Member Info for Billy-Bunter

Thanks, Heckler
After chatting with the broker at CS, I decided to just put in the full £50K now. Will find out later today what deal he's been able to arrange.
Will maybe buy another block of these in August if things continue to look good.
Bill

I made a £20K buy yesterday at an ask of £2.25. I'm going to buy another £25K this morning, so it will be interesting to see what price Charles Stanley can get for me - I'll let you all know. Then I'm going to watch this for a week or so and probably buy a further £25K again.
Bill.

Utahsaimts,
I do have an expectation - £10 in 18 months. But, I was very interested to see what others think, hence my questions.
Thanks,
Bill

Thank you, Aberystwyth
My own target is £10 a share in 18 months time. But, I'm very happy for that to be beaten/exceeded
Keeping my fingers crossed.
Bill

Thank you, Aberystwyth
No, I'm not looking to disagree at all. I have a 6-figure sum invested here and about to ad another 30,000 shares or so to my holding. I thus have a vested interest in SAR doing well.
My only other question, is how long do you think it will take for your target £30 a share to be achieved?
Thank you,
Bill

Note to myself £30 a share is a £2BN market cap.
B.

Dear Aberystwyth,
Can you please let me/us know how you are arriving at the £30 per share valuation and on what timescale you hope this will be achieved? And, I'm not setting up for a snotty exchange about this. I'm genuinely interested to know how you arrived at that figure.
Best,
Bill

Thank you, Toth!
You just answered a nagging question I had at the back of my head on this….
Are you able to suggest a valuation against that 2.75% income stream?
Bill

P.S. The only thing that left me wondering in terms of future value was the cap on the royalties. Unless I've miss-understood, the total royalties payable are $319M, of which SAR's cut would be 27.5% or about $88M. Its not an earth shattering amount but we would get a multiple on that I believe.

For anyone who is interested, here is the link to the 10Q.

https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001290149/42181bc5-920b-4b6d-9db5-04dbb50a5390.pdf

The report was issued on 6th May, some 3-4 week AFTER the announcement of the proposed GSK acquisition of Sierra.
Bill

Regarding GSK/Sierra and the future of SRA737 I had a look at the Sierra 10-Q quarterly report when I was researching into SAR more deeply recently.
There are quite a few references to SRA737 (14 I think) but the one that stood out was/is on page 18. Its reads "We continue to evaluate several options for combination studies with momelotinib, SRA515 and SRA737 and hope to initiate one or more of them in 2022".
To my eyes the message is that Sierra wants to potentially progress SRA737 in combination with momelotinib within this year. Obviously though there is a question as to whether GSK will also feel the same way. MY assumption is that GSK probably will want to progress the compounds/studies and so I think (like Heckler) that the risk of GSK ditching this or putting it on the shelf are small. I think getting this wrong and GSK passing over SRA737 is a major downside risk, albeit a small one. Do others agree with this assumption? Comments please.
Bill

Lazarus,
The £50K buy wasn't me. I'm moving some cash over to Charles Stanley now and will probably make a buy next week.
And, I went back and found the RMM Post from 7th January that another board member here suggested. Interestingly his thoughts were broadly the same as mine, off the back of my research. That is to say if things go well with SRA737/GSK/Sierra and the P1 trial, we could see 20p a share old money, a tenner (£10) new money - equates to about a £670M market cap. I think this is achievable if everything goes well in the 18 month time period I'm looking at. Yes, the share price will swing up and down between news releases, but the overall trend will be upwards. One can choose to hold through that or do some trading on the highs and lows. As for the suggestion to try and not think about/predict the share price, I think that is just 'nuts'. You don't invest the sort of money I'm playing with, without giving the matter some serious consideration. Yes, the real action may very well by with some P2 and P3 trial activity, but that is beyond the 18month timeline I'm looking to deploy my money
Bill.
P.S. I am actually a longer term holder - I had about a million shares for a number of years, but got a lot more interested in SAR last year. Things are hotting up.

An extract from RMM's post of 7th Jan.
What is in danger of being missed is that we have tiers of news that will add value in different proportions. For me the highest tier is 737 going back into the clinic and 1801 and 1802 going into P1. All 3 will add significant value to the SP by which I mean multiples of where we are currently. 737 should take us to 10p and beyond, 1801 to 15p and 1802 to 18 possibly 20p. The key events/issues are that Momo is a success for Sierra when they get their data read in Feb. That will give Dilly the leverage to raise funds and get institutional approval to go beyond their one drug pipeline and all the risks inherent in that strategy. I don’t see 737 coming back unless Momo is a disaster.

Thanks for the replies so far. I have done my own research and wasn't looking for financial advise. I've satisfied myself that over a reasonable time period (say to the end of next year - I'm Ok to let this ride for say 18 months), the share prices stands a very good chance of going up. The question is by how much depending upon a couple of key pieces of news, those of interest to me being the GSK/SRA737 activity and the outcome of the planned trial. I agree that purchases below £3 are a good place to be and I'm frankly kicking myself I didn't buy more at the low £1 levels, but I do try and spread out my purchases a bit over time.
We got to £5 (10p) old money last year when I think frankly people and the market got a bit carried away. I think there were a lot of people who got caught up thinking we would have a Covid treatment on far shorter timescales than would actually ever be the case. Even so though, my own view is the share price could easily reach £5 again with some descent news. But, I also think there is the scope to go above that, I'm just trying to size up by how much - hence me asking what others think (rather than asking for advice...).
Thanks,
Bill

All, I've been in and out of Sareum over the last 18 months, doing very well - I sold out at about 8p old money - £4 new money. I started buying in again at about £1.30 and bought some more shares this week to take me up to about 140,000 shares. I'm probably going to drop a further £70K on these in the next 2 weeks and then hold at that position. Naturally I'm very interested in where the share price could go and believe that over a reasonable period it will go up.
Do we have a feeling where the share price could land if GSK give the go ahead for SRA737 and we have a successful CTA outcome?
Can we please keep any feedback sensible. I know with good news and a fair wind this is worth quite a bit more than the current £150M market cap, but I'm also a bit sceptical of some of the stratospheric increases I've seen mentioned on here without any thought based upon fact to back them up.
Comments please.
Bill.

Thank you, Warthog. A 27.5% cut of the pie.
Keeping my fingers crossed.
Bill

This is really interesting - thank you for sharing.
Can someone in the know please explain Sareums relationship with the CRT Pioneer Fund and what their cut of the payments from Sierra (soon to be GSK) are likely to be as SRA737 hopefully now progresses?
Thanks,
Bill

If things were about to go to 'Hell in a hand basket" and I were the HNWI I'd be selling my shares, fast. The HNWI owns enough that in that case I think we'd be seeing a much, much bigger drop in the share price.

I suspect things will be OK - we just need to give this some time.

Billy

Phew! Halfwit status avoided….

B.

Is the 6-12 months correct? I agree in the normal course of events. But things now are not normal and I’d understood that the Gov had set an aim of putting new drugs/treatments through the process in 100 days.

If I’ve totally misunderstood then don’t be afraid to call me a halfwit!

Billy

Thoth, supporting your analysis, I’ve accumulated about 7.5M shares since late February, already owning about 0.5M predating that. Probably made about 10 separate purchases over that time as the situation and news has developed. I’m at about a 2.5p average. I think there are quite a few of us out there who’ve been steadily buying at a similar scale.

Billy