Member Info for Bluelight

On the positive side there are alot of derampers popping up today, which to me is always a buy signal. They only post when they are worried about prices bottoming, I use it as a strong contrarion price indicator.

So what fun and games are going on today then, yawn. Top up opportunity by the looks, difficult to resist buying more at this level to be quite honest.

Its worth stressing that the 1st stage of the NHS contract alone is worth roughly the same as the current mcap (406m). Its a crazy low valuation. Lets unlock some of this value shall we, all it needs is some communication from NCYT and we are away. Enough of this silence is golden approach already, we're all waiting for £15 plus.

Not at all, rapid tests are highly inaccurate, and any cases must be confirmed with PCR. They are mutually used, you cant use rapid tests as a yes or no unfortunately due to high levels of false positives. They're the front line triage in effect, and PCR is the surgeon sorting out the problems.

Are we still expecting a comment on phase 2 today or tomorrow? Can't remember what we decided on that over the weekend, wasn't the deadline close of play today?

Initial testing may be cheaper forms as we see being developed, but theres still the need for a high accuracy pcr confirm test. Not to mention the development of infrastructure through the NCYT machines. Asusming those are permenant deals and more going forwards, you have a whole diagnostics industry based around NCYT compatible testing equipment. Its a canny move for the long term.

Unless a vaccine is 100% effective and globally available, anytime anyone gets a cold for the next few years they will need a covid test just to confirm. For me it is a no brainer that testing will be around for years, even higher than it is now. Sentiment moves things day by day, but fundamentally I think that fact is being missed at the moment. Its like in the summer when people thought the lockdown would make it go away, it simply wont. Value will be unlocked here when thats understood.

I added another batch today, anything sub 800 for me is a steal, as that's a 50% upside on my business as usual as it stands target price. Any new contracts or extensions are an extra bonus in my eyes.

I think the higher the number gets the more people ask, really? Show me the actual real number please. I've spoken with lots of colleagues about it and none of them believe it. Lets see the number for the % of people who don't get it, when they are directly exposed to the virus. That number will be much much lower, but wont be mentioned as it doesn't sell vaccines. Anyway, rant over. We all want a vaccine, but I begrudge being misled by the pharmas on the actual protection it offers.

Another interesting point is that even with a vaccine, lets be generous and say 10% of people with the vaccine still get covid. Anyone who gets a cold will still want to be tested whether its a cold or covid as they can't be sure. I certainly would for my family, as you just don't know. So that would put more of an emphasis on cold/flu/covid testing differentiation, which we are the leader in.

Also worth noting that if you love these random % numbers being thrown around by the pharmas, 1 out of the 8 people in the trial with the vaccine got 'severe covid' whilst it was 10 out of 162 in the placebo group. So in percent thats, no vaccine = 6.2% got severe covid, and with the vaccine 12.5% of people got severe covid. So you are twice as likely to get severe covid if you take pfizers vaccine. Love someone to show me the positivity in that....

It's a case of every test result being higher than the last that I dont believe. They know that the one with the best results will be the one in demand, so I don't believe the results that get lifted just to beat the competitors number. I have no belief that what they say and actual reality match, as a large proportion of the population do too I imagine. If something is too good to be true, then it most likely isn't what it seems. Lets see, but I think AZN will be 97%, and thats before I see any data whatsoever...

I see Pfizer increased their number to 95% now, there's a surprise, don't want to be behind your competition. I don't for one second believe these numbers, and quite frankly have so little faith I wouldn't touch that vaccine if you paid me. Its all just a big political con for me

I think regardless, we can all agree you don't put through such a massive expansion in equipment without an agreement in place that they are needed somewhere. I would guess they are needed pretty quickly too given they increased output over 5 fold immediately. I'm excited for the news that will drop, god knows there's many countries and people who can benefit from them.

Someone messing about for now, but undoubtedly we will get such news in the near term

It's interesting looking at our peers such as ODX, GDR, AVCT. Their results have been awful, barely a single sale amongst them. Comments like if all goes well we might sell high single digit millions on this or that deal. We don't even RNS anything less than 100m now. It's just remarkable the earnings here. can't wait to see the numbers, but as we are virtually the only one selling the numbers must be staggering.

@HarChris. In a past life I wrote similar notes on energy. In general the usefulness is hit and miss depending on the specific broker and the quality of their analysis. In general I found the Numis note to be excellently thought out and prepared, and the numbers well devised. That's not to say we will get there for sure of course, but I for one would expect it to get there and further.

Not sure that will continue. though. The upside on cyclicals, and downside on covids is less this time, so you can see markets know what happened last time. Personally I've added more covid to the portfolio, and sold my rolls punt shares on the initial spike.

Cyclicals arent up as much as the first vaccine news, so shows the markets is adapting to it, and treating a bit more with a pinch of salt. Outside chance we close flat today, as we've been here before and know what happens next.

It's getting a bit of a dull pattern now. Vaccine news drop it, bounce back on reality, vaccine news drop it, blah blah. Anyway, loaded up on a range of covids. Been expecting this opportunity.