Member Info for billy101203

Profitable

Good post and fair.

Production is the key simples. As for peeps saying we have to wait for flows to settle nonsense. As RNS stated 100% oil cut (no water). Hence flows can settle within 24hrs and being a offset well migration would have been reduced pressure no sooner as we perforated.

Since no one can answer when oil is collected/sold. As its only turned 0930hrs in the US and can't get the reply yet. Then some simple maths guestimate my help predict flow rate....or even confuse us more.

2 Battery tanks hold 800 barrels
If emptied every 30 days gives 26bopd
If emptied every 21 days gives 38bopd
If emptied every 14 days gives 57bopd
If emptied every 7 days gives 114bopd

15-Jan-21 10:21:21 0.70 1,500,000 Buy* 0.60 0.70 10.50k O
15-Jan-21 10:21:09 0.60 1,500,000 Sell* 0.60 0.70 9,000 O

looks like somones's calculator is missing a few quid!

I concurr

News flowing and keeps on coming. Nice to get a confirmation of oil cut. Now the placing has been traded over the last few days so price should stable and I hope it doesn't retreat back. It did take longer to go through and the spread was used alot to control sp movement shame. For a moment I thought we will hit 0.0085p and the wait on triggering warrents would have only been 2 weeks not 2 years. However saying that we only have to wait another 2 weeks until the 29th until warrants are coverted to ord. shares with the famous RNS saying "ranked pari passu" comes out. Unless we have mega RNS comfirming flows, need drill location identified and permitted etc masking good with the bad.

With Battery tanks in place so we should have sold some oil or are ready to sell. I can't remember if we sold oil every 7 days ,14 days , 30 days or when the truck comes around on its collection route. Suppose every well and purchaser contract is different. Just a confirmation that purchase contract is in place will do for now.

Bet 1 share Warrants issued on 8th will be converted to shares. Coupled with a few 100m in reserves.

"In the US if you don't produce you lose your oilfields and if you don't drill you lose your oilfields"

Not all wells/leases are HBP.

"In the US if you don't produce you lose your oilfields and if you don't drill you lose your oilfields"

Not all wells /leases are HBP. Simply not true. Otherwise the wells we stop producing from last west 2020 well revert back to head lease owner. I wonder how many of them were returned last year buy oil companies or sold of cheaply as long as they stayed producing.

You really need to think before you post what your told.

Anyway that said we have plenty of assets, drilled wells,oil,battery tanks, shares etc.

2021 must see a change of some sort.

Anyway as the longest time investor in NTOG.
I hope/wish we have increased out production and this SP goes to dizzy heights of 3p even 13p one day in old money pre consolidation so investors can sell.

All my long term holds and wild cards such as pharma's/gold paid off in 2020. Now we need a new CEO/approach to give this oilie a chance to payback investors. In 11 years (last 5 years adrift) we might as well have polished our drills and painted pumps and saved the money.

When marketing NTOG we should change name to" Coridal Oil & Gas" dilute to taste!

"Investors would have been told the only reason sp is this low is because of covid and look at where we are now and where the SP was in March 2020 pre covid and lockdown. We can only go up as demand comes back and we have so called old and new production to come on line"

Well warrants or no warrants they are shares that are still out there and excerisable so a soon as the SP hits a given price you can bet your bottom dollar they get sold controlling the SP.

SP may even fall back now to .3 once RNS is understood and investors have worked out who has 1st dibs on any increased share value. What would have been better if the warrant could only be exeercsied at 1.5p then we all knew SP have to go up.

After all that still no production figures on new well and no up dates on wells that have been reopened. Still can't get my head around a hedged pice of $55 dpb for 1500 delivered and then closing wells.
Not to worry we are cashflow positve now! with placing (raffle).
I did say in December palcing going on in background. Then the narrative being pushed by super poster(s) to WTI price is going up and cashflow positive we dpn't need production.
I also said a company if never cashflow positive as they just spend the money as soon as the get it. We had to have a farmin partner as we never had the money to drill simple as that. The farmin partner gave us credibilty on lease which we in turn raised funds to help complete buying the remaining WI to complete well hence delay.

£500k should buy us 1 drill at a push 2 drills. We still have alot of expenses to cover for 2020. April/May looks interesting.

However production is still key.

You never know we might see a late push.

Its production we need simples.

If I'm to believe what I'm told thaT WTI price more important than production.
Then doing my simple maths, WTI as I post is $47.14. We have made a loss since last Friday when WTI price @ 1112hrs was $48.42.
Well thank god we have production to fall back on.(or isn't that so important).
One day we will reach ecomonies of scale (equilibrium). For this to happen we need production, so roll on production and flow rates.

Looks like oil will take a battering again in new year with everything shutting down again.

You don't drill wells expecting the future price to be higher. That sort of economics is what we have be doing in reverse. Drilling over priced wells and then the price of oil drops as well as production.
You do your financials +/- todays price or the lowest price under pinned by settled flows (even accounting for declines). So production is a key factor.

9 years ago 1 well producing 1bopd @ $120 was good for a Ma and Pa outfit. If priced dropped thats it this well is over its costing you to produce. You need to produce more, business can't run on WTI figures alone. As soon as its at $60 dpb it can drop back to $50 in a blink then wheres your cashflow positive.
No such thin as a cashflow positive business. As no sooner as you get cash its spent. You either have/make money or not. If not your trading insolvent. We are a long way from being a cash rich business. Don't forget so far this year we have shut wells lost production (revenue), CEO/Directors not taking wages etc. No soon as we have a bit of money its gone paying back debt. So to cover these expenses and lost revenue we need production or WTI better go up to $1000 dpb.

I do get a feeling that flows are going to be less than expected or oil migration issues will have played their part in late reporting of flows.
Is the new PR line to keep mentioning WTI price to manage expectations.

Happy to help.

We had 2.5 times the oil when oil was at its peak and and we couldn't make it pay

"The change in the oil price is worth far more to NTOG than the extra production at Pine Mills"

We had 2.5 times the oil when oil was at its peak and and we could make it pay. So what makes you think WTI at a poxy $48.42 is better than increased production. Todays WTI is less then the agreed hedge rate we have. Since peak we now have more mouths to feed.

Any guesses?