Member Info for Bluebelly

May be about 5 post are interesting.

I have to say Three of the posts were funny, a big thank you to Kalan's No6 (07:52), UKbbbb's Xmas lunch annoucement (08:32) & NelsontheDog's 3x Ovens that are no good for Turkeys, but we have Goose next year (10:14) - Brilliant, my time here has not been wasted.

The current news void has left JLP SP in limbo, a little dip to activate some trades, followed by a rise to excite the holders, with the usual fall back to current levels, but after all that we are trading where we were Aug & Sep.

One piece of good news & we can re-rate, whilst a poor RNS, we hit 2.5p or a new low.

Still only 5 interesting posts, but thought I'd add my two pennies worth.

BB

We need that update soon.

As the graph shows, since the news came out about the SA business sale.

We are hitting lower highs & lower lows. I guess it'll just be another buying opportunity, last one???

As SeisNav showed us recently, all those commodities are up, we should have bottomed in June.

BB

Did they have problems with Cobalt or was it the price drop? Who knows.

30 Jun 23 RNS: Cobalt refining capacity at Sable refinery remains allocated to copper production. The decision will be reviewed depending on the recovery in cobalt prices.

Does the Sable ROM/Tailings still contain Cobalt?

BB

From Feb 23 RNS:

Sable Refinery holds the ability to pivot production between copper and cobalt metals which, accommodates the staged expansion of the operations while at the same time optimising profitability.

The Sable Refinery will initially maximise cobalt production in the short-term to facilitate the targeted expansion of the Roan copper operations, targeting output of 450 tonnes per month of cobalt hydroxide (125 tonnes of contained cobalt) from recycled waste alone by end May 2023.'

BB

Interesting

If it is $25k/t-$30k/t profit on 50 ton per month. Do we get the full price??

How much copper would we lose running the cobalt circuit.

If copper profits were £4k/t-$6k/t we could make the same profit with the cobalt, even if we lost around 200t of copper/month.

It's probably not that simple, does any one have any ideas.

BB

A bird in the hand etc. Unfortunately, I'm not sure of my average, but I guess its around 5-7p

I think Kalan has shareholder fatigue as many of us do.

Investing over a long period of time, you would expect to see some growth, even against the large dilution. Especially from the expansion we have seen over the last 5 years. We didn't trade below 7p until Aug 23 having risen above it in Nov 20. That was thought to be the floor then, the new floor is 2.5p currently. A SP @ 5-6p in the bank looks good right now.

BB

That's exactly where we are Kalan.

There's always downside, but we do have the financial support for the next few years, if the sale goes through as planned and payments are made.

Upside could be huge.

'The Company has an internal target date of end-October to finalise these discussions.' Mining Partner.

Hopefully, they are finalising those discussions now and are looking at putting pen to paper very soon. A positive RNS

End of November we are due the Annual Report for 2025, that may be viewed negatively. Unless they can throw out some positive figures for the post reporting period.

BB

For the last three or four years, we have been expecting a reversal of the longterm down trend.

The elastic bands have been wound tighter & tighter over that period, with many snapping after an RNS update/change of tack/ignoring failure.

Are we finally approaching that reversal?

Looking at SeisNav charts, we should have reversed already.

Are Investors waiting on the sidelines to see an actual RNS that confirms Zambia is working?

Yes we are under valued, but we need to start producing more copper and may be colbalt. Then the annual payments from the sale can be re-invested, if not they'll be swallowed up in overheads. Those overheads should now be reduced substantially with just one juristiction & reduced management team.

BB

Lets say he sold them around 5-7p & bought back around 3-4p, he's done well.

I must remember to follow his lead, sell high, buy low.

bottomsup & nevertogiveup, keep that positivity coming.

I think we need to keep away from: 'buy suitable high grade ROM ore from 3rd party'.

We've been tere & done that & have the scars to prove it!

Let us hope we've seen the bottom this week & those positive RNS will start to flow.

BB

Although we've gone from a 2m tonnes/pa chrome processing operation with 44000oz PGM production & 3000t of copper production, to a 5kt copper production,(hopefully, weather & power dependant). This could be why the price has been driven down?

On the other hand.

We have £66m in cash from the sale, (coming in over 5 years). We are expecting to achieve 5kt copper production. We have all the infrastructure required to increase that significantly (apparantly??) We are not looking to raise money through equity issues. The market values that at £80m

We are currently priced as a junior minor progressing with exploration licenses.

If JLP spends the cash from the sale, annually & there is no improvement, then we are looking at failure. Fortunately that is already priced in. What would we get from an asset sale at this present time? Also our Cobalt circuit could be coming into play!

BB

Thanks Gotreal, I've looked at the AR as opposed to the 'Fundementals' tab on here.

The AR states the intangibles are valued at $106.65m.

From Google - 'Intangible assets are non-physical assets that provide long-term value to a business, such as patents, copyrights, trademarks, brand recognition, and goodwill.'

How much of the Intangible value remains, as the IP for the SA business will no longer be ours 'The Jubilee way'?

BB

Shuvlin: Can't think of many companies where that is the case Bluebelly. 5p just about covers NAV.

We need to see this years Annual Report to confirm that. It would be good to see the SA & Zambia assets valued seperately, where possible.

We could then see if $145m for SA was enough, if it was below the NAV for SA then the 2024 report would need to be lowered.

From Annual Statement Jun 24: Net Asset Value per Share = $0.05 0r approx £0.037

BB

I'm not on here to knock other posters, HarmProf. I'm here to gain knowledge of the share I chose to invest in.

Although the RNS's give us information, they often end up causing more confusion.

I find SeisNav's posts to be very imformative, along with a few others.

We started the year at a low of 3.8p and most hoped we could easily get 100% rise to 7-8p to give fair value on what we new.

We are now looking at a 200% rise to hit 7.5p, unfortunately we now know that is above fair value.

I think Kalan mentioned fair value is currently around 4-5p if we are on targets with Copper production. Are we on target????

I'm not here to drive the SP down. If someone invests today they could get 100-200% (5-7.5p) profit, whether it £1k or £30k. Myself as a long term holder may be able to break even or get 50% profit at 5p -7.5p.

BB

It should give plenty of time to get funds together, unless a game changing RNS pops up.

Not much ISA allowance left, but may sell NS&I's PB's to put in trading account short term.

I've already gone above the 1m shares limit I imposed on mysel.( because I am weak!!!)

To Buy or not to Buy??

BB

Plat drop is currently 8.35%

SLP drop is 5.33%

JLP drop is 9.3%

Yet we never climbed with the PGM's rise.

It always to late when you realise you've backed a dud.

Or is this the point of capitulation, that many may regret selling in, in 6 months time (like myself in April 20).

I'm staying this time, Sh*t or bust!

BB

I am concerned why the Financial Results for this year have not been released.

Are they now having to adjust the figures to hand to fit in with the statements of why we need to offload the SA business. The FD should be filling in spreadsheets etc as he would for any other year. We are now looking at a six to eight week delay, that has also pushed back the Q1 26 report.

This is helping in the destruction of the SP.

Let's hope it all above board.

The mining company touted as a possible option, with ex-Jubilee management, doesn't look great. Using the same people who used to tell you what/where to dig.

BB

Also SeisNav, thanks for the graphs. It's good to see the disconnect of the SP wrt the commodity prices. Should we see success in our three projects, then we will all be in a better place.

On the day of notification, we closed @4p with a high of 4.5p, mid 4.25p. We currently need a greater than 50% rise to recover. Along with those commodity increases since June 25, where would we have been trading now?

BB

From New Year 2026, we need to produce enough copper to cover our OPEX,debt & Admin/Company Cost.

CAPEX should be covered by the sale of SA business & the other sales.

Cobalt would be great to add to our commodities, but it looks like we will be relying solely on copper. Hopefully the FY25 results will split the finances so we can get a rough estimate on our current cost for just Zambia.

What we need now is a large ROI, as currently we're priced to fail.

BB

From July 2015 we have had a couple of excursions below this level. March 2020 covid lock down, being one, understandably. What is happening now?

We are still waiting for a TRI from the 83m trade on Thursday. That sell for £2m@2.85p has saved them over £200k.

It must be another buying opportunity!

BB