Greggs on a roll as pandemic uncertainties bite17 Feb 2021 19:40
The UK trade department’s comments about selling the EU “innovative jams” in the post-Brexit era might have been widely mocked, but looking at Gregg’s share price chart over the past five years, they don’t seem quite so mad. The bakery chain’s market value tripled from 2015 as it rode a wave of successful new products, encapsulated in the launch of its vegan sausage roll at the beginning of 2019.
Yet despite its best efforts Greggs, like every other food takeaway, suffered as the pandemic shut offices and shops in 2020. It’s trading update Wednesday, however, offered some hope to investors of a revival in the new year. December’s like-for-like sales were 85 per cent of the previous year’s number and an online partnership with Just Eat meant digital sales doubled in the fourth quarter. Shares reacted well, rising around 10 per cent.
It wasn’t all good news though. Boasting that the company achieved 85 per cent of last year’s sales is, of course, just another way of saying revenues fell 15 per cent, and Greggs only managed to open a net 28 new shops in 2020. Online, which is still a new game for the company, accounted for a diminutive 5.6 per cent of sales.
How you think about Greggs’ future really depends on whether you believe 2022 will be remotely like 2019. On the plus side, its £37m of net cash and fresh £100m revolving credit facility offer space for further expansion. With commercial landlords across the country seemingly desperate for dependable tenants, there will be plenty of opportunity to cut costs on the 100 net new stores it plans to open this year.
The half-filled meat pasty view is that, if working from home trends become habits, Greggs will be forced to rethink its high street and transport hub locations. Given chief medical officer Chris Witty raised the spectre of further winter lockdowns at Tuesday’s Downing Street press conference, it’s pretty easy to make the case that pre-Covid working arrangements will be slow to return, if at all.
There’s no doubt that Greggs’ business should be fine, but even if it does grab market share during the pandemic, how big will that market be once we’re allowed to venture out into the world again? With its shares priced at 21 times 2022’s forecast earnings, the innovative baker still feels expensive when the answer to that question is still out of focus.