Member Info for blackelv

I agree DanBrown. We need to have a clear concise production profile from each zone across all formations to acurately extrapolate depletion curves and well recharge rates. If we wanted to go back up the welland do extended testing on the Eldari A zones then a plug would have to be set between 15 and 19. Hopefully we will have some detail on the next steps soon. With regards to UD2 - we can only assume they did not encounter the cement problems until they attempted to go after it with the bigger frac and proppent. If you imagine tapping an old set cement block with a toffee hammer what hammens - nothing! Because you dont exert enough force to damage it. If in the ither hand you use a sledge hammer......... well, look at the feedback regerence UD2 cement failure!!!

Yes mate you are correct. This looks like we are trying to prove up as much oil as possible, during this program. We will not be far off reserves certification, and NSA will have a lot more data to feed into there modelling software come the end of Q3 this year. We will hopefully be in a position where we have reserves as an asset on the balance sheet!!!!!!

Tenners i will get back in my box lol! I stand corrected.

HAHA! i missed that in todays RNS!! was too busy concentrating on the upper portions details. Anyone know when they were zones drilled and tested?

My apologies Tenner. what RNS is that in? can't recall seeing that one (have not read every historical RNS since i invested)

Well UD2 being abandoned is a disappointment, however the age of this well can not be over stated. In the old soviet days they were not interested in the gas here, hence the really heavy MUD that was used and the penetration damage that was done to the gas zones. We have historically seen on other wells that a sidetrack or re-drill brings better results due to the more modern drilling techniques available as technology has improved. What would we rather, that we pushed it further and caused a major incident and uncontrolled release??? Frontera would not survive something of that magnitude so we have to do things properly.

The flow rates stated were disappointing, but we need to remember the penetration damage into these zones from the heavy mud that was historically used. The gas DID flow and it is of great quality and dry which, providing a re-drill of these horizons can increase the flow rates to commercial levels then the production train for distribution will not be too complicated.

I am a glass half full kind of guy, We failed this time with UD2 rework, or should i say the historical drilling/completion techniques and engineering have failed us, but have we gained invaluable data, all of which adds up to increased understanding of the geology and drilling efficiencies going forward.

Zaza did state WE would not be drilling any more wells going forward....... What about someone else drilling some wells on our behalf with the option of a farm in at the end.......

Your getting a little ahead of yourself lol! we have produced from zones 9, 14, 15 and 19 so far this campaign. 13 is still an unknown and we have not yet poked the further zones 20, 23 and 25 in the Gareji B yet.

When we do, we should most definitely be looking at updating the CPR. The Eldari A zones should be fairly straightforward to add to a reserves certification as the production profiles will be well understood and the production development will not be too complicated. By that i mean it can be modular and added onto as more wells come on stream. The highly charged gas zones will require a little bit more work to create development plans to achieve reserve status (balance of commercial costs to recovery), but those further zones in Eldari B will more than likely be upgraded from prospective resources to contingent resources.

So after these three wells are completed and put into production, we could be looking at Eldari A proven reserves of over 100 million barrels of oil (plus zone 13) and Eldari B contingent resources of of over 50 million barrels (plus the gas).

Things are looking very rosy on the Tarabani oil front!

mole - i do not have a clue tbh! this will be a very complicated field to develop due to the differing zones within Eldari A, B and the Gareji at Tarabani. I know that you can use submersible pumps for stacked well production, but not sure of the physics behind it and never been involved in something like this.

Any well engineers on the board????

no chance prodigy. It will go towards increasing the COS in this part of the MK field, but we have not yet proven the production concept that unlocks the potential.

Well this looks very exciting. 14.8 million barrels recoverable from this zone (not included in the WHI Tarabani valuation) and also associated wet gas is present (which as stated earlier is higher in NGL's therefore has a little less methane content) These natural gas liquids do command a premium price and are sought after. Wet gas will bring some higher process costs due to the requirement to remove moisture content and retention time to separate out all the liquids, and also introduce additional hazards in the process train due to hydrates (especially in the harsh winters of Georgia) But it is all manageable with the correct process design. The scaled up production profile of multiple wells will make the gas a viable option in the future, but will require some very complicated field development to monetise this zone. We cannot just produce this zone and flare or vent that quantity of gas as it is just too much and would never be allowed by the Georgian government.

Hopefully a further drill deeper into zones 20, 23 and 25 will yield similar flow rates, discover more gas and co-mingled flow along with zone 19 will produce higher gas flow rates to justify the development of the Eldari B. Although i would hazard a guess that if we went this deep we would be as well testing the Gareji (3.2 TCF) below the Eldari B formation, for further proof of concept. I think this should be the next step in our Tarabani exploration and testing once we have reworked a few more of these older wells.

Will post my thoughts later as i am on a training course. Everything looking good here! (and yes that includes UD2). Not to mention the proven flow of oil and associated gas from the new zone 19 (reserve certification and booked reserves for finance in the near term possibly???). Good job Zaza and the team.

The silence is most definitely deafening here. Lots of work ongoing and nothing negative discovered so far during this work program.

A little tweet may go a long way to build a bit of support at current levels, and more importantly stop peoples heart rates hitting the roof! Still holding for gold here. CMON Zaza, unleash the beasts and tell us what we have here!!!!!!

Evening all. I can understand everyones frustrations here but try and remember why you invested here in the first place. We have an ongoing work programme that has had NO bad news yet, in fact only positive news has been communicated so far! The oil flowed from Tarabani in good quantities, in line with company expectations which means that we have found the key to unlocking and monetising it. Confirmation of this requires extended testing of multiple horizons to establish depletion curves and recharge rates. Once these are learned then we are looking at a reserve certification in the not to distant future, and the availability of reserve based lending. Aswell as this, we start becoming an attractive proposition for reserve hungry majors who are looking to gain a foothold in new territory which is relatively virgin at the moment. I suggest everyone calms down and waits for the final results, imo when they arrive, we will have a flurry of news and the PR machine will be jumpstarted back into action. If news is positive (and there is nothing so far to suggest the contrary) then the AIM and O&G herd will arrive and sentiment will be toppled on its head, and the share price will multi bag from here. Keep the faith and hold the line. Each day is a day closer to finding out if i have F@£$%D up royally or made the best informed decision of my relatively short investment life!!!

Im in! would be good to meet some of you guys.

Seems everyone is a little on edge at the moment. I suggest we all sit and have a think about how much has been acheived since the end of last year. Not one single piece of negative news has been delivered about this oil work program (except from that fundraise earlier in the year), in fact everything looks very promising so far. All wells drilled safely, on time and displaying better porosity/permeability/gas ratio than expected, aswell as an additional zone 13 to consider. What we have not yet done is prove COMPLETE flow results for each well. This is what the market wants. They want comingled zone production over a longer duration test, to more accurately predict well behaviour and future performance. Not long to wait for this now. On the gas - this is a strange one, the can has been kicked down the road a few times with this already (frustrating as thats why i originally looked into This share). Now what i would say is that you dont flow test and flare wells over long periods of time for nothing. FRR and third parties want exact flowrates across varying choke sizes along with pressure build up tests to build accurate models of what we have in these gas horizons at MK. The silence on news tells me that they have bigger fish to fry atm. And may have told by YJ or a third prty to calm the newsflow a bit as too much was being shared in the public domain. IMO all is extremely good here. Keep the faith and watch it rise over the coming weeks. Ps excuse the grammer and spelling - on a train on my phone lol!!!!

Well I have just bought another couple of million shares in my SIPP before takeoff (although I have been stuck on the runway for six months now) Its my belief, along with others that there is some sort of transfer going on behind the scenes and a lot of funding information will be revealed in the next couple of months. I have not bee privy to the 'photos' on Facebook that everyone was getting excited about, but would suggest that if majors are now feet on the ground in B12 (as has been suggested with statements on here) then Zaza is quite far down the road of persuading a JV partner. I think a lot is going to fall into place with regards to FRR very soon. keep the faith. On YA arrangement - it looks good to me and leaves us open to get rid of them, if we receive a lump of cash for either a buyout or JV.

The development model on the presentations is based on us going alone at Tarabani in a natural self funding way. The five wells next year are part of that plan to self fund. The fund raise announced yesterday shows that Zaza can be dynamic in the funding of an accelerated approach. Iwould not be against a farm out similer to the one announced yesterday of say, ten wells to help move things along. Unless of course debt finance is available - in that case lets get a handful of rigs booked up for next year, start this snowball effect with big KICK and let the monster roll! That route will bring a higher volume of oil to the market a lot quicker and allow progression elsewhere on block 12!l with the profit!!!!!!!!

As usual, totally on the money Mole. Its all about timing, testing and geology knowledge to get the best returns on our assets. I think this extended testing of UD2 is for a reason, and that reason is to build on the proven data set we have of the gas in this area of the field. A snapshot short duration well test is not sufficient - we need extended well tests and reservoir recharge rates to ensure we know each horizons production profile and potential. I would not be surprised to see a farm in, in the near future for the gas around UD2(not a major yet). This would be for a smaller percentage of these prospective resources in exchange for funding (similer to that of SOU with Schlumberger) of a detailed seismic program and possibly another exploration well or re-working of older wells. FRR at the moment are a far way off from realising this gas asset, as they dont have the expertise, knowledge and money to develop it! This gas field (if resources are upgraded to reserves in the future) will require a major or a consortium of majors to bring to fruition. BUT not until we prove it to be exploitable in large enough volumes to justify a Majors investment. If it is gradual company growth and personal wealth creation you are after, then get your tin hat on for a few years while we accelerate and expand the field development plan for Tarabani, and start making serious money for re-investment. If its immediate returns via trading the share price increase then take your positions over the next month or two. All IMO of course.

and it is not too far away now IMO. We will soon find our shareprice at many multiples of where we are. These figures are back of a fag packet calculations as i dont have time to punch them all into spreadsheet. And could improve with increased recoverable resources from additional zone 13. Worth bearing in mind that if we get these current resources upgraded to reserves then it opens up a whole lot of funding options for us going forward, and possibly allows us to borrow money from the market against booked reserves and go it alone to realize even gretaer returns on ou asset. None of this is intended as investment advice! Just read the data that is out there and have a look at what Zaza has acheived so far in only the past 9 to 12 months.

Been busy recently with a family holiday sandwiched between some busy work periods so not had the chance to comment in the last few weeks, but have been reading. The positive work both on the ground and behind the scenes continues, this is very encouraging as it shows Zaza has the ability and data to present to potential investors and gain funding in a non-dilutive way. We need to remember we have not even completed the drilling, stimulation and testing program for Tarabani, yet someone has agreed to fund a well on the data sets recovered so far. Tis is hugely encouraging and a bit of a light bulb moment if you do the math�s. Remember that each well will produce 520,000 barrels in 10 years (projected (page 14 of slideshow from the presentation at the shareholders meeting) but not including zone 13 Lets look at a breakdown of this deal for NIKO USD 3 million funded so say the well produces 400 bopd in line with expectation, that�s 240 bopd to this II initially, and 160 bopd for us. So 240 bopd x ( $70 (barrel of oil) � minus $12 (opex)) equals $13,920 per day towards paying of the well cost or 216 days. And also 216 days of us receiving money for our share ( which will be roughly $2million up to that point in year one) It then reverts to the II getting 30% ongoing. Now using 70 usd per barrel of oil � 12 usd opex we will make usd 30.16 million over the ten years of the producing well, If we take that funding amount away we make $30.1 million - $3 million which gives us $27.1 million split 30/70% in our favour. This equals $18.7 million to us over the ten years and $8.13 million to the II( not including the GOGC split of course) This is an unbelievable deal for us in the early days of getting this field into development. This income split will continue until all money spent on Block twelve is recovered, then we revert to the 50/50 split with the GOGC If we decided to fund the full Tarabani field this way including the GOGC split of 49/51%........ WAIT FOR IT!!!!!!!! NOTE: That would be 250 wells at $3 million so $750 million + the $400 million already spent to be recovered before tax which equates to $1.15 billion before taxes due. Excluding these recoverable costs and after payback of initial costs for the II: 250 wells with the following economics: $30.1 million split PER WELL is GOGC = $15.35 million and $14.75 million to us and the II, our split is $10.3 million profit per well over the ten years, the II gets $4.4 million over ten years. AFTER all GOGC COSTS and operational costs assuming $70 per barrel oil, that equals $2.575 Billion profit for FRR over the ten year period AND THIS IS JUST FOR THE TARABANI FIELD OIL!!!!!!!!!!! THIS IS FRICKIN UNBELIEVABLE!!! And as a final note, this is a very good deal for the II as they will make over $1 Billion in profit plus initial investment back. Why has the share price not reacted favourably? Who knows! but it will come, and it i