Sapan Gai, CCO at Sovereign Metals, discusses their superior graphite test results. Watch the video here.
at least he did buy some shares, so this is a good but in terms of volume little sign. i can not imagine that the ceo was lying at the time. he is clever enough to know that this would get him in serious trouble. first of all legally if things go really wrong and secondly his career will be over and i have the feeling he still needs to work for money..... there is zero room for mistakes anymore in communication from them, they should take the lessons from warren buffet at heart. tell bad news immediatly. i wrote before that things will first get much worse after you start a turnaround, progress is made out of sight and always takes longer. running a business that is sound already is about solving **** all day, doing a turnaround is very very challenging but it is actually very simple for me , at 4 pounds this is worth taking a calculated risk compared to the potential value to be unlocked in coming years. but it has to fit your investing style and patience.. i am reading this board to learn about the news fast but it amazes me a bit that people hate themselvces for buying this business. investing and capitalism is brutal, face it and invest with money you can afford to lose. i am in it for the uptick after the turnaround, if it never gets there i admit i made a mistake and move on.
Agree, can go lower again on sentiment / fear and technically one more big push down before we go up long term if H2 conditions are proof of new momentum up businesswise and debt is manageble as CEO stated. Does anybody know here if CEO and CFO are allowed to communicate on buying themselves shares in this period? I wrote it before here, skin in the game now is ultimate proof of aligned interest with us investors.
Fully agree. I read most of the transcripts of calls companies I invest in (long ASOS and under water now 2 pounds) and it never dissapoints me when analyst ask for the same kind of questions, the word I most dislike is something like this : Can you give me some colour on when you this or that etc etc.....Anyway, street prices have zero value so I just skip them. You can not trust them, the incentives are different. Impossible to find value in it, same for TA talks and all these clever people with their average at 3,9 pounds suddenly.You can buy fro TEV of 1,2 B a business with 25 M customers, strong brand topshop, warehouses full with inventory , fashion expertise of niche 16-35 year old doing Billions, ecommerce DNA, deeply hungry staff who want to turn the tide and competition having same headwinds ,. Suppose it drops to 3-3,5 B as they kick out the losing customers nobody wants and you move on with customers your want they have a serious opportunity to make FCF levels that will make this easily a 4-5 bagger. Ofcourse they will never have a strong moat like Google, ASML or Coca Cola but this is special opportunity investing case with a risk reward that I like. Ciao
I watched the presentation. It was clear upfront that results would be bad but this share price action suggest that online giant Asos has no future. I find that hard to believe because they still have serious brand power, 4 B annual sales , substantail marketshare in their niche and 25 million customers. Turnaround are always nasty but it " only " takes ASOS to go to the mean of their margins to create a basis for the next steps. The strategy/diagnoses the CEO explained is clear, it takes pain but i am confident they will fix it. During the presenation I was mostly unimpressed by the CFO Katy, she read a powerpoint like a deer in front of my Range Rover. What I would love to see is the new interim CFO to put his balls on the table and become the new CFO with a bonus to fix the issues in line with my interest. Same for the CEO, who could by the way announce he would buy serious volumes of stock. Suppose they dilute shares to raise equity this is not at all the end of the world, they come from 83 M in 2013 to currently 99,7 M meanwhile growing sales from 770 M to 4 B. If you want to fix a serious problem of strategic design of the company of Asos once you start identifying the bottlenecks the next thing is it always becomes worse first (nothing new, classic pattern), changes in the beginning do not pay off. Progress takes time and is not seen for outsiders, and espcially not for analysts for who most businesspeople feel disdain with their liniair short term next Q3 questions. So for my it is a risky bet but acceptable, so my thanks to the short sellers for creating this bet. If I am wrong so be it.
Markets are a voting machine, investing is a weighing machine. Long term Asos will be fine unless you believe the turnaround will fail, I do not and think at 5,6 pounds the risk reward is ok. They are rightfully being punished for a business model that focused at growth at all costs. Like so much other tech ecommerce business in 2021/2022. In this new arena of economic and macro conditions they need to focus. A CEO who addresses a painfull diagnoses, communicates on the guidelines of the strategy and talks about 140 actions coherent with the guidelines is doing that part correctly. Is that easy? No ofcourse not! Does it take time? Yes. Do they have this time? I think enough to fix it and then we move on to growth of sales and FCF. I do not care if they lose 6 % customers who do not create value for me as an owner, that is what I want the CEO to do. Competition is having the same headwinds, fashionshops in the street face even bigger headwinds as their business model is more expensive and for the niche of ASOS less relevant. If you believe like me that ASOS will stay on top/improve of their niche and will get the ROIC back to "normal" levels without diluting shares we are ready to do back to 20-30 pounds in 3 years. But you need to believe in the turnaround and delayed gratification.
This will take some time, risks are very high but rewards also. Leadership needs to show proof next months they can deliver the turnaround and stay liquid during these difficult times and do not need to raise capital. Been last week in UK as outsider, visited london and country sites also to see some business and factories. Cost of living increase is mega in UK and worse compared to EU, tube is 6,7 pounds with checks all the place to catch freeriders. Food / Hamburger in a pub 15 pounds. Roads are in terrible condition and full with litter. Discounts chains packed with people . So sentiment is far from ok now and looks fragile but then again just an opinion.
"For investors making decisions based on short-run asset class performance it is critical to be aware that outcomes will be incredibly noisy, driven by erratic sentiment and have a wide range of potential paths. Although imperfect, extending our time horizons can give us a little more confidence" just read this in a newsletter.
Blows my mind why day traders think you can consistently make a profit with day trading, all the odds are against you. Studies show 97 % lose in the end. If you want to make money in the markets you must earn it......
Hi, you did a great job at this price average. Only liars are able to claim they pick the bottom. I started looking at Asos Q1 2022 and bought some at 20 pound. Painfull lessons but I studied the business and waited and waited, then added at 10 more waited again, watched all QA with the new CEO etc and when at 5 before Xmas i doubled down. Even the most conservative DCF got me to 11-12 pounds . Never believed Asos could go down for a second and still believe the turnaround will be ok 2024, my main thinking is now if Asos can turn into an investment longer term and create value and FCF like they did before? If yes, this will go to 30 and higher and make me a 4-5 bagger. This must be exactly the thought process of strategic buyers who might do a bid. Fashion is extremely competitive and ASOS has no or little moat .....Disclosure, 4 K shares at 712 pounds in the mix. So my exit is now wait and see how the story develops in 2023. Volatility i do not care about, this brings opportunity it is the risks of losing capital that must be nr 1 in this play. So i am not a trader, to stressful job for me. Good luck to you all.
This is how wall street works. Street targets have zero value to me. These banks do not give a you know about a businesss and their clients. But if it helps killing the shorts I say a big thank you. Risk reward is still great at ASOS even at this price. Just wait for 2 years and you will be fine. Reminds me of BABA in Q4 after Xi got re elected, all these banks said china is uninvestable and look what happened. Long ASOS!
Have been reading some of the post here. Some great some so negative. Been long ASOS with small position since couple of months and added agressively at 5 pounds and made already serious money in two weeks . Did not expect it to go up so soon. Still learning a lot about this business. It was such a no brainer to add before x-mas that I could not believe Mr Market presented this to us. I love to see people who bet on a company going down taking a hit. Just is not my game, to negative for me and I love to see people be succesfull. I am a long only investor and ASOS in this phase for me still is not an investment yet but a turnaround trade. Normally I tend to stay away from turnarounds because of the risks (most turnarounds fail and are unpredictable) , but the risk reward ratio at 5 pounds was good enough to me for a max 5 % portfolio position. The thing with ASOS is that I could not see the moat and still think they do not have it. Fashion is difficult but I like the niche focus 20 something. This can easily go back to 12-14 this year and who knows what happens if FCF returns to 100-200 M. The moment I read JPM 10 pounds I could not stop laughing. The moment to add with low risk was before X mas. I will not add more to my positions and watch patiently to see who it unfolds, the only true edge we have is patience as retail investors. What do you people believe, is it already an investment or a turnaround trade? If the first, we might see 30-40 in 3 years again making it a 6 bagger for me. Or do you think a turnaround trade?