RE: Next stop 20p13 Feb 2023 13:20
The smart money knows that there will never be profit in shipbuilding in the UK. The smart money invested here for the Islandmagee project. Given his usual stance is extremely bullish (add a "t" and you have an anagram!), JW's recent comment that he was "reasonably confident" about a positive outcome at the judicial review is hardly cause for optimism, in fact quite the reverse. Immediately after, we have the smart money exiting stage-left.
The FSS contract is between the MoD and Navantia. HARL is merely a sub-contractor. Of course, assurances will have been made about the number of jobs secured for the UK, but politicians are stupid and easily hoodwinked, especially when it comes to such a hot potato as Northern Ireland - anyone remember DeLorean? A number of MPs are expressing concern at the true number of UK jobs that will be assured by the FSS contract, almost as if they expect HARL to fail. Given that Navantia is owned by the Spanish government, do you think that they would prefer those jobs to be a) in the UK or b) in Spain, especially given the post-Brexit cold shoulder? HARL goes bust, contract with Navantia has progressed, vessels get built in Spain - ay caramba! Speaking of jobs, at the announcement of preferred bidder status in November, HARL spoke of 2000 apprenticeships and graduate positions. This number mysteriously dropped to 1000 in January, how many will be the reality?
I have always maintained, and continue to maintain, that HARL will never build a ship; or rather, the entity in which we (most of us) currently hold an interest will never build a ship. The era of cheap money and cheap debt is over; HARL's current debt profile is crushing and there is still no news of an improved facility. If a company's profits cannot keep ahead of its debt payments, it will die. No ifs, no buts, it dies.
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