Member Info for blackgold00

" It is time to know if the project is viable or not"

i think it would suit Aminex if they decided it was only viable being processed at sea on LNG processing ships next to gas fields. like i've said before if the off-shore gas (of which there's 40 trillion cf) is piped ashore then some could be made available as natural gas for TPDC use, and Ntorya gas will become less valuable. i have a feeling it will end up being processed at sea, i'm pretty sure that is what Shell would like, but at least the talks will be on again.

i think all eyes are on the year end results, due end of April, hopefuly with news of license extension, and this i'm sure will determine direction of share price

well, this forum consisting of just me and Crusty doesn't bear thinking about. lol : )

fjones40, i have tried to register with laptop, but keeps asking for mob number, is there a way without mobile phone ?

well like I've stressed before, the granting of this license extension is nothing like the last, there is no general PSA review, no work-program or indeed area to be rescinded to be negotiated, in fact the work-program of the new license over the (Ntorya Location area) has been established and designed for one thing, to get the area developed. ASAP

from H/Y results
" The 1-year licence extension was received during April 2020, which reduced the size of the Mtwara licence to the same area as the Ntorya location area. Further 1-year licence extensions can be sought to allow the Company to finalise operations and to collect data required for the submission of the Development Plan. "

from RNS (Ruvuma Licence Extension Granted)

WORK PROGRAM
· Acquire 200 square kilometres (surface coverage) of 3D seismic (min. expenditure of US$7 million)

· Drill the Chikumbi-1 exploration well (min. expenditure of US$15 million)

· Complete the negotiation of the Gas Terms for the Ruvuma PSA with the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation

· Using the data gathered from Chikumbi-1 and the seismic acquisition, prepare and submit an application for a Development Licence for the Ntorya Location area.

" but you will surely understand my scepticism after so many previous disappointment"

yes Crusty, i think for some, (given the history) there is real doubt out there that the license extension will not be granted on time to enable the 3D/CH-1 to proceed as planed, (a big disappointment) conversely, if the extension is announced as hoped, all doubts will then be lifted and i would hope along with the share price. : )

Crusty "Tell me Frank what do you think will happen to the sp if we do not have official notification of a license extension in 3 or 4 weeks time? I think the sp will take a dip. Am I wrong to point that out?"

No Crusty, you are not wrong to point to point that out

Crusty "So to spell it out to nice simple terms for you Frank; I couldn't manipulate the sp even if I wanted to but, if there is a delay in the License Extension, I won't even need to. So I will keeping my powder dry for now"

Well, that is entirely your decision to make, but i might point out, that the opposite could also be true, in that, if the License Extension is granted in the coming weeks, confirming the (3D seismic/CH-1 drill work-program) will/is happening, the share price could well be in for another sudden bounce, reducing and making any dry powder much less effective. like i say its our choice how we play the game. : )

"BG you still seem to have missed one crucial point; the offshore gas is bloody expensive to produce - the TPDC certainly won't be buying that at Kiliwani prices of US$3.00 per mmbtu"

O dear Crusty, of you go again, nobody missed a crucial point, on the contrary your hot headedness seems to have misunderstood my post.

sorry Crusty but it was you that said assumed, and if i recall correctly, it was stated or should i say assumed by a CEO or someone of high rank of one of the big companies involved, some years back now. and yes i agree it is immaterial in comparison to Ntorya's development in the coming years.

yes i'm sure that has been assumed by some, but the thing is, if they do bring or pipe the off-shore gas ashore to be processed at Lindi, and not on LNG processing ships, (which we know Shell would like to, as its easer and cheaper) then there would be no physical barriers (if it was part of the deal/agreements between Gov and Shell) to pipe some of the off-shore gas once on land, into the national gas infrastructure, which i'm sure the Tanzy Gov would like to get a share of it if they could. anyway, time will tell, but one thing is for sure its going to be a difficult expensive project to get the off-shore gas to on-shore Lindi.

"According to Shell, The offshore deepwater gas in the south of Tanzania is located in fields over 100km offshore, and some are in water that is up to 2,500m deep and 2,500m below seabed. Distance between the fields can also be over 100km apart. Depth, distance and terrain means the Tanzania LNG project is at the cutting edge of deep sea exploration technology and provides a unique opportunity for developing unique competencies and capabilities in the local supply chain and within TPDC as the project tackles these technical obstacles."

the question for me is, will some of the gas from the large off-shore fields be also destined for the domestics natural gas market, and not be processed into LNG, i know it would be 7 plus years maybe more away with lots negotiations, but there could be then, an abundance of natural gas that could well change the market structure and the present gas players APT, M&P Orca. dominance.

Total states, they expect oil production through pipeline to commence in early 2025, and its my understanding a lot of gas will be needed to produce the electric to continually heat the full length of the pipe-line to keep the oil flowing, so are they planning to use Nyorya gas? and is this the date, the same time-line that we got from the last (Ruvuma Operations Update)
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AEX/ruvuma-operations-update-c2wajaozxt4q3ye.html
" Assuming a successful outcome with the forthcoming Chikumbi-1 well, first gas from the project is anticipated to occur in September 2024"

(Uganda, Tanzania, oil firms sign accords to build $3.5 billion pipeline)
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-uganda-pipeline-tanzania/uganda-tanzania-oil-firms-sign-accords-to-build-35-billion-pipeline-idUSKBN2BY0CX
"The planned East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), with a length of 1,445 kilometres (898 miles), will run from the oilfields to Tanzania’s Indian Ocean seaport of Tanga.
Uganda’s crude is highly viscous, which means it needs to be heated to be kept liquid enough to flow.
Total has said EACOP could potentially be the longest electrically heated crude oil pipeline in the world.
“It’s a very large project, one of the largest we should develop on this continent,” Total’s CEO, Patrick Pouyanné said, adding they expected oil production to commence in early 2025."

“This pipeline project can be a core of bigger deployments,” said Museveni, adding investors could use the EACOP land corridor to put up another pipeline to ship gas from Tanzania and Mozambique to consumers in Uganda, Rwanda, Congo and other countries in the region.

897-mile ("the world’s longest heated oil pipeline") and as i understand it, they have waxy oil so they need to heat it to move it through the pipeline, not sure at what temp, but no doubt by electric and electric generated by gas, So i'm wondering how much gas would be needed ?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/uganda-tanzania-agree-to-build-long-heated-oil-pipeline/2020/09/13/a158b49e-f5da-11ea-85f7-5941188a98cd_story.html

Abdulsamad Abdulrahim
@abdulsamadz
·
21h
Tanzania Gas pipeline project to Uganda is on Bilateral and will happen. Only matter of time and surely will be in parallel

Jules
@SherwoodJ8
·
Apr 9
Replying to
@abdulsamadz

@KagutaMuseveni
and 9 others
A great milestone indeed. I hope this brings prosperity to Tanzania. Is there any news of the gas pipeline that is planned to sit alongside the oil one - to carry gas from Tanzania to Uganda?

https://twitter.com/abdulsamadz/status/1380448135802146820

Abdulsamad Abdulrahim
@abdulsamadz
"Tanzania is off to Entebe for the signing of the UG-TZ $3.5 billion Investment deal. This is a great milestone to Tanzanians & Ugandans. We should unite and work together for the betterment of our people. The journey that started back in 2014 is finally taking off! #Hapakazitu !"

yes highland, though the Cost Reduction recently announced will help in that regard, but given the level of G/A expenses compared to the potential future earnings/value of the Ntorya asset, i think maybe, now a more balanced perspective of Aminex's risk and reward is taking place.
Lets not forget Aminex has $35 million invested in the Ntorya development that could be producing in 3 years time, so i'm pretty sure any limited financial shortcomings will be overcome.

Further Cost Reduction
"In 2021, the Company intends to reduce gross general and administrative costs by 30% from 2020 levels and an additional 25-30% reduction in 2022. By 2022, these efforts will reduce gross general and administrative expenditure (before one-off costs and exceptional items) to less than £1 million per annum,"

Board Restructuring
"The Company is reducing the Board from five directors to three. With immediate effect"

I suppose, if there is some apprehension in the market regarding the license extension, as expressed by some, then i would suggest that on the (extension confirmation) any apprehension that currently exists will be dispelled, and then with the 3D seismic/CH-1 programs being assured, i would expect to see a marked firming in the share price, reflecting a more positive sentiment that things are on track for the 3D and the CH-1 spud in 9 months time. the FINAL RESULTS are out end of April so hopefully news by then : )

the license that they now hold, does not cover the same area as the old PSA, and it's design does not have the same aims, for this license is specific in the design of the work-program, and that is to bring the (Ntorya Location area) into production.

http://admin.aminex-plc.com/uploadfiles/Aminex%20PLC%202020%20Half-Yearly%20Financial%20Report.pdf
from the last H/Y report
" The 1-year licence extension was received during April 2020, which reduced the size of the Mtwara licence to the same area as the Ntorya location area. Further 1-year licence extensions can be sought to allow the Company to finalise operations
and to collect data required for the submission of the Development Plan."

"Under the terms of the Mtwara licence extension, the Company, through the Ruvuma PSA Joint Venture, is
committed to acquire 200 square kilometres (surface coverage) of 3D seismic, drill the Chikumbi-1 exploration
well, complete the negotiation of the Gas Terms for the Ruvuma PSA with the TPDC and using the data gathered
from Chikumbi-1 and the seismic acquisition, prepare and submit an application for a Development Licence for
the Ntorya Location area. It is acknowledged by all parties that the full work programme is unlikely to be
completed during this extension period and the Company will therefore apply for an additional extension(s) as
necessary and as permissible under the current legislation."

not much longer i think for a little tick up