Harry_P on II6 Jan 2011 20:53
Good evening all,
Another good day for Rambler today on the SP front, but more importantly with the company fundamentals.
AND add to that a very interesting and potentially excellent/exciting development at the end of the day.
Many may have noticed the massive end of day and late reported trades that went through.
Over the past few weeks, posters may have seen a seller who has been offloading blocks of 100k on a continual basis. I believe this has been the thing that has kept the rise in the SP at a more moderate level and slower than the continual buying pressure may have normally seen/warranted.
When the RNS was out this morning I expected the SP to jog on a little more than it did and when I checked the trades I could see the 100k sells coming through again giving the mm's stock to feed the buys.
Because of this I re-checked the company website to see which ii might be selling these blocks, from that I saw that the info was out of date so I emailed the company. A very! senior director came back to me late this morning and promised to get this sorted.
By late afternoon the page had been updated, see link;
http://www.ramblermines.com/securities_info.php
From the information I held earlier I could see that CDS & Co were the culprit having previously gone from 14.3 mln to 9.3 mln. For me that explained the situation but also slightly concerned me (not that there was a seller, ii's sell for all kinds of reasons, but more that continual sells could hold back any SP momentum).
However, this may have been blown out of the water about 30 minutes after doing this research, as we've had these massive trades.
Towards the end of the day we've seen;
4.27pm - 12 million at 32.4p
4.27pm - 8.3 million at 32.65p
4.28pm - 8 million at 32.9p
4.43pm - 0.591 million at 32.9p
4.45pm - 0.1 million at 32.9p
4.47pm - 1.1 million at 32.9p
http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/exchange-insight/trade-data.html?page=0&fourWayKey=GB00B06Y3F14GBGBXAIM&formName=frmRow&upToRow=-1
Taking all of this info into account I believe that we may have seen the end of CDS and I think the 12 million trade can only be Altius Resources moving on. Now, imho, there is no way the market could absorb that level of stock (mm's don't hold quantity like that) without the SP falling off a cliff, and with the trades around them still in the 38p ranges I think we may well be seeing new ii's taking up the positions.
Okay, from there, IF CDS are no longer with us AND they were the seller of the 100k blocks we may well have seen the end of the continual feeding of stock into the market, which means the supply for the mm's to cover the buying pressure coming in will have gone. IF that buying pressure continues then the only way the mm's will be able to feed the buys is to entice sells (and that is done by upping the price on the bid).
I've seen this sort of situation play out a number of times, check out
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