Member Info for Billyboy2fromiii

Hi Kalan,

Thank you for reply, I see where you are coming from now.

Going back to my original post.....
If 17,000 tonnes are being added to stockpile every month (204,000 annual), this will partly offset the projected processing of the 1.7m current stockpile which will, in effect, mean we will be reducing stockpile by approx 396,000 tonnes per annum (50,000 x 12 = 600,000 less 204,000) . Therefore we should have approx four yrs three/four months worth of feed for which we will receive 100% of the PGMs, for the upfront cost of $5.1m. Sounds good to me!!!

BB2

Hi Kalan,

I appreciate your figures are only a guesstimate but could you explain your working please. I cannot see how you are working this out and would like to check your thoughts.
Thank you for your earlier reply.

Regards, BB2.

Hi,

Just want to check my understanding of yesterdays RNS.

We now own 1.7m tonnes of unprocessed tailings.
Hernic are adding 17,000 tonnes per month to this unprocessed stockpile.
We have processing capacity of 55,000 tonnes per month from this stockpile.
Can I ask how much we are currently processing? The last statement on RNS says..................

In addition, Jubilee has increased the scope of its Hernic operations to take control of the re-mining of tailings to control the feed supply of its Hernic Operations, targeting to increase feed rate to 50,000 tonnes per month..................

which suggests we are currently processing less than 50,000 tonnes per month and hence less than our stated 55,000 per month capacity.

In addition, can I ask what is the relevance of the stated 630,000 tonnes of previously processed tailings ???????

Great news yesterday, I am now trying to really understand the possible impact upon future production rates etc....

Many thanks, BB2

Hi again,

My calculations in last post are well short of the quoted September earnings of £1.41m. I appreciate that Septmber would have been a record but anywhere near an annualised figure of this month would be rather nice indeed!!!!

BB2

Hi,

Can anyone tell me the approx amount we receive for our produced concentrate compared to the current refined price of approx $920 per oz?

The latest cost per oz (30/06) was stated as $412.

Basically, trying to work out approx profit margin on the proposed 30,000 oz per annum.

Working on 30,000 oz, assuming 85% for concentrate, revenue would be $23.46m and profit $11.1m. is that correct ????????

Any thoughts?

Regards, BB2.

Hi,

The Q2 update said 3,500 oz inventory worth approx $5m, equating to $1,428 per oz
The Q3 update said 2,800 oz inventory woth approx $4m, equating to $1,428 per oz.

My calculations show July avg spot price $1,420, Aug avg spot price $1,507, Sept avg spot price $1,505, therefore avg spot price for Q3 $1,477. The 3,500 inventory at start of month could have been sold early in Q when price was below Q average.

Regards, BB

Hi,

The Q2

Hi,

POG have also released Q3 figures today........

Q3 2019 average realised gold price of US$1,388/oz (Q3 2018: US$1,228/oz), including an US$(89)/oz hedging effect.........

Regards, BB

Hi,

AAZ released their Q3 (to 30th Sept) results last week...............

Significant increase in average price of gold bullion sold in Q3 2019 to $1,513 per ounce (H1 2019: $1,319 per ounce).......

Interesting what figure HUM achieved for Q3.

regards, BB

Hi,

I am considering an initial investment here as would like to add exposure to some gold producers, in addition to HUM . Could any of the LTH here please tell me their thoughts on the funding of the capex for Coringa, assuming permits etc all ok. Where can I find the anticipated timeline for construction through to production.

Many thanks, BB.

WTO

Thank you for your reply.

Yes, to achieve 110,000 oz for 2019, we will need 58,727oz for Q3&4 combined. So bearing in mind the rainy season, I am guessing about 25k Q3 and 33k Q4. Aug and Sept, gold price has been largely above $1,500 so should be ok for Q3 avg price of about $1,450 so a margin of about $450 to $500.

I was looking ahead at the possibility of any possible dividends in a two or three years when the loans are paid off. Hence, my concern at the effect of amort and dep on the net profit figure going forward.

Regards,

BB2

Hi Guys,

Can anyone tell me what net profit figure they are expecting if we come in within production guidance at say 110k oz. for the year ending Dec 19?

There seems to be a very high "amortization and depreciation" figure of $17.8m for six months to 30th June 19 and $19.8m for 12 months to 31st Dec 18. This deduction has had a big impact being deducted from revenue and obviously filters through to lower gross profit/net profit. Please can anyone shed light on this for me please.

Regards,

BB2

Hi Kalan,

Has the DCM PGM split changed. Bullster on the other site says it was previously stated as 100% and now changed to 67% JLP after capex paid back. Without checking notes, I cannot remember the 100% from before. Can you?

At 67%, it suggests $22m profit to JLP (after capex) from the 74k oz PGM, assuming current pricing of course.

Regards, BB2

Hi BB,

The Shard broker note in March showed late 2020 for DCM PGM so no news imo. The updated presentation states "awaiting approvals" so I assume we will get news when approved and then construction will then begin. Obviously not a big operation (as per Kalan's reference last night) with 74k oz 4E PGM. Still good to get it on board though.

BB2

Hi BB,

It would be interesting if anyone has done their own research figures for revenue and net profit for FY2020 and FY 2021. My expected revenue for FY2019 is £23m which is £7m short of the Shard figure stated in March.

The stated revenue for FY2020 and FY 2021 at £104m and £197m seems high to me.

One possible concern to me that I would like to understand more is the terms of the terms of the project loan provided by ACAM for Kabwe..........

At any time that the loan is outstanding, ACAM may at its absolute discretion, by conversion notice, elect to convert the loan and all accrued but unpaid interest into 5 per cent unsecured convertible loan notes with a conversion price of 2.81 pence (ZAR 53.98 cents) ("Subscription Price") and a maturity date which falls on the third anniversary of the Closing Date...........

This seems to suggest that rather than have the loan repaid plus interest, ACAM could convert to shares at 2.81p. A higher share price over the next 30 months would obviously make this option more likely imo. Can anyone please explain what exactly this means. Would ACAM have to actually pay 2.81p per share to convert or would they be received them "freebie in lieu of the loan repayment by JLP" ???

Thanks in advance,

BB2

BB.

I am expecting revenue FY19 (30/06/19) to be approx £23m.

The Broker note in March forecasted FY20 revenue of £104m (net profit £17m) and FY21 revenue of £197m (net profit £41m).

Using SLP as a guide, (FY19 $70m revenue and $18m net profit), mcap £113 (7.8 times), JLP sp for 2020 would be 7.1p and 2021 would be 17p.

Interested in your thoughts.

BB

Hi,

I am trying to post a message but it wont show up. Is there a delay on posting or other issues currently?

Regards, Billy.

nm

Hi,

Goldman Sachs has lifted its 12 month nickel price forecast to $22,000/t as supply woes continue....

https://smallcaps.com.au/goldman-sachs-lifts-nickel-price-forecast-supply-woes-continue/

Regards,
BB

Bob,

Here is the info re the VWAP.....

A Reference Price ("Reference Price") will be calculated equal to the average VWAP of the 20 trading days immediately prior to the date of the further advance. Where the Company has elected not to repay an installment and the Investors have elected to convert, the conversion price will be the lower of 130 per cent of the Reference Price (the "Fixed Conversion Price"), and 90 per cent of the lowest daily VWAP over the five trading days immediately prior to conversion. The Investors shall have the right to convert each advance at any time at the Fixed Conversion Price........

My calculations show from the original balance of $1.847m ($1.2m refinanced, $0.5m further adv, $0,147k fee) the amount currently converted is approx $0.775m ($100k, $100k, $100k, $200k, $275k). So approx $1.07m plus interest outstanding.

Regards, BB