Chris Heminway, Exec-Chair at Time To ACT, explains why now is the right time for the Group to IPO. Watch the video here.
Thank you China for helping us in the west to keep inflation low due to your cheap labour since opening , but at what cost here in the West? I have seen from close how unfair CCP competition works, non respect for IP, unfair state subsidies, working conditions 180 degrees from what we would accept here. The globalisation we are one happy family is not working and I never believed in it and kept buying UK made products with my business. It will costs us and there might be more conflict but what I want from our politics is that they are finally starting to protect western business against unfair competition. We are 500 M people in UK/EU , leverage this buying power to CCP and you will see how fast the pricing of products of Shein will be on par or higher then ASOS.
Information moves prices not hope. No transparent news from LSE what the incident was or is, typical British behaviour (sorry guys, we also have here in the Netherlands some cultural aspects not always understood by outsiders) but always keeping up appearances no matter what. Just share with your customers what happened. How difficult can it be!
All this day by day fluctuation talk is entertaining but it is nothing more then a randon walk. Case is simpel imho, the turnaround takes time and will deliver perhaps earliest in 24/early 25. If they do, SP will reward my patience and make it a multi bagger for me. Long with 10 K shares, high conviction. If a bids comes we will deal with it then. The longer the SP goes sideways the bigger the explosion, north or south. I am in it for the turnaround only, not for buy hold long term as I believe this business segment has limited moat despite the scale, brands etc.
Fully agree, I did the same in my own company at a much much smaller scale. We focused at the 80/20 rule, kicked out the losing 20 % customers that created most work and grew after 1 year back to a happier customer base, more profits etc. Especially with state of the art software and all the data ASOS has they can do this, under pressure the learning curve is the steepest. Progress is made under the radar, once you see it as outsiders the SP already reflects it.
In the Netherlands one of the biggest online sellers started in april with 50 cents mandatory payment fee to return products. Results are 10 % less return. They had 50 K products back everyday so savings are good but even more the awareness of consumers to think first when they buy. Returns can be reduced much more if better sizes, pictures etc are included in the software. H&M will increase return costs to 1,95 euro as of 1 nov23 and Zara is already at 1,99 euro.
Agree we are all entitled to our own opinions, otherwise there would be no buying and selling. But why would you take the risky bet with ASOS for only limited amount of upside of let us say 2 pounds? Last bid of turks (funded by saudi is the rumor) of 10 was rejected. Situation is improving and strategic insider buyers are adding because things do not stay at a bottom forever when people are under pressure, if you wait for more proof the big upswing will be gone. I see this going to 10-14 in 24 months unless we get a bust in the overall market for example by a credit event, or whatever black swan but if the turnaround works the market will price this in rapidly. The thing with ASOS is now that most can not deal with the uncertainty pressure, I see this as a game of chess and really enjoy it. This board alone is more value then a course of human crowd behavior. Back to the waiting table. DYOR and thinking. Wish all of you the best.
Ofcourse they will wait, a share is a piece of ownership of a business to them. Let the shorts have fun in their kindergarten of gambling. Trading update is in line with my expectations. Back to the waiting table where the real money is made if thesis holds, for me it does, that turnaround is working step by step by step. Let us hope the discounting on autum/winter stock will be limited.
TIKR shows mean price of 5,64 for the street. 27 analyst. Highest is 19,1 and lowest is 1,9 with 6 buys, 14 holds and 7 sell.
The est FCF from the street is 53,2 2024 and 45,6 in 2025. Very dangerous if you take these numbers serious.
Agree, I am in the mix at 5,3 pounds and ok with that as the thesis 23/24 is a turnaround that will deliver and and stock goes back to at least 10-14.
But then again, what do we really know about the "game". So much crowd sentiment. The whole thinking that there are some "THEY outthere" is the smart money is blablabla. If it is the shorts or the longs, I have never seen or met them. A lot of the smart city guys make the same mistake as small joe and on average do not outperform. The only way to real big money is to be an insider entrepreneur and IPO or VC your business. One of my reasons to ride the turnaround is based on the current shareholder developments.
See my calculation from two weeks ago, exactly the same zone of 12-14 pounds despite that it remains a turnaround bet and nobody knows when it will happen. In my experience the longer a SP sleeps the more hungry when it opens. Very interesting game phase we are in now , loaded the wagon in the mix at 5 pounds since this summer so still at a loss. Will not add more because we need to stay humble. This is not coca cola. I never normally follow a share chat but this is very good to watch and learn. Thanks to all who add value.
GGG, the stocks owns you. Not healthy man, take it easy. If the turnarounds works you will be rewarded, just be patience. If we get a bid also. If all goes down you lose, but this will not happen here.
My fair Value calculation if thesis hold that debt will be under “control” and turnaround works. I leave aside a bid as a catalyst. Today sales LTM is 3773. Three scenarios in 2028, number 1 no growth meaning able to recover loss of coming years. How realistic is that? Number 2 small growth 3 % is 4374 and number 3 is 5 % gives sales of 4815. The average net income to common in 2013-2023 is 2,05 % (that includes the loss making years). I take 2 % for S1, 2,5 % for S2 and 3 % for S3. Based on current number of shares gives me a 5 year EPS diluted of 0,69/0,99/1,31. For S1 I use a PE of 15, S2 a PE 17 and S3 a PE of 20. Gives me a range between 10,3 / 16,9 and 26,3 pounds in 2028. Average 17,8 pounds. A check via FCF (inc the estimates of analyst) gives me based on my revenue the following: FCF % yield last 10 years was 3,2 %. Since I believe ASOS will return to positive FCF in 2024/25 and 2023 is already priced in I come to a DCF value of (based on 10 % wacc) of somewhere between 10-14 pounds. The PE driven price of 17,8 against 10 % is about 11 pounds. Will the thesis hold? I think yes because macro will someday improve and youngsters will always be attracted to fashion, ASOS will most likely re-invent process/culture/strategy/balance sheet because the pain now is so big that leadership is driven to the bone, perhaps we are lucky and the Chinese cheap cloth players are finally being brought to a fair playing field via EU/UK/US rules. The three elephants as I call them playing games now for increasing their stake are true industry insiders with a long term outlook. I would like to see leadership taking bigger % in the company but we can not have it all. Based on the Spitsnagel Faustmann ratio I entered this summer in ASOS. The purpose is to conservatively calculate the price of the company (market cap) relative to net worth. I think ASOS is now an asymmetric bet in terms of risk reward. This is an exciting story, the numbers I used I am well aware off are best guesses and with turnarounds you can lose but I am positioned accordingly. The shorts behave interesting, is there a leak? Perhaps yes Perhaps no, but the going up and down of shorts is hard to grasp for me as an outsider. If this rerates for whatever reason let us hope that fomo in combination with limited free float will move us long holders to my fair value rates. How fast? No idea. Only constructive replies are appreciated. Have a nice weekend.
We know that, hence the saying if you want a friend at wall street buy a dog. Patience is a rare commodity in investing, I am in it for the long haul, still confident ASOS will make it and I will be rewarded in 24/25. Take care.
Who cares what JP Morgan advises? I do not. They run their own show and short term PL. I am patient with this leadership. Started buying in the 390 zone after visiting several shops in 2021/2022 and finalising my thesis that discount offline retailing will grow this decade above average based on squeezed middleclass both in GB and France (140 M people). So if they double the number of stores while maintaining operational excellence in stores, DC and HQ their purchasing volumes will only increase making the end pricing more attractive in theory as their suppliers will be happy to take the volumes and do attrative instore promo. Adding these stores from Wilco and turning them around at missing locations BME in new well run stores will be a long term value. They will pay most likely a low price as Wilco is in deep trouble now. Ofcourse this will be an investment but that is what you do when you run a business. BME is one of the few retailers offline I am invested in, the remainder is all ecommerce.
If big elephants start eating best to follow them and pick up the left overs they missed. Waiting patiently to see what happens. All the best to the long holders and lets hope the elephants crush the shorts. Sorry about that.....
Indeed basic, perhaps a better timeless read for ASOS turnaround investors is "How to invest in problem companies" by W.Knowlton and J Furth from Shaking the money tree. The way out of trouble is never as simple as the way in. As said by many here we need patience to see it unfold. Let us see who is at this forum in 2024/2025. Njoy your weekend.
I take this information seriously, just like when I ask my kids what is hot in their group or watch in the malls for busy stores or ask friends what they see happening in their businesses. This made me invest for example early in pharma selling weight losing drugs as a friend imformed me about his lack of diabetes medicine as it was used by many in US to lose weight. Coming to a thesis to invest includes data and story. Problem these days is that waiting on a update to invest in a business will not give you any edge. Especially also because of all the accounting rules less and less reflecting value catalysts. This is one of the reasons why Charlie Munger states that EBITA is BS. Financials matter but the qualitative aspects will deliver you the real long term value. These include seeing things like momentum increase in post.
So much research and experience tells us that daytrading is for the happy few 5 % to make consistent money over time. I am not one of them. The other 95 % loses money in the end, same for most hedge fund managers. I worked in the hedge fund business and my best estimate is that 80 % does not beat the index over time, even more adjusted for fees. Most investors would fail at running a business themselves. Turning ASOS around is a difficult thing to do but not impossible. Just came back from holiday and digital detox, happy to see ASOS going up but my thesis is unchanged. I get paid to wait, this is what makes it so difficult for me and most but I know it pays off in the mix. Sitting and doing nothing as trees grow step by step. If the turnarounds works and macro remains steady asos will be rerated in the coming years. Have no clue how long that will take but I am prepared to wait because the payoff will be worth it. The most difficult question here is when to exit if a takeover will not be realised. Back to the waiting table. All the best.
You talk too much.
Dear All, long asos and in it for the turnover the play out. Just checked my TIKR newsfeed that stated 13/7 a new trading statement should come. Did not see that on the investor portal. I thought they would report next on P4 mid sept, period june/july/aug. Anybody here could clarify? Thanks.