in fact, the presence of a 70% shareholder, though Tosca has clearly been the silent force behind sle's capital return policy which has irrefutably undergirded the shares 3-year outperformance, has actually been a deterrent for small institutions to build positions as they fear illiquidity. An emerging understanding in the market that this capital return policy is for real however, may just be the trigger necessary to overcome what I consider to be an overly cautious stance on liquidity, and bring in a few decent funds who are even somewhat price insensitive. That scenario, aided by new retail buying attracted by current and future dividends, could well see a very squeezy atmosphere for the share price.

Let me see if I can bring together a variety of threads here, keeping pomposity to a minimum (which will be tough as always):
The shares are indeed as ludicrously cheap as they appear, but rather than try and get too clever about it, the main reason at present is that sle is a now a huge out-performer in the sector at a time of very weak commodity prices so today anyway, there are more sellers/profit takers than there might otherwise be as some use today's announcement as what is often referred to as a 'liquidity event'. There are other factors (I'm sorry PC, but tax is not one of them), but that is by far the dominant reason, boring as it may seem. What's far more important now however, is just how much (even) better an investment is sle now at 23p than it was just last week at 18? Answer: Much. [Don't have time to go into details right now, but - spoiler - the reasons include the cash position of 50m + 100m+ still to come and what the company can and will do with it / the coming updates on operations and particularly the new conveyance system which will not only substantially improve selling yields but reduce as well our per barrel costs / and yes, the coming 6p dividend, the news of which inevitably was going to take a bit of time to reach more sophisticated investors, but who are already starting to show up this afternoon and will continue to over the next few weeks in my view. As ever, the process of narrowing a deep gap between the share price of a small company like San Leon and its intrinsic value is never simple, and in this sector, in these market conditions, it can be a particularly jagged path. However, with continued value-enhancing progress announcements combined with better promotion (remember I said, the sudden blogger interview was no coincidence. I expect to see more of that as well) in order to bring in more medium-to-long term sophisticated investors, I reckon we can smooth out the pathway quite a bit over the next 6 weeks or so. More soon, but remember to think bigger here. With a little help from the oil price, this one has even more potential than one might imagine].

Editor's Notes: 1. PC - there is no reason to 'apologise' to me. I was not offended. I simply (over)reacted to the humble-bragging, which is a pet peeve; 2. honestly guys, this is not 1995. Market makers simply do not operate anywhere near how you imagine anymore. In fact, its likely that all of the relevant pros at the relevant firms did little more than read the RNS this morning, if that, and almost as likely not more than a couple have seen any business in it. Sorry, but San leon is just not big enough to warrant their attention in the way you describe - though I recognise that this is a very common misconception among retail investors - certainly not to the point of them putting on position of any size in the name. Six months from now, with an enterprise value of £1/2billion, now that might be different story.....

'....Anyone think the MMs are a bit short of shares now ?'
No

It is a big number and demonstrates board comfort on short-term future cash flow prospects (otherwise, I'm certain it would have been 1/2 as big. 3p is still a very generous capital return on a 20p share price). Put me at 'pleased, but ambitious for more'. Still, seeing CJ's obvious joy of posting what he reckoned was real 'gotcha' story (fwiw, it isn't) absolutely buried by what's guaranteed to be the biggest (only?) special dividend for an AIM resource share this year and which further demonstrates management's commitment to returning excess capital, was karma of the highest order. A special dividend on a special dividend, if you will.

I am so conflicted!

BS - I think I was a bit unfair in lumping you in with Martay in my last post. I'm sure sooner rather than later I will regret doing this, but there was really nothing in your post this time that deserved such a harsh response and I can see that lately you have tried to be constructive, although you continue to be profoundly naive of the job Oisin is doing and the worth of our stake in OML18. I apologise fwiw

Wait, unlike markets in free-fall, I suddenly have the power of foresight. I see in our future the return of a couple of bitter mediocrities who drop in periodically, share a few inanities mixed with impotent slurs, get themselves ritually humiliated and then slink away like gutless cowards instead of facing their slapdowns like men. Wash, rinse, repeat

Ok, I'll bite. I'm not sure what's more annoying, your utterly unprovable and flaccid humble-brag or your somehow thinking you had to offer an apology for it. But let me put your mind at ease anyway: If you think you had a position of any consequence for the share price in either direction, you didn't. You're welcome.

sorry, are you being ironic?

His? Or yours?

https://zakmir.com/2020/04/16/san-leon-energy-sle-into-the-bargain-basement-zone-sle/

Couldn't have written it better myself. Wait a second, maybe I did..... Nah, if I had written it, there would have had to be sections on Imaginary Counter-Party Risk and the Airing of Historical Grievances including droning on endlessly about stuff like how much the share price has fallen and how some shareholders can't get over it.

Really Martay? You skulk away for like 4 days, hole up with your favourite Intro to Finance textbook, and that is the best you can up with? A 3rd rate re-imagining of a bunch of near-meaningless points that have all already been knocked back (its almost like you want someone to give you a gold star for observing that a company that has loaned money has counter-party risk, but you're too thick to try and understand how that counter-party risk is accounted for) + some mindless re-tweets from a racist avatar? You don't know, you don't know what you don't know and you don't know what it means to know, girlfriend, and I just don't have the energy to keep up the monumental and thankless job of trying to alter that even a little bit.

yeah, nah