Member Info for Billy-Bunter

May I please ask, Fax, how you realistically expect us to achieve a £2nd valuation? I’ve been looking at this share a lot and Whilst I think there is some good money to be made here, I just don’t ever see Sareum reaching that kind of a high….
Bill

I think we'll see modest increase and then a bit of a retrace, noting spectacular. Because yes, I think quite a bit of any CTA accouchement is already priced it. We're more likely to see some material share price movement from the final outcome of the trial, which is quite some months away.
Bill.

I do tend to agree. Having been along for this ride, I think a significant driver in the big share price increases last year were driven by a lot of the Covid treatment 'euphoria' that was rife in the market. Several companies had seen their share prices go to the moon as they provided or released services and products that were Covid related. And, many investors were on the hunt for another of these opportunities to make serious money. I think its started to become apparent that Sareum had missed the boat for the big money on Covid last autumn, as vaccine protection started to take effect properly. It was at that point I decided to sell almost all of my 12M shares and wait to see what would happen, before buying back in this year post consolidation. I do think there is money still to be made on Covid (and related respiratory) and it could add to Sareum's share price, but in a much more modest way now rather than the huge increases some shares saw in the last 2 years. I think the big increases for Sareum are more likely to be driven by SRA737 activity (hopefully) with GSK and the early trial outcomes for other 1801/1802 indications
Just my opinion.
Bill

For GSK Sierra probably represented a very small and easy business to do due diligence on, with no anti-trust type issues. So, very easy to execute on quickly, unlike a big Pharma merger or takeover that can take many months to a year or so.
Bill

Momelotinib was/is a product that is basically ready to go. So I think we can at least say that the valuation was dominated by that asset. I think your 85% sounds about right, with (hopefully) SRA737 looking like a potential lottery ticket win to GSK if it all pains out going forwards.
Bill

In any case, I think it’s unlikely to be the same firm that Parker is joining. It would probably a conflict of interests.
Bill

We just don’t know…. sareum haven’t given out any information on suppliers….
B

It’s a buying opportunity. I’ll watch for a few days to see if it drops further but I’m tempted to buy an additional 20,000 shares….
B

“Wouldn't be surprised to see us settle (without news) on market cap of £250M”

Your dreaming…. That’s not going to happen without some good , very meaningful news.

Bill

Please don't stop, Mandit
I do find some of you posts a bit mad - - but they also make me laugh out loud, which brightens my day.....
Bill

Assuming that GSK do decide to progress SRA737, how might we all find out about that? I've not looked at any GSK announcements or annual/quarterly reports, so I don't know whether as standard practice they comment on new compounds they are progressing? Or, whether they only do this when a given compound is at a certain stage in its progression? I wonder what the chances are that we may not hear anything until Sareum puts out an announcement that they've received a millstone payment with the first dosing a patient in the expected trial work?
Does anyone actually know how GSK tend to operate in this regard?
Bill

Its all a guessing game, WIP. And that is my best guess.
I'm assuming that a 'big' offer won't come through until trials are at an end and Sareum is close to have a clearable product for 510K and CE approval, just as is happening with Sierra. Based upon what I know of the process and the timelines, 3 years seems about right.
Bill

I do think this will end with a takeover, but not until the trials are close to an end or at an end and a product is thus close to being 510K ready. Probably at least 3 years away...
Bill

It may be a crude way of looking at it, but the market cap at which other deals in the sector have been made can be used as a bench mark.
Bill

Sadly, I'm not sure I ever see multi-billion pound valuations coming through. Its not to do with whether or not the compounds Sareum is progressing fail or succeed. But rather, if one does assume they are going to succeed, I think Sareum will get taken out with an offer as things are on the way up. It thus may well be that there is an inevitable glass ceiling for the share price and valuation. Perhaps similar to the $2BN or so figure tabled for Sierra.
Very happy though if there is a different outcome.
In the short term though, there needs to be some good news from GSK and a good P1 trial outcome, or this will turn into a damp firework.
Bill

Oops! Yes I did - tying a bit too fast there, I think.
Bill

Wolfiebill,
If you can afford to hold for 18months I think you could be looking at a pretty descent return.
Bill.

That would be nice, but I think we'll need some good positive news to hit £4.80. That said, I hope it happens.
B.

Blueandwhite,
The dealers at Charles Stanley are utterly professional and so wont comments on shares with the execution only service I use. I just decided, that the share price has 'probably' found a floor and will see a modest increase from here over the next few weeks. I did think for a while it would drop back into the high £1s, but I've changed my mind on that now (unless of course some very bad news come through). So, I just decided to put the whole lot in now. The CS dealer called me back about 20 minutes ago and said he'd put the £50K through at £2.34, which I'm happy with.
I've got some further funds freeing up in August. If this still looks good then I'll probably buy a further £75K then.
Thanks,
Bill

Thanks for that, Colbaltblue....
Made me laugh out loud!
B.