Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
“Lonny and I were very upset this morning about the share price reaction to what we put out. And you can see from the portfolio we have here. So we decided that we’ll keep all options open, so we are looking at a private equity buyout as another option for us to secure the value in the assets. So that’s something we’ll be looking at over the next couple of months but it makes sense to us because the market is simple not giving us the value for our assets.”
“It’s not really a bombshell, it’s just pretty obvious right that believe that the value in what we have, particularly in Morocco, is not being expressed in the market. So if private equity are willing to offer a lot, lot more that what the market values it for, why wouldn’t that be good for shareholders?” [Q&A]
“So the testing will create the value. We wouldn't look at private equity now before the testing but you can see from those figures it would be easy to structure a deal where you’ve got value for what you’ve tested and then you’ve got increase in value through royalties and bonus payments etc. down the road. And for private equity to get into CNG development in Morocco, for example, would be a fantastic deal for them. And maybe we would structure it where the subsidiary is the one that goes into the private equity vehicle, all different ways of structuring it. But we are not going to sit around the let the public market destroy our value and our creditability and the effort we’ve put in over many years to create this situation, and then just like Eytan in world-class farm-out he’s just done, we’re not going to sit there are just lose value. Our peers understand the value and, in fact, every time the share price drops, it makes it more attractive to private equity, it makes it more attractive to be bought out at a low price and that does not serve to benefit our shareholders.” [Q&A]
“I don’t see any major risks. The risks with the testing is getting through the formation damage. We believe we’ll get through the formation damage but we can’t be 100% certain, nobody can be 100% certain of anything in the oil and gas business, but we believe everything’s lined up to do that, and we’ve got the most powerful tool that we need – Sandjet – to do that. In terms of the exploration, the risk is that the trap isn’t charged for some reason or that it’s not as big as we think. But the bottom line is that we don’t have to find too much for it to be commercial in Morocco. So, in some ways, better to find less because it’s easier to develop than more. In some ways, it’s better to find gas not the gas-condensate, so that would be a risk. In Trinidad, we have very little risk, everything’s producing, we work very well in the country. Ireland, well the risk is the next general election and making sure that it’s not the same coalition that it is now…” [Q&A]
“Now everybody sneered at the NuTech logs when we started this process, everybody. However, NuTech has been proven right in every single case without exception since then. So we believe NuTech is the key to unlocking value, not just here in Morocco but also in Trinidad where it’s never been used before.”
“[Re Titanosaurus]... this prospect, is huge. 177Km2 of closure. This is the limit of structural closure. Where we drilled we had maybe 5 or 6 metres of structural closure. Where we are going to drill we have 249m of closure within the carbonate. We’re using 50m only for the 3P case. And our source rock work recently shows that this source rock here, just below the carbonate, is in the oil window. It’s likely to be a gas-condensate source, sourced mainly from off-structure so that’s why we’re putting in a condensate case rather than an oil case or a pure gas case. It’s likely to be a wet gas... So it’s a world-class prospect.”
“Obviously, as I said before, to develop this prospect [Titanosaurus] would take a huge effort including building a gas-condensate processing plant. We’re not in that business, we’re in the business of selling it on. We’re not the junior BP here, we’re a small company, entrepreneurial, find it, talk it up, prove it, sell it.”
“… the value to us in Trinidad in gross revenues is again in the order of $1.66billion gross revenues. So Trinidad offers us that second string to our bow, onshore production. We’re re-inventing the economic model for Trinidad on the basis of Sandjet, going in and perforating things that have never been perforated before, and on the basis of Nutech, identifying those horizons that [had been] missed previously in the 1950’s and 60’s.”
(cont...)
“And the big bonus [with Sandjet] was it can actually perforate through 2 thicknesses of casing, so we can now perforate that shallow gas that we found at 339m safely in this well as well, instead of drilling a new well. So we can add that to our perforating programme, and that maybe is connecting with somewhere in the order of 30Bcf of gas which in real terms, net-back to us is like $150M, so not to be sniffed at to add that to our programme.”
“With Sandjet we can run one run and take 20 samples. So this is just the key sands in MOU-3, so for 20 penetrations we can perforate 20m of sand, versus 4m of sand with the perforating guns.”
“What we can also do is have an example here, this is the Rharb basin and this is our Ma sand. Similar thicknesses, our sand is a Feldspathic sand which means has a different mineralogy so it has a slightly different log character but it’s a clean sand on the gamma log. That well in the Rharb basin flowed 15mmcfgpd [from 4.4m of pay]. We’re being ultra-conservative saying we can flow maybe 3 or 4 mmcfgpd out of this. So the potential, and remember you’ve got 20m of sand in just this one well, is huge in just this interval, and that’s why we’re focused on this interval.” [bottom slide 11]
“Sandjet in Lithuania, for example, 10 years ago, they perforated a zone… that had been perforated with guns, it flowed 0.9 bopd [due to] formation damage. Sandjet came in, [and it flowed at] 917 bopd. So you can see the kind of uplift, proven uplift that you’re getting with Sandjet. This isn’t factored into our test results, or flow rates, or what we expect, but it’s a potential upside that will be a gift to us if it obviously transpires that it works in this way… which it will!” [slide 12]
“We’re in a very good area for the potential CNG development, there’s no major environmental issues, we’re right next to a highway. And then the real bonus, which is the eye-catching bonus, is when we sampled the gases when we were drilling MOU-3, we did some work recently and it’s biogenic gas, it’s up to 99.57% pure methane. Perfect for CNG, perfect for what we want, very little processing.”
“And just to put it in context, you might not know too much about biogenic gas, but 20% of the world’s gas reserves are biogenic gas. The biggest gas fields offshore eastern Mediterranean, including offshore Greece and further east are from biogenic gas fields. So it’s a great asset to have in this particular basin. And recently we’ve just completed an analysis of what could be generated in our area here of about 100km2 where we think all the potential lies, and that comes out as 7Tcf. And that is not a big number for biogenic gas. Biogenic gas will generate huge volumes of gas, so we know we have the potential not only to fill our traps but to fill any other traps that are developed.”
(cont...)
“In Ireland, we don’t forget about Ireland, because the department there have 17 days until the end of Q1 to come back to us... with an answer for us on the licences by the end of Q1. So I’m not holding my breath but it’s at least encouraging to have the language in an email from them saying this is our “immediate priority”. I’ve never heard that from them before in 5 years and neither have our Corrib potential farminee heard that in 5 years.”
“And in 5 years we’ve proved up a world-class asset both for biogenic gas and for Jurassic. So I’m not going to make any apologies about delays and scheduling or whatever, we have a path here to developing a world-class asset that will be very, very saleable in a very, very benign tax regime.”
“Our focus for the testing programme are these middle sands because they can deliver at the highest rates and are easier to get through the formation damage which I’ll come on to. And that’s the 120Bcf we’re talking about, potential.”
“[re formation damage]… It’s very common all around the world so it’s no big surprise and you can get through the formation damage either with bigger perforating guns or Sandjet.”
“So we’re very confident that we have gas, we have 30,000ppm gas show for example in this Ma sand, we have 60-odd% / 70% gas saturation, we have every single attribute that supports the gas. What we don’t have is the flow rate yet from the well.”
“And we’ve compared this with the LAM-1 well in the Rharb basin which had a similar problem, it was over-balanced drilled, and one sand there, 1m thick, flowed 2mmcfgpd and had an open hole capacity of 10mmcfgpd with bigger guns perforating it through the formation damage. So it can be done, it’s not a big insurmountable issue.”
“To put it in perspective, when we drilled our last well we had to go to 18 different countries to get all the equipment we needed for that well. Morocco has no infrastructure service industry, unlike Trinidad, so everything you get virtually has to be imported and that creates a huge logistical issue. So we’ve drilled 4 wells and we’ve done that and we’ve overcome each logistical issue and we’ve done it on budget and within a time-frame and we have discovered gas.”
“So Sandjet is our preferred option because it can get 60 inches into the formation.”
“So the other thing is that we managed to do a perforating programme under budget, given the conditions that we were faced with, force 7 or 8 winds in Guercif, heavy rain… So even despite all that, we managed the operation very efficiently, within budget, and collected information we need on the depth of the formation damage. So no big deal, nothing to get into a panic about in terms of what we’re trying to achieve here.”
(cont...)
Morning all,
I’ve drafted up a transcript of Paul’s Proactive presentation. It’s a fairly lengthy document (8 pages) so, rather than completely block up the bb by posting it all, I’ve made it available via this link: (hopefully you can all access it OK?)
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/74w8ol699sni3zoiwaxaj/PRD-Proactive-Presentation-TRANSCRIPT-MAR-24.pdf?rlkey=ux8tvjba5wql6es9flfsmb9g7&dl=0
I also think it’s worth highlighting a few specific things that Paul talked about: (And sorry, even the highlights are pretty lengthy!)
“Lonny’s actually in Trinidad… but I’m happy to say, as of this morning, he’s found lots of wellheads for us in the right place, and very interesting wellheads particularly in relation to the extension of the Moruga West field into our block.”
“[re MOU-5]… it actually is mentioned in the presentation, we didn’t feel we need to over-emphasise it because we said in February exactly what we were going to do with MOU-5, exactly when we were going to drill it, it’s all there and nothing has changed.”
“… this presentation is focused on what our shareholders are interested in, and that’s the testing programme in Morocco, the testing in Guercif, that will potentially with Sandjet unlock 120Bcf or $1.56 billion of immediate revenues in the next 18 months, not in the next 5 years, in the next 18 months.”
“To put it in a geological context... it’s very similar to the eastern Mediterranean in Greece and the extreme eastern Mediterranean and the biogenic gas discoveries, the huge biogenic gas discoveries that have been made.”
“So, on the right hand side, you can see the value chain for spending about $1million on the Sandjet testing, we can create that $1.56billion of gross revenues, we have 75% of that, and then you’ve got to factor in taxes etc. But that is still a massive uplift to our current share price and achievable within the next few months.”
“We’re building an oil and gas company, we’re not building a liquidity market for people to trade in us, that’s great that they can do that but that is not the tail wagging the dog, we have a project to deliver and we will deliver that project.”
“The bottom right hand corner, I own 8% of the company. So, in real terms, that’s like at current price 26-times my annual director’s fee. So if you think I’m going to jeopardise the value of the company for my annual director’s fee, well think again.”
“So this year we’ve applied for another extension to June 5th. That’s gone in and been all approved by ONHYM, it’s actually with the Ministry now and we expect a joint ministerial approval within the next 3 or 4 weeks. So the whole process is now running very smoothly… So we’re very happy with the regulatory process in Morocco.”
(cont...)
Androcles,
Tbh, I’m as intrigued by that question as you are! (And it’ll be a nice situation to be in, of course.)
If I remember it correctly, GRH has said for some time (going back at least a few years) that he expected the stub equity / royalty payments to make up a significant % of the total shareholder returns and that he also expected to never have to sell a single share in PRD in order to realise these gains. So I think that, with Paul having now discussed on record the sheer scale of the assets in Morocco, it’s becoming much clearer how important any future payments from royalties etc will be.
And, of course, the promise of future payments from ongoing gas (and condensate / oil) sales should also be reflected via significant share price appreciation (DCFs), offering the option for shareholders to crystallise this value sooner via capital gains if they so wish.
As you say, by that time we’ll no longer be the operator which I think highlights the importance of selling to the best possible purchaser. And by ‘best’ I don’t just mean the company that pays the highest initial upfront payment, but that which will act as a responsible steward of the licence going forward so that we can all optimally benefit for many years (decades?) to come.
Not jumping the gun, of course, let’s wait for the flow test results first and go from there. However, if upcoming testing + drilling (MOU-5) goes as well as we all hope, then I’m very confident that Paul will negotiate the best possible deal for all shareholders (which, as we know, includes himself).
MEM,
If my reading of Keith’s post from yesterday is correct, the 7Tcf that Paul mentioned refers only to the biogenic gas in the Tertiary i.e. the ~100km2 closure covered by MOU 1-4, with the potential for very significant upside.
As for the thermogenic gas in the Jurassic, 50m would give us 3P 637Bcf + 79M bbls condensate. Since we’re drilling 249m of reservoir there’s clearly also multi-Tcf potential there too.
I’ll definitely add my thanks, as ever, to Keith for his invaluable insights. As Keith says, the market clearly hasn’t yet grasped the huge significance of what Paul said on Thursday night. (7Tcf potential for starters, at net-backs $6.345M per Bcf (CNG) or $2M per Bcf (G2P)… all for less than £50M Mcap!🤔)
Just to add…
My pal who works in the O&G industry was in attendance at Thursday’s meeting which was the first time he’d heard Paul talk in person. I won’t relay everything he said but his overall impression was very positive, in particular:
• That Paul came across as very open and honest, technically extremely proficient, and instilled a huge amount of confidence that he will see this through to a successful conclusion. [Which he says isn’t often the case for CEO’s of small E&P companies.]
• That the amount and depth of technical detail in the slides, and discussed during the evening, was comparable to what he would expect at any presentation at his place of work.
• My pal’s main residual concern was about the use of Sand Jet as it’s not typically (if ever) used in reservoirs like we have at Guercif. However, after listening to Paul explain the rationale and merits of Sand Jet, his concerns have been significantly allayed and he’s confident that commercial flows should be achieved. (But also pleased that Paul has a viable back-up plan (i.e. bigger perf guns) just in case there are any issues.)
So from all that I’ve been told personally, and also from the feedback that others have kindly posted (many thanks to you all), I remain very comfortable with my decent-sized holding in PRD and extremely confident that Paul and Lonny are truly exceptional people (and that I’m just very fortunate to be able to hang onto their coattails!).
Interesting that Paul has chosen to show a schematic the Sangomar oilfield offshore Senegal in reference to the scale of Guercif (slide 1).
A bit of info on Sangomar:
https://www.offshore-technology.com/projects/sne-deepwater-oil-field/?cf-view&cf-closed
“The Sangomar (formerly SNE Deepwater) oil field is located in the Rufisque, Sangomar and Sangomar Deep Blocks, which cover a combined area of 7,490km² within the Senegalese portion of the Mauritania-Senegal-Guinea Bissau Basin. The field was one of the world’s largest oilfields in 2014.”
“The total recoverable oil resources are estimated to be around 500MMbbl over the life of the field.”
“The contingent recoverable resources from the field were estimated to be 1C, 2C and 3C of 346 million metric barrels (MMbbl), 563MMbbl, and 998MMbbl respectively.”
Presumably, as Paul is making this comparison, he must be fairly confident that we’re dealing with something of similar scale (if not more so) at Guercif.
In addition to what you’ve posted, Keith, the subsequent CEG RNS of 30/8/23 stated:
“Pursuant to this collaboration agreement…. the parties HAVE PROGRESSED DISCUSSIONS seeking to re-establish partnering arrangements in relation to other assets, including in particular a potential joint-venture or ACQUISITION of the Inniss-Trinity field - further announcements will be made as appropriate.” (my emphasis)
It’s the very specific mention of an “acquisition of the Inniss-Trinity field” that’s always intrigued me and clearly discussions on this were progressing as of the end of August. (Of note, PRD’s RNS on the same day mentioned only JVs so I wonder if CEG inadvertently let the cat out of the bag?)
I’d always presumed that nothing would happen until CEG’s farm-out in Uruguay but now that’s been announced hopefully the door’s open for a deal. At the very least, I’m sure Paul and Eytan will be meeting up for coffee again before the Proactive presentation next week… perhaps to dot the i’s and cross the t’s on a deal?
Hi Keith,
I’ve been pondering that for a while now, and I think what you suggest in your last paragraph would be the preferable outcome for both parties.
Eytan did a series of interviews / presentations last summer and it was clear that their T&T assets (mainly Goudron and I-T) were breaking even at best and that the chance of CEG being able to turn a profit from these old fields (without EOR) was pretty unlikely. Eytan’s also previously mentioned the option for CEG to acquire assets onshore Uruguay and I got the feeling that he’d much prefer to focus his attention there rather than T&T (let’s face it, CEG’s acquisition of the old Columbus assets has been pretty much a disaster).
There’s always the option of a JV between PRD and CEG as you suggest but, after the actions of CEG relating to prematurely terminating the CO2 EOR project at I-T, I’d suspect that Paul would much prefer to have full operational control and not have to be working with a team he can’t trust (however much the talk is of everyone being friends again!).
We know I-T is an ideal candidate for CO2 EOR and that Goudron would also benefit from EOR (link below) so PRD adding these assets to Cory Moruga may make a very nice portfolio in T&T and allow us to, at last, progress our CO2 EOR technology. And there’s nothing to stop PRD and CEG doing a deal in principle now, with completion subject to formal confirmation of the Chevron / CEG deal in Uruguay later in the year, a timeline which may fit in nicely with Paul’s plans for T&T after we’ve exited Morocco.
https://energy-oil-gas.com/news/lgo-energy-plc/
“In keeping with most oil fields onshore in Trinidad, Goudron has low reservoir energy and no active aquifer drive. Consequently primary production is estimated to be limited to less than ten per cent of the oil in place and an enhanced oil recovery (EOR) project is needed to recover more of the oil in the field. In the case of Goudron, which has very light, good quality oil (37-38 degree API), a waterflood is the most likely EOR method and a pilot project is to be started in 2017. Once the pilot is completed a larger scheme designed to recover approximately 25 million – 60 million barrels of oil will be planned”
I think it’s also worth highlighting the quotes on the bottom of slide 12 of the Europa presentation:
“We in Ireland are going to need natural gas until at least 2050, if not beyond then.” Leo Varadkar – Oct 2023
“Irish governments don’t break contracts. If you start doing that, it makes everything more expensive and difficult for everyone, because who would trust the government?” Eamon Ryan – Feb 2024 (said in response to a question asking about the FEL 4/19 licence extension where he stated that under the existing FEL 4/19 contract the licence extension had to be granted.)
As we know, we’ve already fulfilled all the requirements for the SA to be granted:
“On 1st April 2022 the Company was sent correspondence from the Geoscience Regulation Office ("GSRO") of the Department of the Environment, Climate and Communications ("DECC") stating that prior to concluding its assessment of the Company's applications for successor authorisations to the Corrib South Licensing Option 16/26 and Licensing Option 16/30 Ram Head, the GSRO required one additional piece of supporting information. The DECC confirmed that it was not seeking any information in addition to that requested above. The information was relayed to the GSRO and an acknowledgement receipt was received by the Company on 19th April 2022.” [RNS 12/5/22]
There was more info on this in the TRACS CPR p47 (p141 of the prospectus) published last August:
https://wp-predatoroilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2023/08/20230810-Project-Allossaurus-Prospectus-FINAL.pdf
“March 2022: Predator required to provide further information about financial capabilities and funding arrangements (LO 16/26 and LO 16/30). This information was provided and receipt acknowledged.”
“TRACS does not consider that there is any technical or financial reason that the SEL would not be granted. It is TRACS’s understanding that the work programme and demonstration that funding would be available to support Successor Exploration Licences for Licensing Options 16/26 and 16/30 have been fulfilled to a point which is acceptable to the Minister. TRACS understands that Predator has satisfied all regulatory requirements for the award of the successor authorisations.”
PT,
As per Tritoretire's post, the data room for Corrib South was set up despite the lack of certainty on the SA being granted. This was also confirmed in the 2022 AR (p12):
"Towards the end of 2022 the Company received an unsolicited approach from an existing gas producer in Ireland in respect of its Corrib South successor authorisation. A Confidentiality Agreement was entered into, and a Data Room was set up."
Presumably Paul thought the £100k would be money well spent, and we should find out pretty soon if he was correct or not.
Tritoretire,
Definitely agree that it’s likely most of the DD will have already been done. Assuming it’s Vermilion*, it’s clear that they made the initial, unsolicited approach to PRD about CS in response to which we then opened a data room and presumably, as Paul very recently said that he’s ‘cautiously optimistic’ of securing a partner, Vermilion liked what they saw and are still very much interested in a deal.
[*Let’s face it, there’s really no other player in town considering the chance of any company wanting new-country entry into Ireland is slim to non-existent in the current operating environment.]
In contrast, the fact that Europa are still looking for a partner despite seismic reinterpretation and having a data room open last year would suggest that Vermilion will have also reviewed Inishkea West but passed.
For those that may not have seen it, slide 12 in Europa’s presentation from the other day is a timely reminder of the predicted decline in the Corrib field over the coming years and therefore Ireland’s increasing requirement for imported gas from the UK (high carbon, including fracked gas). It also shows the significant ullage within the Bellanaboy Terminal that I’m sure we’d be more than happy to help fill with gas from CS!
https://www.europaoil.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/20240227-LSE-Webinar-1.pdf
Morning all,
As it’s now March, just a few thoughts about Ireland…
From 26th Jan RNS:
“The Company has received since its last operations update a communication from the GeoScience Regulation Office ("GSRO") at the Department of the Environment, Climate and Communications informing the Company that consideration of its application for a successor authorisation to Licensing Option 16/26 Corrib South is hoped to be CONCLUDED DURING Q1 2024 and that the GSRO would be WRITING TO THE COMPANY SHORTLY in relation to this matter.”
Things also look pretty positive from the point of view of attracting a farm-our partner should the SA be granted:
“Following an UNSOLICITED APPROACH in relation to Corrib South from a POTENTIAL STRATEGIC PARTNER OF SUBSTANCE…” [Interims, 19/9/23], and
“We remain CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC that we potentially have a partner for Corrib South in the event a successor authorisation is awarded.” [RNS 26/1/24]
[all emphasis my own]
I’ve just been listening to EOG’s most recent presentation and I think the final question (from 27m35s) highlights a very important difference between ours and EOG’s farm-out potential. Will Holland talks about the difficult operating environment in Ireland and therefore the challenge of attracting a company to ENTER the country and, IMO, he doesn’t sound overly confident of being able to close out a good deal:
“That’s the challenge we’ve got, to attract someone to come into Ireland where historically it’s been viewed as potentially not a hospitable operating environment...”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXE2Rn9mv9U
In contrast to this, PRD has already had an unsolicited approach (even before opening a data room) which I think we all suspect is from Vermilion (already in-country). Presumably, Vermilion will have also reviewed EOG’s Innishkea West prospect and yet they appear to strongly favour Corrib South which is clearly very important third party validation of the technical merits of CS (and likely Paul’s long history and reputational standing in Ireland too).
As per our recent RNS, there’s no guarantee that the GSRO will respond positively although I think it’s worth keeping in mind that even a negative outcome could potentially lead to some action on our part, as per the 2022 Annual Report (p41):
“However during 2023 the Company will review the prospect of any progress in Ireland in the near-term, an outcome of which may be to seek to investigate the potential for redress given the irregularities and anticompetitive nature of the regulatory process surrounding the applications for successor authorisations.”
I think we’d all prefer the SA to be granted and a deal done with Vermilion to progress CS asap but it’s good that Paul is keeping all options on the table in terms of monetising our Irish assets, and we should know one way or another within the next 4 weeks.
* nitrogen LIFT
(cont... 2/2)
Saying all this, from all the data we’ve been given to date, the odds are that the wells will flow and we know that the threshold for commerciality is very low (1-3mmcfgpd). And we also know that there’s a significant degree of diversification within the PRD portfolio that increases the ultimate likelihood of a commercial business, be that the different play types at Guercif, or our assets in T&T and Ireland. It’s this relative degree of downside protection from our wide range of high-quality assets, combined with our superb management team, which makes me personally comfortable having a reasonably high holding in PRD.
I hope some of this information is of interest and, for clarity, this post isn’t intended to be negative but simply a balanced view of the current state of play from someone with real-world experience of well testing. Of note, my pal’s favourite phrase, based on their extensive industry experience, is ‘reality check’ and this is something that I always try to keep in the forefront of my mind when assessing the levels of risk / reward.
Morning all,
I’ve mentioned before that I’m fortunate to have a pal who has extensive industry experience with well testing, and my discussions with them have been extremely helpful in allowing me to better understand the perforating and testing process and, most importantly, the risks involved.
In light of the recent RNS and the upcoming P2 Sand Jet testing programme, and further to some of the posts on here, I thought I’d share with you some of the matters that have been mentioned to me.
Firstly, and I can’t stress this enough, risks do certainly still exist. We all hope that Guercif will flow gas at commercial rates but this is far from guaranteed. My pal has been involved in many well tests in their career where the subsurface and WL logs look superb but, for a variety of reasons, the wells have failed to flow. Mention has also been made of a huge amount of global resources that have been discovered over the years that have never been developed due to problems proving commerciality.
In theory, Sand Jet should work well and be able to penetrate beyond the formation damage. But reality doesn’t always match with the theory, so there are risks that Sand Jet won’t work. From the discussions I’ve been having, Sand Jet is primarily used onshore US in tight reservoirs that will be subsequently fracked, so it’s not reliable to simply extrapolate such data to our reservoirs in Guercif.
Saying that, there are a number of different options available for overcoming formation damage and the key is to have planned in advance for all eventualities. I’m sure Paul, Lonny and Moyra will have done this, and will have taken expert advice as necessary (enquiring about this might be a good question to ask at the upcoming meeting for anyone who’s attending?). Options that have been mentioned to me include acid wash + acid squeeze with subsequent nitrogen life to kick the reservoir into life, but without seeing the actual data it’s not possible to tell which remedial action would work best. Alternatively, there’s always the option to drill a new development well that would be optimised for specific reservoirs and designed to mitigate formation damage but, of course, there would be additional costs involved here.
So it’s clear that the company has plenty of options to optimise the chance of commercial flow rates. But I will stress again, there cannot be a 100% guarantee that any of these will work.
Finally, as a general point, the on-the-ground experience of my pal is that most wells that do flow gas (or oil) do so at, or indeed often below, their expected flow rates. Again, wells can look like they’ll be absolute gushers but, unfortunately, the hard reality is often somewhat more disappointing.
(cont... 1/2)
Morning CCC,
I’m so sorry to hear of your family’s health issues.
I’ll keep this brief but, as I’ve mentioned on here before, my background is in medicine and I wonder if I may be able to help at all?
I actually have a related condition to your daughter’s (though clearly nowhere near as severe) so am aware of CCI. It sounds like you’re already very knowledgeable on the treatment options (and that the expertise in this field is mainly overseas) but we may still find it helpful to share some info?
I’d also have a few ideas on how to hopefully optimise your wife’s health too.
As a general point, western medicine is often somewhat limited in its outlook and relies principally on standard treatment algorithms that are primarily aimed at symptom suppression; such treatments are often of only limited (if any) benefit as they unfortunately fail to identify and treat the underlying root cause of disease. In addition, there are often fairly simple and safe lifestyle measures that all patients can undertake that can lead to truly dramatic health improvements (often when western medicine has suggested there’s little more that can be done) – I’ve seen such improvements in many people over the years, some of which have been genuinely life-changing.
If you think that us being in touch may be of any help, then please just drop me a message (email below - it’s my back-up email so I’ll reply via a different account).
ATVB
Chris
c j r a 99 at gmail dot com
(no spaces)
acottyyyyyy,
keith posted this last month re his estimate of the potential value of corrib s, assuming the sa is granted and we get a partner (likely vermilion). see post 26/1/24 @23.30:
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/keithoz/?page=4
[it’s worth noting that the 2023 tracs cpr is more conservative in its estimates of prospective resources]
paul’s also specifically discussed the potential value in ireland on a couple of occasions and has mentioned much higher valuations:
https://*************.net/interview-predator-oil-gas-holdings-positive-results-but-corrib-south-could-dwarf-everything
“corrib south, if successful, could feed gas into the corrib infrastructure by 2022, there is no other gas project off-shore ireland that can compete with this timeline. so, that, again, puts us in a very strong position to develop irish gas but in the high estimate case, corrib south could create £3.5 billion to £4 billion worth of gross revenues even at a very conservative gas price, approximately 75% of today’s gas price.” [nbp was ~55p/therm at the time]
https://youtu.be/y4statme2z8?si=ljgy567it82vdevz (from 8m55s)
“so, at today’s prices, i think it was 152p/therm today… we have two successor authorisations at ram head and corrib south which contain indigenous gas, the maximum high case value at today’s prices of the reserves in the ground that are yet to be produced or yet to be de-risked is something in the order of €130bn. so it kind of puts it into perspective as [to] what’s at stake here with these escalating prices, the cost and the value of these assets is going up and up and up…”
overall, my feeling is that the market is currently valuing our irish assets at zero, so even if you significantly discount keith’s estimate of 25pps there’s clear value to be had – potentially, this could underpin the whole of the current market cap, meaning morocco and t&t would essentially be in the price for free.