Member Info for Billyboy2fromiii

TDT,

Thank you for explanation.

Will be interesting watching the nickel stock levels and nickel price over the next few weeks etc.

Thanks again.

BB2

TDT,

Thank you for reply. I thought the first cases in China were on 31st December? So why do you suggest this impacted rising nickel stocks from 14th Nov? Looking at the chart, there was a massive increase from 14th Nov to 31st Dec. Yes, this increase did then continue through Jan and Feb but I struggle to see this explanation for prior to 31st Dec?

I know you follow this, so value your opinion.

Thanks.

BB2

TDT,

Thank you. I agree with you now, had missed the 9m being cancelled. Less outstanding than I was thinking.

Any thoughts on how low the nickel stocks will go? I know you follow this. The stock level did drop a couple of years ago but then rebounded strongly. What was different then to now, for the same not to happen again?

BB2

TDT,

Thank you for reply. However, I do not agree with your figures.

The figure that I am using is stated in the Interim Results to 30 June 21, so I assume is correct. Since 30 June there have been the three amounts totalling 13,000.

I cannot see any reference to outstanding warrants at the end of any RNS.

BB2

TDT,

I had the o/s warrants at 29,022,550.

42,022,550 (30th June 21) less 13,000,000 (3m, 5m 5m).

Have I missed something ?

BB2

Latest Views & News
EPIC code: JLP
Jubilee Metals – half-year operational and financial update, still a Buy?
By Tom Winnifrith & Steve Moore | Thursday 10 February 2022

Disclosure: I own shares in one or more of the stocks mentioned. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from *************). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Jubilee Metals (JLP) states that it “is pleased to announce its unaudited operational results for the six months to 31 December 2021” and that it looks forward to “the next six months with the full impact of the Inyoni facility being felt, as well as the targeted ramp-up at Roan enabling us to take another major step in our commitment to achieve annual copper production of 25 000 tonnes”. So what of a current 16.3p share price, £396 million market capitalisation?

The valuation compares to noted half-year attributable earnings of £19 million, with the group though noting “scheduled production downtime during expansion at Inyoni” and the earnings comparing to a prior half-year more than £40 million. It also noted the Inyoni investment enables the new integrated facility to produce up to 44,000 PGM ounces (previously 30,000 PGM ounces) and 615,000 tonnes of additional chrome concentrate per annum (complete rebuild of old Hernic chrome plant) and “is the culmination of Jubilee’s extensive investment into achieving class leading efficiencies”.

Those are particularly positive since the group does need to start generating the cash to justify the valuation and (possibly, much) more – with the ‘investment’ made, it noting “cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period under review standing at £21.7 million (ZAR 466 million), compared with £19.6 million (ZAR 384 million) at the year ended 30 June 2021”.

However, last month production 66% up compared with the half-year period monthly and the further potential such as Project Roan see us continue to consider, as per our December 15.8p offer price tip, a full-year pre-tax profit rising above £50 million and £100 million next year is quite realistic. We’ll watch out for that cash flow (and for, the inappropriate for a business at this stage, Chairman Colin Bird to make his promised departure) but currently still at up to 17p, targeting 25p+, Buy.

BB2

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/JLP/six-month-operations-update-h2-2021/15319159

BB2

At least the Finance Director has put his hands in his pocket to buy some additional shares. Not many granted, but you would hope that he is confident that there will be no liquidity crunch after buying shares in the open market. It is his job to oversee the financials, after all.

BB2

Would be good to know.

By end Q3 poured approx 70k, first 11 weeks of Q4 poured approx 12k, last 2 weeks of Q4 poured approx 5k. On that limited info, the last 2 weeks were the probably best 2 weeks!

SP,

I have listened to it twice. It is the most positive interview I have heard regarding AMC ever. The fact that it is from a pretty well respected third party as opposed to RY/AH etc is even better. With the two articles in The Times and now this, are things finally beginning to turn positive? It will be interesting if todays’s rise holds or even is extended over the next few days.
Good look all. As Alan Green says, Keep hold of them shares!

BB2

Hi Adam,

These are the questions that I have submitted;

Dugbe.

The RNS dated 4th June details that, upon the 49% earn-in, the parties will undertake to enter a Joint Venture agreement. In this case, does this mean that under this JV, HUM will be accountable for 51% of any future costs incurred by the JV (such a pre-production CAPEX)?

The RNS dated 4th June 2020 also states that both parties have the right, subject to certain protections, for HUM to convert to a 51% controlling interest in ARX (or any then listed parent company). Please explain how this would work, especially as a shareholding above 30% in a Company would usually mean an offer is made to purchase the remaining shares in that Company.

Yanfolila

The RNS dated 29th November stated “In recent days there has been unrest and illegal road blocks in the region. This activity has impacted the Company's ability to safely continue operations at the mine and as such Yanfolila is temporarily offline until conditions allow”. Can you please explain why other Companies operating in Mali did not seem to encounter the same unrest and did not have to close operations.

A question for Anthony Kocken

The RNS dated 21st April 2021 stated that “Anthony's initial focus will be to support the site in driving operational performance improvements at Yanfolila” Please can you explain how, in the first and second quarter following your appointment, production had been severely affected due to excavator equipment availability. Surely it is your responsibility to ensure that such things do not happen? How did the problems regarding equipment go unnoticed?

2022 Outlook

After two successive years of missed production and AISC targets, why should shareholders have confidence that you will meet production and AISC targets for 2022?

Director’s Dealing

Confidence in management is low, in my opinion. If management are confident for 2022 and beyond, why are they not buying shares in Hummingbird in the open market with their own money (Thomas Hill’s purchase of 50,000 shares on 31st Jan is noted). This would be a massive show of confidence to long-term shareholders.

BB2

Great interview, well worth a listen....

Astar, you should be able to listen, i did without problem.

BB2

Apro,

....VEIN is 100% responsible for fundraising albeit at 51% VEIN ownership....

Haven't we all just agreed that post DFS, VEIN is 100% responsible for fundraising as it has 100% (net gov't and Anglo pacific) ownership ??? But HUM will own 51% of VEIN via holding 51% shares in VEIN

BB2.

bonker,

apologies for my ignorance but what % of NPV are you using at DFS stage? Are you using approx 33% of NPV ?

$874m x 90% = $786m = £579m x 33% = £191m x 51% = £97m.

Sorry for being pedantic but just want to understand where you are getting your suggested c£100m figure post DFS from.

BB2.

Kad,

The 4th June RNS states....

Subject to ARX demonstrating initial funding of at least US$10m (including the US$2m Initial Deposit) within the exclusivity period, ARX has the right to operate the Project under the oversight of a joint management committee and to earn into a 49 per cent economic interest in the Project (net of any interests of the Government of Liberia and Anglo Pacific Group Plc) over a two year period through:

So yes, the 51%/49% is NET of interest of Gov't of Liberia (10%) and also the 2% (can rise to 2.5%) Net Smelter Return Royalty of Anglo Pacific.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/HUM/us15-million-royalty-funding-agreement-iys4roh910wuukh.html

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/HUM/earn-in-agreement-with-arx-on-dugbe-gold-project-asu474t1en76s1e.html

BB2

Bushy,

Thanks for confirming. Looks like we are all on the same page (other than me not explaining the current ARX position).

Thanks to all, some good stuff this am.

BB2.

gold,

Your opinion matches my understanding.....

BB2

bonker,

......Based on the post-tax $874m NPV @ $1,800 Gold, Dugbe is already worth c£50m right now but will be worth c£100m to HUM (25p) on the DFS in April........

Apologies, but can you please explain why you say the Dugbe is already worth c£50m right now and why you now feel it will be worth c£100m on the DFS (in April). Just trying to understand your thoughts and improve my understanding...

BB2

Bushy,

.....We do not own 51% of vein's issued equity and contrary to a few posts in here, we can't sell down any vein shares as we did with cora, simply because we don't own any......

I have NOT stated that we currently own 51% of VEIN's equity. WE DO NOT, CURRENTLY.

However, the RNS dated 4th June clearly states...

On being granted the 49 per cent economic interest in the Project, the parties undertake to enter into a customary joint venture agreement, as well as both having the right, subject to certain protections, to convert the Company's 51 per cent controlling interest in the Project into a 51 per cent controlling interest in ARX or any then listed parent company....

So my understanding based upon reading this is that ONCE THE DFS IS COMPLETE, HUM will have a 51% controlling in VEIN. At that time, surely we would be able take part (or not) in equity raises and also have the option to reduce stake by selling shares in VEIN.

All subsequent RNSs regarding Dugbe DO refer to the original RNS dated 4th June 2020.

So can you please explain why my understanding is incorrect and explain the reference to your understanding.

Regards, BB2

Bushy,

Are you sure on this?

How I read it, VEIN do NOT earn their 49% until after the DFS is complete at which time HUM's 51% controlling interest in DUGBE will be reversed into VEIN (IS states that VEIN will hold 100% of Dugbe) in return for a 51% controlling interest in VEIN. That is how I read the RNSs. Can you tell me what RNS your understanding is based upon please.

BB2.