arcm shorting strategy11 Dec 2019 21:46
If we accept at face value (and ignore for the moment the non disclosure issue) that arcm have shorted pmo shares to hedge their loan as they have stated , it follows they do not expect pmo to fail, rather its an insurance policy in the event they default on their loan repayments. So unlike traditional hedge funds such as white box, their primary interest is in getting their money back plus agreed interest through loan repayments.
That being the case one would have thought that as soon as it becomes clear pmo will make good on their loan repayments then arcm will eliminate or reduce their short position as this itself also presents a risk for them.
So, if we are all sure about pmo's improving fundamentals and liquidity (cash flows) then we ought not to be concerned too much about a arcm' s short position. It's just a case of time before it unwinds and when it does the sp will be re rated to where it needs to be ie significantly higher than now.
Its also worth noting the traditional shorters are reducing their positions so this is evidence of improving sentiment.
Comments and observations welcome.