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For GSK Sierra probably represented a very small and easy business to do due diligence on, with no anti-trust type issues. So, very easy to execute on quickly, unlike a big Pharma merger or takeover that can take many months to a year or so.
Bill
Momelotinib was/is a product that is basically ready to go. So I think we can at least say that the valuation was dominated by that asset. I think your 85% sounds about right, with (hopefully) SRA737 looking like a potential lottery ticket win to GSK if it all pains out going forwards.
Bill
In any case, I think it’s unlikely to be the same firm that Parker is joining. It would probably a conflict of interests.
Bill
We just don’t know…. sareum haven’t given out any information on suppliers….
B
It’s a buying opportunity. I’ll watch for a few days to see if it drops further but I’m tempted to buy an additional 20,000 shares….
B
“Wouldn't be surprised to see us settle (without news) on market cap of £250M”
Your dreaming…. That’s not going to happen without some good , very meaningful news.
Bill
Please don't stop, Mandit
I do find some of you posts a bit mad - - but they also make me laugh out loud, which brightens my day.....
Bill
Assuming that GSK do decide to progress SRA737, how might we all find out about that? I've not looked at any GSK announcements or annual/quarterly reports, so I don't know whether as standard practice they comment on new compounds they are progressing? Or, whether they only do this when a given compound is at a certain stage in its progression? I wonder what the chances are that we may not hear anything until Sareum puts out an announcement that they've received a millstone payment with the first dosing a patient in the expected trial work?
Does anyone actually know how GSK tend to operate in this regard?
Bill
Its all a guessing game, WIP. And that is my best guess.
I'm assuming that a 'big' offer won't come through until trials are at an end and Sareum is close to have a clearable product for 510K and CE approval, just as is happening with Sierra. Based upon what I know of the process and the timelines, 3 years seems about right.
Bill
I do think this will end with a takeover, but not until the trials are close to an end or at an end and a product is thus close to being 510K ready. Probably at least 3 years away...
Bill
It may be a crude way of looking at it, but the market cap at which other deals in the sector have been made can be used as a bench mark.
Bill
Sadly, I'm not sure I ever see multi-billion pound valuations coming through. Its not to do with whether or not the compounds Sareum is progressing fail or succeed. But rather, if one does assume they are going to succeed, I think Sareum will get taken out with an offer as things are on the way up. It thus may well be that there is an inevitable glass ceiling for the share price and valuation. Perhaps similar to the $2BN or so figure tabled for Sierra.
Very happy though if there is a different outcome.
In the short term though, there needs to be some good news from GSK and a good P1 trial outcome, or this will turn into a damp firework.
Bill
Oops! Yes I did - tying a bit too fast there, I think.
Bill
Wolfiebill,
If you can afford to hold for 18months I think you could be looking at a pretty descent return.
Bill.
That would be nice, but I think we'll need some good positive news to hit £4.80. That said, I hope it happens.
B.
Blueandwhite,
The dealers at Charles Stanley are utterly professional and so wont comments on shares with the execution only service I use. I just decided, that the share price has 'probably' found a floor and will see a modest increase from here over the next few weeks. I did think for a while it would drop back into the high £1s, but I've changed my mind on that now (unless of course some very bad news come through). So, I just decided to put the whole lot in now. The CS dealer called me back about 20 minutes ago and said he'd put the £50K through at £2.34, which I'm happy with.
I've got some further funds freeing up in August. If this still looks good then I'll probably buy a further £75K then.
Thanks,
Bill
Thanks for that, Colbaltblue....
Made me laugh out loud!
B.
Thanks, Heckler
After chatting with the broker at CS, I decided to just put in the full £50K now. Will find out later today what deal he's been able to arrange.
Will maybe buy another block of these in August if things continue to look good.
Bill
I made a £20K buy yesterday at an ask of £2.25. I'm going to buy another £25K this morning, so it will be interesting to see what price Charles Stanley can get for me - I'll let you all know. Then I'm going to watch this for a week or so and probably buy a further £25K again.
Bill.
Utahsaimts,
I do have an expectation - £10 in 18 months. But, I was very interested to see what others think, hence my questions.
Thanks,
Bill