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I mirror the continuing concerns about meeting the "summer" deadline. Strangely after reading the RNS I was firmly of the opinion the sp would rise some 20% on the basis of completing the testing of the final CCL, the sale orders now totalling 6 machines, the confirmed cashflow to see them through the next stages through to manufacture, the positive news on proton flash technology, quicker set up of the Light system, the Leasing agreement making possible reduced upfront expenditure and overall upbeat and positive messages....the only downsides I now see are the possibilities of gaining FDA approval in quick order coupled with the monthly outgoing costs of circa £2.3m...this does burn money quickly!!!
The sp is perilously close now to the next critical ceiling of £0.20. The longest day is passed and we are 1 week away from July. The cashflow must be of concern when last year the average company monthly outflows were circa £2.3M. No news has been released to suggest they are on target to achieve 230 MeV output which suggests this is not yet clear or it is clear this will not be achieved and they are buying time. The AGM looms and we have not had a release from their market promoters and advisers....again quite significant. Confidence has now been replaced by hope.
Hey Guys...the LTH know that IF the machine works at predicted outputs the sp will immediately double....if AVO does not meet THEIR deadlines then we are all in a loss/loss situation. I truly expect them to succeed without doing as in the past trying to cover up bad news...if successful the company will be a winner both saleable and a wonderful future money maker....I appreciation the input of certain of the objective and technical investors....keep strong guys.
AVO is represented by the Crown Jewels. The Crown Jewels represent AVO – global excellence for the treatment of cancer, brilliance of CERN technology and your investments to date. The Crown jewels are surrounded by extreme safety features. Each safety feature represents a period of time, a huge jolt to the nervous system and a delay/drop in the sp. You, the investor, want to touch and hold the Crown Jewels.
The 1st safety device is camera imaging fed to security services - you walk through; the 2nd is a number of closely aligned electrified high voltage wires – you climb through but are weakened; the 3rd is a series of “hidden” wave beams each of which emits a highly dangerous piecing high pitch scream…..you are now so close….next “the last hurdle” – an area covered by random beamed death rays…you walk on…you must touch the Crown Jewels!!!
And then you wake up and you are in the present day.
The END.
Hi iWantThatOne, I certainly hope you are correct and AVO accord with that statement, and, the sooner the better on two fronts.....obviously the news if positive will give the sp an enormous boost which will lift spirits in all directions including raising future funds in spite of the funding agreement of last August....some £40m if taken up. However we must bear in mind the loss for the 6 months to June 30th 2021 was £15m which equates to a monthly outlay of over £2.4m...every month burns cash and potential production costs will need to be addressed.
Hi max19....I agree with your sentiments wholeheartedly but I am held back by the thought there is unlikely to be any news before the company can report having successfully tested at 230mev....each week, from the last disastrous technical update the sp has dropped to new low levels, forced down by sell orders and the lack of meaningful news. I can see no way at this time of halting the decline over the next 3/5 months without SOME news - good or bad. The BOD are between a rock and hard place caused by previous "obfuscations of true timelines" in spite of the known technical difficulties and previously unknown certification requirements.....this is perhaps what they should have stressed as the main reasons behind delays...
I have just read about the extreme difficulties in sourcing electric cable from Ukraine....what will they use now to hold the P.B. machine together.....I can see another excuse looming at the end of summer (late September).
Only jesting!!!
Hi Vanilla...you obviously understand my/other shareholder frustrations and the reasons behind them and like myself you identify "summer" can be interpreted as August/September. Do you or other shareholders have an insight into the order, necessary steps and related timescales for the company to produce:
A fully tested and validated machine that operates at 230MEV
The necessary validations, accreditations (and any other requirement) required including "installation and build time" in order to treat the first patient in the UK
The validations and accreditations required before the machine can be installed and operate in global markets.
The documentation and partner(s) required in order to commence manufacturing operations.
At what point can the company commence selling the fully validated machine globally.
These are the questions which as a non technical guy would have expected to see from AVO by way of an indicative project plan OR have I missed this bit?
End of summer does sound optimistic.
It would appear the excuses, economy of truth, half truths, fabrication of meaningful project timelines and constant dilution of the issued share capital have finally caught up with the company and its BOD/Executive. The market, as predicted, has lost confidence in the ability of AVO to meet its stated commitments and the expected timelines promised. We are all aware of the technical complexities of the final product but over a two year window to hide behind "it worked in CERN", the "now de-risked", etc, statements ,clouded the real issues to be faced and treated all investors as buffoons. How low will it now drop before good news arrives!!!
Drip, drip, drip, slide....one month passes without a bleep and the sp drops 35%. Expectations are now at an all time low with the anticipation of AVO BOD realising their goal of producing a fully operating machine "around the end of Q1".....I suggest their choice of words was carefully thought out that this can be read as Q2. The longer this lack of ANY information on progress continues the more difficult it will be to keep this train on the track....the raising of more funds will be that much more difficult and with the sp on the floor they will be needing to give the company away to acheive that aim. A progress report indicating a realistic end date should have been issued when the sp was circa 0.40p.....it is not too late!!!
Disappointing news to see the sp below 0.30p. Over the last year we have seen the steady sp decline because of raising expectations by issuing a report last year claiming "the de-risking of the technicalities of producing a machine operating at 230mev and raising capital to see us through the production phase" and then failing to produce an operational machine on the timescales declared. The sp has dropped 6.67% in the last 5 days, 23.64% in the last 1 month and 32.41% in the last year. The company website shows the following positions open to interested parties: Daresbury:
Power Converters Onsite Engineer, RF Onsite Engineer, Electromechanical Installation Engineer, Electrical Installation Engineer, Mechanical Installation Engineer, Vacuum Engineer, Accelerator Operator, IT Systems Engineer, Beam Diagnostics Engineer, Site HSE Officer. Who is carrying out these roles now....how long to train for these challenging roles...are are to have a functioning machine within 6 weeks? In view of all the comments in the past weeks on this platform we need some clarification from the BOD before this share goes into freefall!!!
Well said Vanilla....you have encapsulated in summary the views of many of the LTH's and I would think a few of the more recent "heavy" investors. Many of us have followed your path of investing to reduce the average sp price. The reference to the cancelled Chinese orders and the previous missed deadlines for delivery of a "fully functional machine operating at 230 mev" (first missed delivery date was I think 2018) leading to the loss of trust in the BOD, Executive and to a degree Hardman is exact, and, inexcusable IF they fail again to deliver in Q1. As you say fingers crossed.
The sp once again approaches the point at which it hits true resistance - low 0.30's.....a very attractive price if the anticipated news in Q1 is positive with the sp expected to double overnight on this news..... LTH's and eagle eyed punters are today "jumping in and buying in anticipation".
The BOD are now between a rock and a hard place unless the news is positive....they have given a concrete delivery date i.e. in Q1. in the past months/years they have had to provide "plausible excuses" to underpin their inexactness in accurately establishing a credible project delivery timeline and this over time has worn patience very thin. Another delay from delivering in Q1 will finally remove the last vestiges of trust in the BOD and result in the sp dropping into the 0.20's and lower. I am most hopeful that this time they are on the ball and AVO can finally start installing, commencing production and marketing what should be truly remarkable global centres of excellence for cancer treatment. Please keep to the script BOD.
Many thanks to iWantThatOne et al for the balanced technical insights which AVO fails to provide. What is al likely outcome in the next weeks? In Aug 2021 AVO raised £40M through share issues and another £50M in warrants when required...this they said will see us through final accreditation/validation expected end 2021. This has now slipped end Q1 2022 at a monthly slippage cost of say £1.3M...executive, sales, production, procurement, admin, et al teams sitting on the sidelines waiting to perform...IF delay past Q1 is forthcoming there will be the usual unsubstantiated/able excuses followed, or preceded, by the usual upbeat market report from Hardman to lessen the pain. IF this happens the impact on the sp will be dramatic as the vestiges of trust will be blown away....I really do hope they keep on track with delivery as planned and forecast!!!!!
I have read and reread the 6 page article in the Sunday Times featuring and applauding the UCLH Proton Beam machine now installed in Manchester and being installed in London.....great exposure for Proton Beam therapy!!! I expected a flurry of posts on this site and "buy" orders on AIM as a result. Subject to any further delays we have been informed by AVO that news of a fully validated machine operating at 230mev is due before the end of Q1 2022.....this would allow transfer and install at the Harley Street and Birmingham sites to commence and an influx of orders to enable the build of the first 8 machines for global markets. Comparing the size, weight, build cost and operating costs between the AVO and UCLH machines is places AVO in a very, very favourable light or am I misreading the facts and data!!! On the strength of my belief I have topped up again and hope this is justified by results.
Hi Guys....the Technical Update put out, as predicted, before YE seems to have had the opposite effect to that intended. Like others I have read and re-read the RNS and find little comfort in the "yet again" time slippage with no firm commitment to meet set deadlines. The wording "slipping into 2022" and a validated system maybe by end of Q1 seems tentative. As pointed out earlier this week a validated machine sitting in Cheshire is a long way off a patient operational machine at one of the intended sites. Like you guys I am surprised at the sp dropping so quickly when expectations were obviously it would bounce upwards....strange. At this price it must be worth another punt in the hope AVO meets it deadline targets in 2022!!!
A question for the group. Over the past 2/3 weeks buy orders have far exceeded sell orders in value including 2 buy orders of £250K and yet the sp drops by 0.03p within a day with no other changes.....where is the logic OR is the market maker taking account of the delay and lack of information reference news on the successful testing of the machine?
The way in which this news was put out to the market at the very last moment, when it must have been recognised weeks ago beggars belief....competent supply chain procurement and management....laughable......more importantly the very fact it was preceded by the upbeat news of raising £40M and positive contract signings et al, to deflect the true impact is both devious and underhand.....it was like a casual aside....there is also no certainty on delivering in Q1 of 2022...how the sp remains at these levels is also astonishing.
Predictably AGM results - tick all motions carry on as usual not a blind thing to support the comments in the results statement....last AGM done by on site video - this year not - why? I cut out snippets from the annual returns RNS statement put out many weeks ago:
We have an important objective: achieving a 230MeV beam on our LIGHT system that is being assembled in Daresbury. Yet, we recognise that to be successful in the long-term we need to have a vision that goes beyond the first machine. This means we must have the right foundation in place to operate ethically and sustainably. At Advanced Oncotherapy, we have been focused on this for many years.
We believe in the need to transition to an economy that is centred on sustainability.
The success of our strategy and execution plan relies on well- proven design and industrial processes.
In 2020, we also formed a dedicated, cross-disciplinary ESG working group bringing HR, Finance and Supply Chain together. We are committed to enhancing our ESG performance and are developing a structured roadmap defining our key areas of focus and development.
We will set out a clear roadmap intended to build on this platform, pinpointing specific areas of focus to deliver against internal and external expectations.
WHERE IS THE ROAD MAP...WHY NOT BUILD A MODEL THAT WORKS RATHER THAN A FUTURE MODEL TO MEET FUTURE EXPECTATIONS....WHERE IS THE STRATEGY AND INPUT FROM THE ESG.....WAIT FOR 2022 AND THE NEXT AGM.