Member Info for Billyboy2fromiii

Pablo,

Without doubt that was the Company's intention.

However, for whatever reason which I do not know, on the London Stock Exchange the shares went XC today which is the issue. The nominees will not distribute the shares as the Company intended as they will follow LSE rules and distribute out as per holdings at close last night not close on 19th. That is exactly what HL have stated they are going to do!

BB2.

Hi Chirpy,

If the Keras shares went XC yesterday then holders as at close on 19th would have received the Calidus shares but it didn't. It went XC today and thus hoders as at last night receive the Calidus shares.

Take a look at Bassguy's comment. He bought more yesterday and has received Calidus shares for his increased holding as at last night.
BB2.

Hi Chirpy,
XD is irrelevant but Keras only went XC (ex capitalisation) as at close last night/start of trading today.
Regards, BB2.

Ripley,

If you google London Stock Exchange and search Keras and look under special conditions that shows the Keras shares are now XC which HL are saying changed as at close last night/open this morning.

BB2

Chirpy,

Have you checked with your broker ? I thought you said yesterday that you sold 10m shares "at the off"??

Regards, BB2

Hi,

On the basis that the shares went XC today, then HL appear to be legally correct. It seems that what was meant to happen (distribution based on the record date ) will NOT happen as LSE rules (XC date) will apply rather than Keras's intended date (record date) . HL have specifically told me they will be giving the Calidus shares to the purchaser yesterday and NOT the holder as at 6pm on 19th.

BB2.

Hi,

I have spoken to HL who say that the Keras shares only went XC on the London Stock Exchange this morning and whoever held Keras shares as at close of business LAST NIGHT will be the holder that will be entitled to keep the Calidus shares. They say that that as far as LSE rules are concerned it is the XC date and not the Record date that determines the holder entitled to the Calidus shares. As far as HL are concerned, it you sold Keras yesterday you have given up the entitlement to the Calidus shares and these will be passed to the purchaser of the Keras shares yesterday.

I have spoken to the Broker/Adviser for KRS who states the Corporate Document on the Keras Website states that the Keras shareholder on the record date would be entitled to the Calidus share distribution and that was obviously the intention of Keras. He has said he is going to speak to RL and the legal team at KRS about this.

However, as things currently stand HL are adamant that if you sold Keras shares yesterday then you will NOT receive the Calidus shares.

The problem appears to be that, for whatever, reason the XC date for Keras on the LSE was 21 Nov rather than 20 Nov.

BB2.

Hi,

For anyone using HL as their nominee....

Hargreaves Lansdown have told me today that the Calidus Shares should show on clients accounts from approx 25th Nov. The shares will be able to be traded but through HSBC with an additional charge payable.

Regards, BB2.

Hi Chirpy,

My notes that I made from the investor evening stated 24/36 month offtake and loan.
I also came away expecting some sort of placing once the Calidus issue was sorted?

Just my notes and understanding which may be incorrect.

Hi,

Can any genuine LTH please tell me what I am missing here....

My research shows that docs still awaiting re the Exploration permit.
Placing potentially required in short term.
Once ex permit completed, production starts with current avg price of $2.61 compared to cost price of approx $3.2. DFS figures based upon $4.5 to achieve
Loan potentially needed to increase production in 2020.

I am aware that costs are bottom quartile and the current avg price bounced off a low of $2.52 this week.

I see some here are suggesting a mkt cap equating to £50m (before any dilution)???

Regards, BB2

Hi TT,
Thank you for taking the time to compare and post. I will have a look at your figures in detail over the next couple of days and come back to you with any input. Encouraging that our figures (esp earnings) are very close. I would really like to "get under the bonnet" on this and have some questions to ask at/after the agm to try and get a fuller picture on some of the workings of some of these projects.

On another matter, did you read the section in the annual report where it breaks down the shareholders holdings etc. Founds that quite interesting!

Regards, BB2.

Hi,

I am thinking of buying in here. Existing holder of HUM.

What are your thought regarding the future plans here. Is is it drill and then get mineral resource statement (how much £ required timescales?) with a view to a takeover. Or is it the intention to try and develop a mine and go it alone (any idea on funds required for this option).

I am currently researching but any additional thoughts are very welcome. I notice that some of you are also in HUM.

Regards, BB2.

Hi,

Based upon my earlier posts, adding the project revenue together and the project earnings together

my 2019/2020 revenue projection is between £60m (17.5, 19.8, 12.9, 4.2 and 5.6) and 61.4m (18.1, 19.8, 12.9, 4.2 and 6.4)

my 2019/2020 earnings projection is between £24.7m (9.1, 6.9, 2.7, 0.4 and 5.6) and £27.4m (9.4, 6.9, 4.3, 0.4 and 6.4), NOT accounting for the higher Shard figure on Inyoni chrome.

I am interested if anyone can help me with any errors or input etc.

Regards, BB2.

Edzi,

I have been meaning to do some calculations for a while but wanted to wait for the results. Not sure how accurate my figure are but it hopefully is a starting point for other to discuss and add comment to.

Regards, BB2.

Following last weeks results, I am trying to piece together the JLP jigsaw and do a revenue/earnings forecast for y/e 30th June 2020. As Shard recently stated it is not easy. Regarding Inyoni chrome;

July 18 to June 19 production of chrome concentrate went back to Hernic with £0 to Jubilee.
July 19 to November 19 same as above.
Following the Chrome deal in November, Jubilee will now receive 100% of the £ revenue.

As previous production unknown, assuming nameplate capacity of 50,000 tpm (600,000 tpa) , 22%-25% recovery equates to 132,000 -150,000 tpa.

Page 9 of the annual report states £43 per chrome ton of revenue, £34 per chrome oz cost, £9 per chrome ton profit.

Using the stated £43 per chrome ton REVENUE this gives a projected 19/20 figure of £5,676,00- £6,450,000. As most of the chrome production costs have already been accounted for in the PGM production costs, there is very little to come off the revenue figure and most of it goes straight to earnings.

This is based upon my own calculations and please correct me if I have my any obvious errors or anyone wants to add additional thoughts to this. My revenue figure is approx half of Shard's approximate $13.5m (based upon 12,500 tpm assuming 25% recovery from 50,000t feed). This seems to be because they are using a higher chrome price of $90 per tonne which is well above the £43 per tonne that I am using from the annual accounts. On that basis, my earnings figure is probably inaccurate. I cannot understand where I have miscalculated. ANY HELP ON THIS PLEASE ????????.

100% of earnings from Inyoni chrome goes to Jubilee.

I will look at the other projects separately.

Regards, BB2.

Following last weeks results, I am trying to piece together the JLP jigsaw and do a revenue/earnings forecast for y/e 30th June 2020. As Shard recently stated it is not easy. Regarding DCM chrome;

July 18 to Sept 18 production 8,053t, loss £288,000.
Oct 18 to Dec 18 production 8,958t , loss £247,000.
Fine chrome production started Jan 19 and ramped up from April 19 to June 19, production for Jan 19 to June 19 was, I understand, 15,663t, revenue and earnings I cannot find but stated to be generating profit from July 19?

Page 9 of the annual report states £43 per chrome ton of revenue, £34 per chrome oz cost, £9 per chrome ton profit.

Assuming target production of 8,000 t per month (96,000t pa)

Using the stated £43 per chrome ton REVENUE this gives a projected 19/20 figure of £4,218,000
Using the stated £9 per chrome ton PROFIT (EARNINGS) this gives a projected 19/20 figure of £864,000.

DCM chrome is, I understand, split 50/50 earnings to Jubilee of £432,000.

This is based upon my own calculations and please correct me if I have my any obvious errors or anyone wants to add additional thoughts to this.

I will look at the other projects separately.

Regards, BB2.

Following last weeks results, I am trying to piece together the JLP jigsaw and do a revenue/earnings forecast for y/e 30th June 2020. As Shard recently stated it is not easy. Regarding Windsor chrome;

Y/E June 2019 produced 149,273 tonnes chrome concentrate. This was only for the period Jan 19 to June 19.
Page 9 of the annual report however states £43 per chrome ton of revenue, £34 per chrome oz cost, £9 per chrome ton profit.

149,273 tonnes for the Jan 19 to Jun 19 is very close to the targeted 300,000 per annum ton.
So I will assume 300,000 chrome concentrate production for July 19 to June 20.

Using the stated £43 per chrome ton REVENUE this gives a projected 19/20 figure of £12,900,000.
Using the stated £9 per chrome ton PROFIT (EARNINGS) this gives a projected 19/20 figure of £2,700,000. This is below the stated £4,300,000 previous earnings figure used in the 10th Dec 2018 RNS. This may partly be due to the fall in chrome price. However, it may be that the £9 per chrome ton profit figure is skewed (reduced) for 18/19 due to the fact that DCM chrome was,I understand, loss making certainly for the fist half year and possibly into the second half of the year. I would therefore suggest that the annual earnings will be higher than my calculated figure of £2,7000,00 and hopefully closer to the £4,300,00 figure for 19/20.

Windsor chrome is 100% owned, so all earnings to Jubilee.

This is based upon my own calculations and please correct me if I have my any obvious errors or anyone wants to add additional thoughts to this.

I will look at the other projects separately.

Regards, BB2.

Hi,

Following last weeks results, I am trying to piece together the JLP jigsaw and do a revenue/earnings forecast for y/e 30th June 2020. As Shard recently stated it is not easy. Regarding Windsor PGM

Y/E June 2019. Nil production.
Page 9 of the annual report however states £660 per oz revenue, £316 per oz cost, £344 per oz profit. However, this is more complicated than Inyoni PGM as I understand we pay Eland a fixed processing fee and split the earnings under a profit share with Jubilee retaining the (as far as I am aware unknown) majority.

Targeted production 30,000 PGM oz per annum.
Stated production so far 1,346 PGM oz for Aug 19 and 5,337 PGM oz for Sept (compared to targeted 2,500 oz per month).

For my calculations, I am simply assuming the fixed processing fee is the same as the Inyoni cost of £316 per oz and an assumed profit split of 67/33 in Jubilee's favour.

Using the stated £660 per oz PGM REVENUE this gives a projection 19/20 of £19,800,000 based upon targeted 30,000 oz .
Using the stated £344 per oz PGM PROFIT (EARNINGS) this gives a projection 19/20 of £6,914,000 (67% of £10,320,000) based upon targeted 30,000 oz.

This is based upon my own calculations and please correct me if I have my any obvious errors or anyone wants to add additional thoughts to this. Obviously my calculations are assuming a processing fee payable to Eland of £316 per oz and a 67/33 profit split to Jubilee along with targeted production of 30,000 oz pa. Should production be maintained closer to the September figure of 5,337 then this will significantly increase projected revenue and earnings. Shard did state in the recent broker note that Windsor production could possibly be double the target production.

I will look at the other projects separately,

Regards, BB2.

Hi,

Following last weeks results, I am trying to piece together the JLP jigsaw and do a revenue/earnings forecast for y/e 30th June 2020. As Shard recently stated it is not easy. Starting with HERNIC/INYONI PGM;

Y/E June 2019 produced 23,847 oz PGM, generating £14.90m revenue (suggesting £624 per oz revenue).
Page 9 of the annual report however states £660 per oz revenue, £316 per oz cost, £344 per oz profit.

23,847 oz is below 2,500 oz pm (30,000 oz per annum) targeted production. The recent RNS re Inyoni stated a planned 20% production efficiency increase as we not operate the feed input. I have therefore calculated July 19 to Nov 19 production as 9,936 (23,847 divided by 12 months times 5 months) and Dec 19 to June 20 production as 16,692 (23.847 divided by 12 months times 120% efficiency increase times 7 months). this equates to production of 26,628 PGM oz for July 19 to June 20. This is my minimum target , subject to no production problems. My maximum would be 27,436 (using increased production target of 2,500 oz per month for Dec 19 to June 20 and adding this to the above 9,936 July 19 to Nov 19 figure.

Using the stated £660 per oz PGM REVENUE this gives a projected 19/20 min of £17,574,480 and projected max of £18,107,760.
Using the stated £344 per oz PGM PROFIT (EARNINGS) this gives a projected 19/20 min of £9,160,032 and projected max of £9,437,984.

Inyoni is 100% owned, so all earnings to Jubilee.

This is based upon my own calculations and please correct me if I have my any obvious errors or anyone wants to add additional thoughts to this.

I will look at the other projects separately.

Regards, BB2.

GB33,

Good post.

You comments do lead me to another question. Are we expecting this year's AGM (due in a month or so, announcement of date in poss two weeks) to be in UK? With general lack of recent newsflow and 2018 drilling "under wraps" and the recent asset manager not being disclosed, I would suggest some very unhappy shareholders should the AGM revert back to being elsewhere.

Regards, BB2.