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Like many LTH's of AVO I am awaiting an update following that of October 2018. I believe in that RNS we were informed final testing at max levels would be acheived by "mid year" 2019.
That said what can we realistically expect to hear that will stop the automatic drop of the SP in the event of no news...with the cash burn of £1.4M a month the SP could drop to new lows in the absence of news.
We need AVO to clarify on all fronts in the very near future - sales expectancies, testing, production advancements et al or the future looks very bleak!!!
In the most recent Technology Update reference was made to "A further technical update will be provided in a few days". The following day the 6 Monthly Report was issued with the same, albeit briefer, reference to meeting the milestones. Two questions:
1. Will there be a further, updated detailed time plan through to completion of testing.
2. Both reports made reference to the time plan of 18 months ago and I would like to know how this compares to the current time lines.
What we need to know is the finite date when a fully tested, working model ready for medical evaluation and early production will be available. This it appears to me is when sales orders can realistically be put in place. I also think this would give a boost to the sp.
I will appreciate input from those who might have this information to hand.
Ian1234.....fair question....what are the critical factors going forward:
1. Adhering to or beating the laid down project development plan....any loss in this area will send the sp plummeting and impact adversely all other areas of concern.
2. Favourable news on potential global orders/sales is as expected but realising the potential rests entirely on producing a fully tested working model within the timeframes.
3. Cash burn is a concern but if timeframes are adhered to there should be enough in the pot to see AVO through to the production phase which in turn will release "upfront" cash through sales.
4. The management structure now looks robust in all areas and certainly has a "global" feel.
I see the sp vacillating between 0.46p and 0.54p until news, good or bad, is released. Good news will see the sp between 0.60p and 0.75p depending on the strength of the news. I will not visit bad news!!!
Fingers crossed.
The SP drop of circa 25% in under two weeks after having help its level for over four/five months is frightening and resembles the situation in 2016/17 when the lack of news from AVO (positive or negative) resulted in a meteoric SP drop. One of the reasons for this current situation might be as a direct result of the report commissioned by the company for the Hardman report was hardly encouraging and set out clearly the fact that clinical testing would not be finished until 2020 and therefore that must influence adversely the possibility of early sales orders. The report also went to lengths to stress the sanctioning of the money transfer out of China does take time......no indication of how long!!! If news, on any front, is not forthcoming in the next few days I fear the impact on the SP will be very unfavourable and may follow the course of 2016/17. As a long time shareholder I truly hope good news is imminent.
According to the technical plan when is the next milestone update on the testing of the CCL's due.......did I understand that this testing is in 4 parts at the varying proton delivery speeds through to Q4. What chance of early news on potential sales from the newly appointed distributor or is this just not on until the kit is fully tested? Apart from progress reports on Harley Street what other significant news can be expected from AVO over the next weeks/months.
The flood of share "sells" and the downwards sp spiral since the interim report of 30th June reflects the lack of news emanating from the AVO executive, in spite of the upbeat message in the report stipulating "news would be forthcoming shortly" and the "great confidence in positive refinancing"...since which - NADA. As previously stated this mirrors the lack of transparency which crashed the sp in 2014/2015. Many shareholders who got badly burned then have subsequently reinvested in the expectation this situation of silence/untruths could not possibly re-occur - myself included. The truth of the matter is any news, good or bad, is better that no news because market uncertainty kicks in and then there is a run on the share.....the snowball effect now being seen. Without significant long term finance put in place within the next few days and conveyed to the market then the situation is untenable regardless of any success in the trialing. I hope this message stimulates some action by other bloggers and indeed some financing news and lets hope the outcome is truly positive.
The Half Year report of 29th September made mention of "regular updates on future progress", "update on longer term financing options in due course" and "confidence that additional funds will be available as and when needed". In round terms the half yearly figures of 30th June 2017 showed Cash and equivalents of �10.8M, Current Liabilities of �9.4M and a monthly Cash burn of �1.2M (�4.8M to date). With no known income streams or new financing that picture looks rather bleak. Where are the updates.....this is symptomatic of the problems AVO experienced in 2015/2016 when the markets reacted adversely to the lack of communication and transparency. Unless updates are forthcoming the sp will take a renewed beating making new financing that much more difficult to achieve. Are u still in Rhyme or Reason......would appreciate your insight.
Pipe dreams, realism and negativity appear to be used a great deal on this platform. Adverse facts (realism) cannot be disputed albeit they are negative in content. All investors wish to see the company succeed. Read the Annual Report - facts. Delivery of machine on schedule for 2020 not 2017 as previously stated. If this date could be brought forward the BOD would ensure the world were aware. Staff numbers up from 43 to 75 in the past year. Staff costs now running at over £9M including capitalised project costs. Admin costs up from £7.6M to £13.1M in one year. Surely when the trial period is extended costs inevitably should be cut. At this burn rate the company will require a minimum of £53M to continue operations till 2020.....the cost of finance even now is horrifying and the impact on the SP by way of share dilution cannot be overstated. It would be surprising if the company whilst looking to put in place additional financing were not also exploring the very real possibility of selling the company "as is" to one of the market big hitters thereby securing their very livelihoods and the possibility of redeeming the massive share options that the BOB and executive have put in place. I really hope the machine is brought to market in the shortest possible time but I harbour severe doubts this will be under the guidance of AVO.
As previously I support ROReason's viewpoints. The future drawdowns of the Bracknor loans will be devastating on the share price...the trailing period is still way down the line.....ealiest estimate is late 2018.....any best business practice in these circumstances is to put every available resource into advancing the trailing and cutting costs...I have seen no evidence of cost cutting in fact just the opposite more highly paid executives who are taken on with no skill sets to advance trialing.....the most likely event is they will run out of money before the machine is in production....meanwhile the executives will continue to draw down their enormous pay packets on the back of the Brackner loans. Where is the monthly feedback on progress...none because there is none....we all want it to work but the only word is Shambolic.
I have just reviewed the AVO share charts for the past year and the continued downwards trend is a true reflection of the appalling performance of the executive and BOD over this period. The lack of truthful and meaningful information over the past eighteen months, especially as regards the machine testing, is in itself revealing. The inability to inform the markets and their shareholders of the revised timescales for successful testing (which must have been known to set in motion the production contracts with the French partners) was at the very least an error of judgement and caused massive loss of confidence. This has subsequently been compounded by cancelled sales contracts, hugely costly refinancing deals, botched presentations, misleading RNS's and attempts to jig the share price on AIM. Where will the next rabbit come from?
The RNS put out this morning is indeed most welcome news. Why on earth was this RNS not put out before the Investor Presentation and indeed included in both the "Progress Highlights" at the outset of the presentation and featured most prominently in the "Commercialisation" section of the presentation. The presentation focused far too strongly on the contentious Bracknor deal. The 20% equity participation by the BOD and executive and the fact that other non dilutive finance options are under review is more than relevant and might have averted the dramatic drop in the SP.....in fact it may have resulted in an increase.
RhymeOrReason - Like you I have relieved myself of my total holding this morning after much soul searching. Of course we all wanted a winner both for the pocket and global cancer support. However I could not in the light of the misgivings in my earlier mail continue to support a company in which I have totally lost faith for very valid reasons. These concerns have been aired directly with AVO over the months both the Walpole and more directly by experienced investors. As regards Zurich I fear much of the sameness.....and further ammunition to fuel the fire burning under the SP. By the time the Light machine comes to market AVO will be out of cash and the shares will be so diluted as to be useful only as wallpaper!!!
I did not attend the Presentation but have now reviewed the slides and RNS. This event was for "Investors" who wanted to know about timelines, time lines missed and why, current and future cash burn, essential future financing, the impact of share dilution, potential markets and sales based on current relationships, what are the "lean" AVO work force of 100 actually doing if the Light machine does not come to market until 2020 at the earliest and Production, PR, et al are outsourced. These subjects were put to the back of the field, and addressed either in part or not at all - the main thrust of the whole presentation was already known - the benefits to global health of having a working Light machine. As an investor of over 3 years I am appalled at the lack of clarity provided by the BOD and senior executives over the past 18 months when they had to know sizeable delays were inevitable and the savage impact this would have on both the cash resources and the SP. Was it lying, naivety or incompetence.They now have jobs for the next 2/3 years on the back of an extremely expensive Bracknor deal during which time the SP will continue its slide into oblivion at the total expense of the "Investors" who have supported them over the years. The share price just over a year ago was in excess of £2. What a sad state of affairs!!!
Like other posters I look forward to the Investor Presentation on 7th March but with concerns. The need to put in place additional Financing of £26M, over and above the Metric deal, with the direct impact this will have on the SP, if fully drawn down, is to say the least worrying - no further dilution was the message following the last share issue. The cash burn continues at circa £1.0M to £1.3M monthly. The senior most executives jointly enjoy an annual income well in excess of £1M , have attractive share options ongoing and in the last months other highly paid individuals have also joined the executive ranks. The new financing appears extremely expensive which suggests the degree of risk involved which is perhaps why Thale and the previous equity partners showed little appetite. The global sales team appear to have been treading water for the past year and the complete lack of meaningful investor information from the company has been deafening. In the end It comes down to will the trialing be successful, in what time frame and can Thale manufacture in accordance with the agreed schedule. If this is proven, sales will roll in. Roll on the Presentation. In hindsight a cynic might look at the facts above and draw incorrect conclusions!!!