Member Info for Billyboy2fromiii

Hi Tiger,

Thanks for reply,

I just find it strange that they have previously disclosed as they have broken thresholds and it is now more than two moths since last disclosure. If they are still selling, I believe they must still be at over 6% (i.e. sold less than 3m ish) but this doesn't really go with the suggestion that their selling is responsible for the downward share price. For my research, they also seemed pretty good at disclosure from their selling SHG. BB2.

Asa....

We have already invested into NRR via the loan note. We can covert to equity at our election but will not have to pay again to convert. W3 will receive our return on this investment from the coupon from the loan note until we convert to equity. Once we convert to equity the the coupon stops and we, like any shareholder, receive a return as a shareholder from any dividends declared by NRR from any profits that they are making. BB2

Hi MD,

Surely there is no point in converting early. While we have the loan note, we will receive the coupon as a guaranteed return from our investment. When we concert, we become a shareholder in which case our return will come from any declared dividends. We will not receive a share of revenue only a share of profits if a dividend is declared. If NRR are looking to grow their business in the early years then they are likely to reinvest profits rather than pay out dividends. As a shareholder, The value of our shareholding will (hopefully) increase as NRR grows but we will not receive an income until dividends are declared. On that basis, as we invested to receive an income to pay towards our costs and not have to rely upon continual placings etc, then surely we will not convert early and rather continue to receive the coupon as an income until such time that any declared dividends are higher that the said coupon.

That is my understanding... BB2.

Tiger,

SC last notification was 15th Sept at 6.9%. They have previously been pretty good at notifications that thresholds have been crossed. To go below 6% would mean selling about 3m shares in over two months. Not so sure myself that they are still selling. Anyone keeping an eye on trading amounts? BB2.

Hi Sparticus,

I don't think that is strictly correct as we are (I assume still are) working to a 15 year mine plan with 6m ore tonnes per year.

I think it is more about the positive results changing the mine plan. For example in the PFS, years 13, 14 and 15 included inferred rather than indicated. The 2018 results will not actually increase the 6m ore tonnes but it should show all indicated rather than inferred. Likewise, years 4-10 UG rather than OP. The 2018 results should, as you say, optimise the (cheaper) OP mine rather than have to use the (more expensive) UG. This, as I understand, is critical as it throws off more profit in the early (first 10?) when we pay lower taxes. Obviously, the mine plan will be rescheduled to get the more profitable (higher grade, OP, lower cost) stuff out first...

Obviously, there is the chance that the mine plan could be extended to more than 15 years but I seem to remember that Red Lee stated that this would have a minimal effect on NPV due to the discounting factor over such a long period.

That is my simple understanding, BB2.

Hi all,

Thanks CBS for your posts today, some good stuff.

I have re-read the RNS for both the 2017 and 2018 drill seasons.

2017, we have an RNS on 9th Jan 2018 regarding the final drill results for 2017. On 26th Jan 2018 we have an RNS regarding the resource update being initiated. On 20th March 2018 we had RNS confirmed the 50% mineral resource increase.

2018, we had RNS 5th Nov 2018 to say 2018 drill season completed. On 6th Feb 2019 we had RNS to say Alex Stewart Lab had verified the results (the second validation after our own validation). This RNS stated that a third step (the second verification) was needed to produce the Mineral Resource Estimate. We do not appear to have then had confirmation that this third step had been completed and as we do know we have not had the resulting MRE.

BB2

Hi Northern,

Pretty much agree with your comments.

Guesswork re the copper, I think me and your were at odds regarding when full capacity would be reached. Don't think you will be too far out with your 2,400 tonnes for y/e 06/2021.

Bullster on the other site has made a reference regarding research of the Cobalt and is using a ratio of 1:8.6 so pretty similar to you. If you are both in the ball park area this makes a significant addition to earnings, Obviously more so when Road, then Elephant, really kick in.

BB2.

Hi Northern,

How much copper are you thinking we will produce for y/e 30/06/2021?

Obviously, it was stated that Roan will deliver first concentrate in Q1 21.

BB2

Jonah...

Appreciate it is difficult to calculate with any accuracy. However, if approx 85% is on long term fixed margin contract as 15-18% margin and approx 15% is obviously as per last year ($3 profit?)....

Assuming sale price of $100 ??? does that mean we get $15 to $18 from the $100 per tonne sale price on 85% of the 90k and approx $3 on the other 15% ???

BB2

Jammer,

Thank you for clearing that up.

I have re-read the RNS's from Aug and agree with you. The 250k is capacity pm which means....

Jubilee will have the ability to produce in excess of 90 000 tonnes of saleable chrome concentrate per month under protected operational margins and adding to its existing PGM resources.........

BB2

Hi Northern Shark,

my exact notes (after "Windsor 8 has started to produce concentrate and other construction in Q2 2021") read "will be 250k tonnes pm chrome".... Upon reading that, I suggest that refers to tonnes production of chrome but cannot be 100%. Portal has commented that it could be processing capacity of 250k tonnes pm???? The Q3 2020 RNS of 12 October stated chrome production of 136,162 tonnes of chrome. Can anyone else clarify this please???

BB2.

Further to Northern Sharks excellent summary, my highlights were......

Current year should see (barring unforeseen eventualities) significant increase in PGM (Q1 15k oz already produced as compared to 50k oz for whole of last year). 75-80% feed for Inyoni from new feed from chrome operations so only 20% from existing tailings which extends the life of tailings (well past 10 yrs). As Inyoni expands, costs will reduce and targeting cost of below $400 per oz.

Current year should see dramatic increase in chrome results due to transitioning to long term fixed margin contracts. last year margin $3 per lb. 85% now on fixed margin contracts at 4-5 times this margin ($15-$18 margin). Will be significant contributor. These supply contracts reduces the need to use our own tailings which obviously extends life of own tailings. Chrome capacity will ultimately be 250k oz pm (this compares to 136k oz in Q32020) not sure on exact date though.

Currently producing copper from tails but Project Roan targets 12k copper units pa (reach full capacity in 2021) and Project Elephant 40% bigger targeting 16-18k copper units. Copper target until cost $4000 per unit. High margin, very bullish on copper. This also excludes the cobalt which is a copper by-product.

Zinc to recommence end Q1 2021 with significant production Q3 2021.

Leon very specific that all the above growth will come from cash flow and debt. No equity needed.

Overall, a much more professional presentation than some of the previous ones from a couple of years back.

BB2.



Lots more potential in Zambia with a further 1.5b to go after (compared to already secured 270m). The Jubilee Way "will travel" but dramatic expansion opportunities available before needed to go into other countries and actively in debates currently.

Hi Northern Shark,

Just to say that is a great summary. Very much agrees with my notes. Difficult to make good notes quickly as well as listen, so thank you.

I have checked this against my notes to compare our understanding....

Your dates regarding Project Roan are obviously 2021 rather than 2020. My notes agreed with you regarding first concentrate being end Q1 2021. However, I only noted full capacity in 2021 where your noted full capacity in Q2 2021 (not sure who is correct??)

Regarding funding, your notes say Roan and Elephant both fully funded whereas I just noted Roan currently fully funded. I may have missed the comment on Elephant????

Other than that those minor points, my notes matched yours. Thanks again for posting.

BB2.

I have asked about returning to quarterly reporting rather than half yearly.

BB2

TDTT,

Do you agree with my question to Crazy? Basically, just now looking at FFS option in the PFS (producing two concentrates) and the TS is now off the table?

BB2

Hi Crazy,

Yes, I understand that. So if we are now hopefully going to produce two concentrates, does that mean we are going down the FFS option (higher initial cost but greater NPV) and not the TS option (lower initial cost but lower NPV).?

Red Lee had previously suggested the likely route may be TS option for first few years to get into production at lower cost and then spend some of the $ to move to the FFS option to increase revenues.

Just wondering if the recent development re two concentrates mean the TS is off the table and we are just now looking at FFS.

BB2

TDTT,

Thank you.

Recent discussion has been whether we can produce a separate copper concentrate. In which case AH has spoken of the current non-binding off take agreement. However, should we go down the TS option initially (and then move to the FFS option later) the PFS shows we do not receive any credit for any by-products including copper. So how can we do an off take (hopefully soon binding) if we are not officially going to receive any initial credit for the copper from the toll smelter?

Just trying to piece things together....BB2

PFS RNS dated 26th FEB 19...

Payable nickel for TS Option projected to be 24,306 tonnes per annum.
Payable nickel (plus credits for copper, cobalt, platinum palladium) for the FFS Option will average 29,155 nickel equivalent tonnes.

potato,

Thank you, but...

45k times 16k is $720m divide by 1.31 equals £549m not £54m. However, I seem to remember that somewhere quoted between 25k (concentrate option) and 29K (smelter option) as the production from 6m tonnes of ore (is that something to do with stripping ratios etc)??

BB2

Hi,

Again, just checking my understanding....

We are looking to process 6m tonnes of ore per annum. The Nickel (only) grade appears to be 0.75%. But how many tonnes of nickel are we expecting to produce per annum (I dont really get stripping ratios etc which I believe has an effect rather than a simple 6,000,000 times 0.75%)???

Anyone got a handle on this please.

Regards, BB2.